I really think everyone is just overreacting

bigboydan · 10-05-06, 01:08 PM

Well your right bud, This new law is not going to stop everything. However, this will surely slow it down to a crawl though. I'm sure books are scrabling right now to research the new law to exploit loopholes, and other types of funding options.

TLD · 10-05-06, 01:10 PM

It isn’t as if the only risk to books (and hence to the players who have money on account with them) is that it’ll be impossible to transfer money back and forth, and/or people will be getting thrown into jail for gambling.

Let’s stipulate that neither of these will happen. Let’s say that money transfers become only marginally more difficult if at all, and that zero people have their doors busted down, etc. Does it follow that there is nothing to worry about?

No, it doesn’t, because perceptions affect behavior, and that behavior will affect the books.

There are millions of people—less than 1% of whom have ever read any of these forums—who are now aware that some sort of anti-Internet gambling law was passed by Congress. A large number of them will cease betting offshore (or simply not start in the first place) and pull out all their money.

They may be wrong to do that. They may be basing it on false beliefs, such as that the cops are going to storm in their house and arrest them if they ever place another bet online. But that’s irrelevant. False beliefs affect behavior just as much as true beliefs do.

This massive loss of customers and potential customers obviously is bad for the books. How much damage it will do, which books it will affect more than others, and which books it will affect enough to have them go under and not return their customers’ money are all things no one can know with certainty, but they are all worthwhile to gather evidence on and discuss so that we can at least make educated guesses and govern our behavior accordingly.

So, no, I’m not concerned that this bill will make it impossible for Americans to wager, and I’m certainly not concerned that as a result of this bill I’ll be arrested and sent to prison. But I am—not for those reasons, but for the reasons stated above—concerned about the safety of my funds at the various books I have balances at due to the passage of this bill.

nosuzieno · 10-05-06, 01:24 PM

Can't really say that inability to play online poker (all three of my rooms excluded U.S. deposits this week) is an overreaction on MY part...why would they exclude 80% of their revenue if they didn't fear some teeth behind the law?

sjelveh · 10-05-06, 02:03 PM

Originally posted by TLD

It isn’t as if the only risk to books (and hence to the players who have money on account with them) is that it’ll be impossible to transfer money back and forth, and/or people will be getting thrown into jail for gambling.

Let’s stipulate that neither of these will happen. Let’s say that money transfers become only marginally more difficult if at all, and that zero people have their doors busted down, etc. Does it follow that there is nothing to worry about?

No, it doesn’t, because perceptions affect behavior, and that behavior will affect the books.

There are millions of people—less than 1% of whom have ever read any of these forums—who are now aware that some sort of anti-Internet gambling law was passed by Congress. A large number of them will cease betting offshore (or simply not start in the first place) and pull out all their money.

They may be wrong to do that. They may be basing it on false beliefs, such as that the cops are going to storm in their house and arrest them if they ever place another bet online. But that’s irrelevant. False beliefs affect behavior just as much as true beliefs do.

This massive loss of customers and potential customers obviously is bad for the books. How much damage it will do, which books it will affect more than others, and which books it will affect enough to have them go under and not return their customers’ money are all things no one can know with certainty, but they are all worthwhile to gather evidence on and discuss so that we can at least make educated guesses and govern our behavior accordingly.

So, no, I’m not concerned that this bill will make it impossible for Americans to wager, and I’m certainly not concerned that as a result of this bill I’ll be arrested and sent to prison. But I am—not for those reasons, but for the reasons stated above—concerned about the safety of my funds at the various books I have balances at due to the passage of this bill.

well put that makes sense but i dont think to many people know about this bill i have asked alot of people and they 1 dont know about it and 2 they said there going to keep doing it. i think this affects high limit players more then anything

isetcap · 10-05-06, 02:20 PM

TLD, that is probably the best post I have seen on this topic since it became news a few days ago. Let me add to what you have said by mentioning trends and history since I've been involved with online gambling since the beginning.

When online gambling first established a real presence on the internet about 10 years ago, it experienced explosive growth even though the legality was certainly in question. After about 5 years with steadily increasing numbers, the industry began to register on the US government's radar. It was at this point in time that the government directed to the financial sector its disapproval in US banks funding these enterprises. Almost immediately all major US banks proactively ceased funding online gambling transactions. This is what allowed the well-positioned Neteller group to grab all the marketshare for online gambling transactions. The industry quickly recovered and has continued to trend upwards since that time.

Now we have another event that is shaking the financial stability of the industry. This event happens to have more public perception (the effects of which you have eloquently documented). Once the adjustments are made and the public sees the stability, another recovery will take place. It is inevitable because the legislation does not have the scope necessary to shut down US playership. This downturn will once again yield a redistribution of wealth. As with Neteller the first time around, those institutions that adapt the quickest and remain strong in the face of the storm will undoubtedly enter this next recovery as the strongest performers. Those that admit defeat or choose to remain on the sideline and observe the changes will have to chase to keep up.

isetcap · 10-05-06, 02:22 PM

Originally posted by nosuzieno

Can't really say that inability to play online poker (all three of my rooms excluded U.S. deposits this week) is an overreaction on MY part...why would they exclude 80% of their revenue if they didn't fear some teeth behind the law?

For every poker room that is not taking US action, I can name 10 that will happily take your money.

TLD · 10-05-06, 05:01 PM

Originally posted by sjelveh

i dont think to many people know about this bill i have asked alot of people and they 1 dont know about it and 2 they said there going to keep doing it.

I hope that's true, sjelveh. Pretty clearly we are in a "run on the bank" type situation at some of these books, but we can hope that most people are like those you've spoken with and so it won't be too severe and actually drive any book under.

SBR_John · 10-05-06, 05:18 PM

Originally posted by sjelveh

C’mon guy’s people can get any illegal drugs they want, people download illegal music and movies all the time, people have broken the wire act because they have used a phone to make wagers. Do you really think that the top notch books won’t find a way to get your money? And do you really think any type of law enforcement agency is going to bust down your door because you made a 3 team parley. I live in Vegas and I will keep using my online accounts and neteller and if I have to use something else to fund my account next football season then I will use that new method as well. This is just a paper law get over it.

Good post and good follow-up by TLD.

I think they know they can't stop it. When the fog clears it will give the US a chance to legalize it with the US casinos. I'd give it 3 years.

jjgold · 10-05-06, 05:23 PM

Originally posted by nosuzieno

Can't really say that inability to play online poker (all three of my rooms excluded U.S. deposits this week) is an overreaction on MY part...why would they exclude 80% of their revenue if they didn't fear some teeth behind the law?

Guy you hit it on the head!!!

The gov't mean business and some banks that allow illegal gambling transactions are really going to be made an excample of. The Senators were smart here, cut off money and they will cripple undustry at least the online non credit side.

moses millsap · 10-05-06, 05:32 PM

Originally posted by sjelveh

C’mon guy’s people can get any illegal drugs they want

Drugs are illegal?

isetcap · 10-05-06, 06:26 PM

Originally posted by OWNED

Drugs are illegal?

Not in CA.

My girlfriend was amazed that someone caught with pot over here on the east coast could actually receive something worse than a ticket.

pags11 · 10-06-06, 04:47 AM

TLD,

excellent stuff...so you suggest only having your money in top rated books at this point as well?...

sjelveh · 10-06-06, 11:17 AM

All right forget what I said I am all for this bill. Maybe if I have to drive to the sports book I will realize how stupid my bets are and I won’t bet them.

pags11 · 10-07-06, 12:18 AM

sjelveh,

hang in there bud...we all go through rough stretches...lighten the size of your units, take some time off...you'll come back...