Rolling with Kansas State +9.5 and possibly outright

[t-wizzle]

I like the Wildcats tonight. They are a tough team at home. When firing on all cylinders, they are one of the most underrated teams in the country. Every now and then they throw in a dud but Snyder will have them prepared tonight.

We know Auburn is an offensive machine. There's going to be times when they move the ball at will. But it's all about getting key stops at the right time.

I'll take K-State with the homefield advantage tonight. Should be a hostile environment. Going to be interesting to see if they're able to force Marshall to beat them with his arm.

*Side note: This looks like a teaser line *


Kansas State +9.5 -107 (3.5x); ML +305 (.5x)

[zola]

They may cover, but they won't win outright.

50% of K State's roster is former or current walk ons.....

[crustyme]

do u honestly think people stay up at nights wondering what an airbetting broketard is fake betting every day?

[Da Manster!]

Twizzle,
Can you please show an actual cash receipt or offshore pending book ticket of your wager and how much money you put on it?!...

[t-wizzle]

Twizzle,
Can you please show an actual cash receipt or offshore pending book ticket of your wager and how much money you put on it?!...

No. I'm posting from my phone.

I've posted multiple screenshots of tickets in the past. I'm not going to do this every time I post a play.

If you honestly think I'm not betting anything then go ahead and think that.

Other than that, post a comment about the game or GTFO.

[crustyme]

Twizzle,
Can you please show an actual cash receipt or offshore pending book ticket of your wager and how much money you put on it?!...

u have better odds of seeing bigfoot riding a unicorn.

[t-wizzle]

Line is down to 7.5 now.

[crustyme]

yeah u mustve moved it with all that air.

[Da Manster!]

u have better odds of seeing bigfoot riding a unicorn.

sad, but true!....

[No coincidences]

Line is down to 7.5 now.

Really no difference between 7.5 and 9.5.

[boomer62]

Really no difference between 7.5 and 9.5.

Yes and the opening line is way off. Auburn should be favored around 2-3 and opened at 71/2 begging for K state action.

[t-wizzle]

Really no difference between 7.5 and 9.5.

Yes there is.

[No coincidences]

Yes and the opening line is way off. Auburn should be favored around 2-3 and opened at 71/2 begging for K state action.

Agree. No reason for K-State to be more than a TD dog here. I was anticipating anywhere from 4.5 to 6.5.

[No coincidences]

Yes there is.

Because a lot of football games are decided by 8 or 9 points?

[biglance68]

So auburn big?

[Darkside Magick]

All these football games decided by 8 and 9 points...lmaoooooo....as coin said 7.5 -9.5 is nothing

[t-wizzle]

Because a lot of football games are decided by 8 or 9 points?

2 points is 2 points. It becomes more important especially in higher scoring games.

[valaub04]

so auburn big?

huge.

[t-wizzle]

Also, the moneyline has dropped 70 cents since early this morning.

If you don't think this line movement has any significance then you're just being hard-headed.

[jtoler]

No chance Kstate wins. If this gets to 6.5 somehow, and it wont, big play on the Plainsmen.

[recon1]

I like the Wildcats tonight. They are a tough team at home. When firing on all cylinders, they are one of the most underrated teams in the country. Every now and then they throw in a dud but Snyder will have them prepared tonight.

We know Auburn is an offensive machine. There's going to be times when they move the ball at will. But it's all about getting key stops at the right time.

I'll take K-State with the homefield advantage tonight. Should be a hostile environment. Going to be interesting to see if they're able to force Marshall to beat them with his arm.

*Side note: This looks like a teaser line *


Kansas State +9.5 -107 (3.5x); ML +305 (.5x)

Sorry, Dude. Wish you the best, but you will have better luck having a heavily favored team in the NFL returning a kickoff without a holding penalty called.

[jtoler]

You might would look hard at taking Kstate if Au had LSU next week, but they dont.

[Bbfromgpt]

This makes me feel better about Auburn winning

[No coincidences]

Also, the moneyline has dropped 70 cents since early this morning.

If you don't think this line movement has any significance then you're just being hard-headed.

I'd say this is just as significant:

09/14 06:32 PM	-10 -110	+10 -110
09/14 06:13 PM	-8½ -110	+8½ -110
09/14 05:12 PM	-7½ -110	+7½ -110
09/14 04:57 PM	-7 -110	+7 -110
09/14 04:52 PM	-6½ -110	+6½ -110

I'm not saying K-State can't cover here at home on a Thursday night with a magical atmosphere in Manhattan. But I've watched both of these teams play and the talent gap is cavernous.

[t-wizzle]

I'd say this is just as significant:

09/14 06:32 PM	-10 -110	+10 -110
09/14 06:13 PM	-8½ -110	+8½ -110
09/14 05:12 PM	-7½ -110	+7½ -110
09/14 04:57 PM	-7 -110	+7 -110
09/14 04:52 PM	-6½ -110	+6½ -110

I'm not saying K-State can't cover here at home on a Thursday night with a magical atmosphere in Manhattan. But I've watched both of these teams play and the talent gap is cavernous.

Come on man. Don't use BOL line moves to try and make a point. You know better then that.

[jjgold]

Taking the point is definitely the right play here

[No coincidences]

Come on man. Don't use BOL line moves to try and make a point. You know better then that.

I've made an absolute killing using early BOL lines vs. Pinnacle openers as part of my analysis for the last two-plus years.

[No coincidences]

FTR, K-State was +11 a few months ago. That was the # to get -- anything at 10 or more.

[Bbfromgpt]

Taking the point is definitely the right play here

I'm going to try and catch a live line. Reason being is home dogs are great to play. Especially on weekday games. However, AU is extremely more talented. Their Oline is going to dominate the smaller Kstate Dline. Not only that, but AU is much deeper and more talented (1/2 or almost 1/2 of KSU players are former walk ons). I just don't see anyway KSU slows this monster running game down late. I could be wrong though, hope to get a good live line

[t-wizzle]

I've made an absolute killing using early BOL lines vs. Pinnacle openers as part of my analysis for the last two-plus years.

In what way? BOL opening lines are always off. That's a fact.

Btw I'm not that invested that I would bet a game months in advance and neither are you.

[t-wizzle]

Sorry, Dude. Wish you the best, but you will have better luck having a heavily favored team in the NFL returning a kickoff without a holding penalty called.

Thanks recon.

[No coincidences]

In what way? BOL opening lines are always off. That's a fact.

Btw I'm not that invested that I would bet a game months in advance and neither are you.

It's an indicator of the true market line from a sharp book like Pinnacle vs. a soft opening line at a recreational book like BOL. They aren't always "off," but when they are, it's a good tool to see what early money thinks about a side or total.

To me, this is the type of game where you need to get a key number -- i.e., K-State at +10 or more, or Auburn at -7 or less. Anything in the 7.5 to 9.5 range is just flipping a coin.

[jtoler]

It being a Thursday isnt an issue here. Once again the SEC will put to shame the Big 12.

[CWD]

It being a Thursday isnt an issue here. Once again the SEC will put to shame the Big 12.

agree and baylor line dropped 3 points last week fri night game we all saw how that turned out for buffalo. not buying the night angle if anything its more incentive for teams to run it up for poll voters.

havent seen anything substantial to sway me away from auburn, theyre # 2 in some power rankings and they just might be a monster vs an average k state team at best. i had respect for the old snyder teams but i dont think his latest stint at k state is going to be the same. he's close to 80 years old now and im just not buying that they can give auburn a game.

[t-wizzle]

It's an indicator of the true market line from a sharp book like Pinnacle vs. a soft opening line at a recreational book like BOL. They aren't always "off," but when they are, it's a good tool to see what early money thinks about a side or total.

To me, this is the type of game where you need to get a key number -- i.e., K-State at +10 or more, or Auburn at -7 or less. Anything in the 7.5 to 9.5 range is just flipping a coin.

If you don't like K State here that's fine, we don't need to agree on that.

I'm just not sure why you bother using BOL "soft opening lines." Pinny makes their lines without regard to what a rec book has. The rec book then readjusts.

If you used this logic in the big UGA-SC game I know you would have gotten burned for example.