Baller Alert with a thread to document the carnage.
So I have been practicing this a bit the last week or so in the NBA, but will probably apply it more to NCAAB as I tend to follow it more than the pros.
The basic premise is that at half-time, I count up the number of possessions using the formula FGAs + O.Rebs - Turnovers + .436 * FTAs for the NBA and .475 * FTAs for NCAAB.
NCAAB you also add five to that final number to estimate possessions for the 2nd half due to excessive fouling as college hoops.
These are not formulas of my own, but some I have seen shared around the Internet over the years.
From there, I look at the # of points scored in the first half, tempo, FG%, fouling, etc. and match it against the # of possessions. Then, I look at the 2nd half total and look for the best edges. That usually means looking for games where the 2nd half total is set off by quite a bit from what the # of possessions and flow of the 1st half shows.
End of the day, it is still a choice on which games to try and which games to skip. There is no magic number that says YES play this game. So I'm just spitballin' these as I go, no promises of failure or riches. Maybe it'll help along the way again this season for either fading or following purposes. Enjoy the show. These will be on Twitter also for ease of timeliness if you so care to follow as there is no telling which games my be picks on any given day. Same as my SBR handle.
Be the Squirrel trying to get that Nut
So I have been practicing this a bit the last week or so in the NBA, but will probably apply it more to NCAAB as I tend to follow it more than the pros.
The basic premise is that at half-time, I count up the number of possessions using the formula FGAs + O.Rebs - Turnovers + .436 * FTAs for the NBA and .475 * FTAs for NCAAB.
NCAAB you also add five to that final number to estimate possessions for the 2nd half due to excessive fouling as college hoops.
These are not formulas of my own, but some I have seen shared around the Internet over the years.
From there, I look at the # of points scored in the first half, tempo, FG%, fouling, etc. and match it against the # of possessions. Then, I look at the 2nd half total and look for the best edges. That usually means looking for games where the 2nd half total is set off by quite a bit from what the # of possessions and flow of the 1st half shows.
End of the day, it is still a choice on which games to try and which games to skip. There is no magic number that says YES play this game. So I'm just spitballin' these as I go, no promises of failure or riches. Maybe it'll help along the way again this season for either fading or following purposes. Enjoy the show. These will be on Twitter also for ease of timeliness if you so care to follow as there is no telling which games my be picks on any given day. Same as my SBR handle.
Be the Squirrel trying to get that Nut
