Things to know when betting NFL

[LT Profits]

I think taking teams off a bye week is a common degen misconception. Teams after bye weeks are historically close to 50% win rate.

The one trend I like is taking a team after a blowout loss on national TV. Off the top of my head I recall cashing TB @ Pitt (after blowout loss @ ATL on TNF), NE vs CIN (after blowout loss to KC on MNF?). Jacksonville isn't included in this theory, and obviously it's not full-proof.

FAVORITES off a bye are closer to 60%.

[Chi_archie]

FAVORITES off a bye are closer to 60%.

against the spread?

[Chi_archie]

if you like the dog vs the spread, make sure to sprinkle a little bit on the Moneyline as well

[LT Profits]

against the spread?

I get 58.8% since 2000 ATS

150-105-5 ATS

[LT Profits]

Never bet on a team you don't think can win outright, no matter how many points they are getting.

Not true at all, a lot of time ugly big dogs have the best value.

[pimike]

The large under play I gave out fit my things to know about picking winners!

[Riceboi]

Never fade the pats at home at least until Brady retires.
Never fade Peyton during regular season.

[pimike]

Lions to win is a very strong side to follow tomorrow

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[pimike]

#7

If you have a team covering the spread at half time never add more money the second half to think they cover more than the original spread.

#8
Don't bet road favorites. Yes they win but long term you will lose. Example Denver, Falcons, Green Bay.

#9 now for half time plays look for value.
Example: Packers yesterday as a road favorite getting beat bad at half time. Jumping on Packers and or Denver at half had TONS of value.


If you want to make money long term follow these. Will give a few more down the road.

Hope this helps somebody.

[jjgold]

I repeat all you need to know is NFL quarterbacks and coaches

[pimike]

I repeat all you need to know is NFL quarterbacks and coaches

call me pal, we need a meeting.