Discussion About (3) Florida State -2 At Miami On Saturday - Line Movement

Lazy-Man · 11-12-14, 04:39 AM

Florida State defense sucks. IDC about Miami QB, there's only one name you need to know. Duke Johnson

Ballerholic · 11-12-14, 04:40 AM

I agree, I just don't see them being defeated in the regular season.

shaunovery · 11-12-14, 04:55 AM

Florida state are a better than average team with a star qb who has issues every way he turns,
You get the feeling there due a loss he can't keep pulling his team around

boomer62 · 11-12-14, 05:42 AM

Actually the line should be FLA ST -1. I'm surprised that they didn't make it -3. Haven't seen Mia play this year but they are rated high in the power rankings and I am not impressed with Fla St and they have escaped some close games. Lots of distractions with Winston.
As for Louisville the line should have been Fla St -3.5 but they opened it -7. Sometimes when the line is off the sharps come in and see the value and take the points, which is what I think happened. I remember that all the services gave out LOU too. Fla st got a few turnovers that turned that game around and were fortunate to get a win. Lou had almost 500 yards of offense and had there chances.
It seems to me that Mia may be the play but would no way call this the game of the century for Fla St. Miami also is home on a prime time Saturday night game and a big rivalry.

grease lightnin · 11-12-14, 07:43 AM

Vegas making sure Jameis doesn't have points to shave.

Smoke · 11-12-14, 08:02 AM

The oddsmakers know miami wins outright.

jjgold · 11-12-14, 08:59 AM

I am taking Flor St

Show me type bet Miami

Spedizzo · 11-12-14, 09:09 AM

I think Louisville was the right bet last week

there is no justification for how bad they played in the second half. even sharps get screwed

the way they sold out to prevent the run on the last play to leave a wide open receiver to put the dagger in at the very end was absolutely disgusting

the coach should be fired

the only reasoning I can see for the -2 line is for the factors you mentioned

Miami is at home despite an almost neutral home field for this game, but this is pretty much their Super Bowl, in-state rivalry, Duke Johnson going off, Florida State defense questionable this year, and Florida State pretty much having to grind out their last few wins under stressful late-game conditions, etc etc etc

I think Miami +2 (buy to +3 imo) is the play

Big Bear · 11-12-14, 09:18 AM

Originally posted by Lazy-Man

Florida State defense sucks. IDC about Miami QB, there's only one name you need to know. Duke Johnson

you dont care about the QB?

that is a pretty important position in football.

Florida State defense does not suck.

One dimensional running teams can be stopped if thats all they are capable of doing. Just look at how Georgia did nothing offensively against Florida.

Big Bear · 11-12-14, 09:22 AM

Originally posted by jjgold

I am taking Flor St

Show me type bet Miami

exactly. I aint buying the hype of Miami.

They tried to hype up Miami last year against Florida State too making them a top 10 team in the ranking for that game.

Miami has not won a big game in a long long time. Def a show me type bet.

Make'em prove something. All these media people saying FSU is going to lose only fires up Mr Crab Legs.

Spedizzo · 11-12-14, 09:25 AM

I don't think anything can fire up Mr. Crab legs

He won a heisman and a national title his freshman year

beat a sexual assault case

constantly gets caught and accused of things like stealing crab legs, sexual assault, point-shaving, signing autographs, etc etc but comes out of it unscathed, undefeated in his sophmore year, guaranteed to be drafted in first round when he enters the draft

kid has the world on his shoulders

Big Bear · 11-12-14, 09:27 AM

Winston says we play better when we are losing.

and the reporter ask: why do you think that is the case?

Jameis says : " B/C we like winning"

boomer62 · 11-12-14, 09:33 AM

Originally posted by Big Bear

you dont care about the QB?

that is a pretty important position in football.

Florida State defense does not suck.

One dimensional running teams can be stopped if thats all they are capable of doing. Just look at how Georgia did nothing offensively against Florida.

Their defense gave up almost 500 yards and 30 points to Louisville and ND the only 2 good teams they played this year! Their secondary is mediocre. And Georgia had almost 500 yards against Florida, it was that their Defense that didn't show up and allowed a lot of big plays and runs. WTF do you watch when you watch theses games??
And it's not about the Miami hype, it's about the vulnerabilities of Florida State. They are not a top 10 team this year. Everyone remembers last year.

Covy · 11-12-14, 10:40 AM

My thoughts:

FSU comes to play especially after the point shaving allegations. This team is fully aware of the spread.

FSU by 10

Big Bear · 11-12-14, 10:55 AM

FSU center Austin Barron is returning this week after missing several weeks.

That should give Winston some better pass protection.

Spedizzo · 11-12-14, 11:16 AM

Originally posted by Covy

My thoughts:

FSU comes to play especially after the point shaving allegations. This team is fully aware of the spread.

FSU by 10

what if Jameis purposely tries to win the game by 1?

grease lightnin · 11-12-14, 11:30 AM

Originally posted by Spedizzo

what if Jameis purposely tries to win the game by 1?

trytrytry · 11-12-14, 11:31 AM

Im not so sure that your thought that fla st -2 is a very great play but at PK it becomes some monster unit play of the year. thats is some movement but not that much value added in -2 to pk to warrant some multiple units of increase at all.

bluetooth3 · 11-12-14, 11:59 AM

Originally posted by TheMoneyShot

Here's what I don't understand...
I just don't understand the Public's Hate towards Florida State?

The public already on Miami. Why???

The line opened at some locations -2 and -2.5 Florida State. The line is now Florida State -1.5 at some locations. What does this indicate? I have a feeling this game will be a PK at game time. And for anyone who wants to hit a home run.... or your bankroll is kinda low... and you want to take a shot and hammer 1 game. You should hammer this game. If the line keeps tilting towards PK... Florida State is the play of the year.

I still can't believe the PUBLIC HATES Florida State like they do... Are they that stupid?

I am trying to figure out your thinking here. The PUBLIC is not "already on Miami" 78%+ of the action coming in is already on FSU. The line has dropped anywhere from -2.5 to -2 or -1.5. That line movement is not the "public's hatred towards Florida State, but rather "sharp" money coming in on the Home Dogs.

If you got FSU at -2.5 and it closes at pk and you feel that doubling up on your pick is your GOY, and you will take the side of Joe P and their 78%+ then I wish you all the best!

But if you got FSU at -2.5 and the game goes down to a pk, it would make me want to either stay put because someone smarter than myself knows something about this game that I dont, or play the other side to hedge out.

Im just not sure where you are seeing that the "Public" is betting on Miami when the line has hardly moved, and FSU is the team being hammered at the ticket window.

I myself will be on the Canes at home, Saturday night, +2 as I feel that taking the side of 22% in a nationally televised game where FSU -2 looks too easy is the correct play.

BOL!!

Broncos · 11-12-14, 12:46 PM

Money - don't over think it too much. If you think the line should be fla st -7 or higher do some research and determine if -1 is gift. I know it seems like a trap (line is fishy). Bottom line - miami might be at home but I know there will be plenty of fla st fans there. Fla st is not a top 5 team, but they do win even when down by double digits in the 4th quarter.

Spedizzo · 11-12-14, 12:51 PM

these threads have been made thousands of times and people never learn

the game can go obviously either way, but if you have Florida State -2.5 that doesn't look good based on reverse line movement trends in past situations like this with big games

good luck

however I will say the original poster of this thread has proven he is an idiot when it comes to lines and movement if he thinks it was the public on Miami that beat this line down

the line moved because a select few who either have inside knowledge or deeper pockets than any of us ever will are at this moment on Miami, so the books made the line even more enticing for every average square to jump all over Florida State

James Marques · 11-12-14, 01:05 PM

Where do you guys get these imaginary numbers? 78% of bets are on FSU? Even if that's true, why would the books reveal that kind of information? Don't believe those silly sites that make up those numbers.

bluetooth3 · 11-12-14, 01:48 PM

Originally posted by James Marques

Where do you guys get these imaginary numbers? 78% of bets are on FSU? Even if that's true, why would the books reveal that kind of information? Don't believe those silly sites that make up those numbers.

Pregame 78%
thespread 82%
sportsinsights 82%
cappersmail 76%
covers 72%
wunderdog 80%

Not saying these are 100% accurate, but an indication on where the $ is going.

Sam Odom · 11-12-14, 01:59 PM

A lot of $$$ will be lost on this game...

TheMoneyShot · 11-12-14, 02:33 PM

Originally posted by trytrytry

Im not so sure that your thought that fla st -2 is a very great play but at PK it becomes some monster unit play of the year. thats is some movement but not that much value added in -2 to pk to warrant some multiple units of increase at all.

Try... my initial thought was Miami due to the small line. But, Florida State hasn't ever let the underdog really cover in any game. They hardly let the underdog cover... call it what you want... but its evident. My main concern is... NO VEGAS OUTLET is offering a ML on the game yet. They are just allowing you to lay juice either way. That's also a sign that Florida State might cover. Vegas needs some juice on Miami +2 and +1.5 just in case. You can't take Miami ML anywhere in Vegas yet. That's kind of odd. The Mirage, MGM, and The Wynn aren't allowing this yet. My point is... if they thought Miami really had a chance they'd allow you to wager FS -125 or -120 ML. But they aren't. There's reasons for this. It's all business in my eyes. Just like Sam Odom just indicated... major wagers on this game.

I'm not saying i'm 100% 90% or 80% right. I'm just saying... one has to look at everything about this game. When you stick a game at PK. Juice comes in on both sides. You would only do this because you feel the favorite will beat the underdog. Business wise that's why Vegas isn't allowing a ML on this game... it concerns them when the line opened up FSU -2.5 or FSU -2. Pay close attention to what Mirage and what The Wynn do. If they never allow a ML on this game... there's a reason why.

Sam Odom · 11-12-14, 02:43 PM

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/players-talk/2994529-ncaafb-loaded-up-weekened.html

Of those ^ BIG TIME games only this Fla St/Miami Fl game ATS looks 'funny' - something is up

Sam Odom · 11-12-14, 02:48 PM

Yahoo Squares...

boomer62 · 11-12-14, 02:56 PM

What are you talking about? And for the record Fla St is 2-7 ATS and has played quite a few close games and had to come from behind. The line should be -1 and if they think FLA ST ranked #2 in the country with lots of supporters was far superior they would have at least put a -3 or -4 on. Not saying they won't win but I think if they did that the sharps would jump on Miami. As for money line sometimes on games at a -1 or pick range they sometimes don't offer till closer to game time. And if you like FLA St. Then lay the points -110 , money lines are stupid less then 3. PLAY OF THE CENTURY?? Are you hanging out with Bear now? Lol

saints1856 · 11-12-14, 02:57 PM

Originally posted by TheMoneyShot

My main concern is... NO VEGAS OUTLET is offering a ML on the game yet. They are just allowing you to lay juice either way. That's also a sign that Florida State might cover. Vegas needs some juice on Miami +2 and +1.5 just in case. You can't take Miami ML anywhere in Vegas yet. That's kind of odd. The Mirage, MGM, and The Wynn aren't allowing this yet. My point is... if they thought Miami really had a chance they'd allow you to wager FS -125 or -120 ML. But they aren't. There's reasons for this. It's all business in my eyes. Just like Sam Odom just indicated... major wagers on this game.

My local has: Florida St -2 -110; ML of -130
Miami +2 -110; ML of +110

I really like Florida St to win outright, I think Jameis Winston always just finds a way to win games

Big Bear · 11-12-14, 04:22 PM

Originally posted by trytrytry

Im not so sure that your thought that fla st -2 is a very great play but at PK it becomes some monster unit play of the year. thats is some movement but not that much value added in -2 to pk to warrant some multiple units of increase at all.

this kid gets it.

sourtwist · 11-12-14, 05:11 PM

Originally posted by Spedizzo

I think Louisville was the right bet last week

there is no justification for how bad they played in the second half. even sharps get screwed

the way they sold out to prevent the run on the last play to leave a wide open receiver to put the dagger in at the very end was absolutely disgusting

the coach should be fired

the only reasoning I can see for the -2 line is for the factors you mentioned

Miami is at home despite an almost neutral home field for this game, but this is pretty much their Super Bowl, in-state rivalry, Duke Johnson going off, Florida State defense questionable this year, and Florida State pretty much having to grind out their last few wins under stressful late-game conditions, etc etc etc

I think Miami +2 (buy to +3 imo) is the play

If you dont think florida state wins, why bother with the two points, let alone three?

sneakerhead · 11-12-14, 05:20 PM

Originally posted by Big Bear

exactly. I aint buying the hype of Miami.

They tried to hype up Miami last year against Florida State too making them a top 10 team in the ranking for that game.

Miami has not won a big game in a long long time. Def a show me type bet.

Make'em prove something. All these media people saying FSU is going to lose only fires up Mr Crab Legs.

You are one clueless wannabe sharp fuk.

Last year FSU were favored by 21.5, there was no hype around Miami. We all knew they were gonna get raped, you probably backed Miami though.

Miami won last year against UF, not sure if thats a big game for you but for UM it sure was a big rivalry win.

broadway6 · 11-12-14, 05:30 PM

Hope fsu wins, but I'm not betting on it.

paw · 11-12-14, 05:39 PM

BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH.................................... .....

FL st Win this game by 14 with their eyes closed. Winston will have a field day with them and than later that night have 6 blond bimbos waiting for him to Toss his Salad.

Miami isn't even a top 20 team let alone a True dog...........................Books will take everyone's Miami money for SURE.

Best play of the season bar none.

Paw