Future of the Industry

**Casi** · 03-20-09, 02:19 AM

Well i do not doubt that books with a wrong business plan are in trouble..
those who give big bonuses and/or reduced juice, but are slow with moving lines for example. You have to know your own limits, it´s better to be noticed as "worthless" in a sharp players eyes for most books (like for example Legenz).

**GoodOldTed** · 03-20-09, 05:10 AM

nothing new - there have been sharp players for years and with all the legality and payment issues from the US, books don't have unlimited access to the mugs.

Books are more likely to be in danger these days because the owners are running them against mortgages on their homes which have dropped severely in value.

Any book offering ridiculously good odds or extravagant bonus schemes is to be avoided unless they have a long track record. Like Casi said, the soundness of the business model is most important at the moment. There will always be schmucks out there who think running a sportsbook or casino is a licence to print money, purely because they are losing gamblers, so therefore everyone must be.

**Stumpage** · 03-20-09, 09:26 AM

Yeah, to echo some points here there are books whose business approach with regards to high bonuses just makes you scratch your head. However, as to the OP's original point, I think most books with a sound business model will continue to do fine.

There are some very good players out there (And I am definitely not one of them) but there are also the core group of players who basically keep the books afloat. It's not meant as a slight against anybody, but all you have to do is visit the Main Forum and see all sorts of topics about "Going all in!", "I gotta chase!" various "systems" and those who just continue to load up the Russian Roulette 6-chamber and play in the online casinos. Not saying that these are guaranteed to fail, but all things being equal I like the books chances in any of those situations.

**Mudcat** · 03-20-09, 10:12 AM

Originally posted by Stumpage

but all you have to do is visit the Main Forum and see all sorts of topics about "Going all in!", "I gotta chase!" various "systems" and those who just continue to load up the Russian Roulette 6-chamber and play in the online casinos. Not saying that these are guaranteed to fail, but all things being equal I like the books chances in any of those situations.

True - and I heartily encourage those sorts of players to stay their course . I have no interest in correcting them. That is a big change for me over the years. That change comes from my basic agreement with what has been said in this thread about the reduced concentration of mugs. We need mugs and lots of them.

Years ago - pre-UIGEA - I was always trying to help people. Now, I consider it an important principle not to post good betting info on public forums. And not to correct bad ideas. It goes against my instincts and I sometimes fail and will post some knowledge, but I'm getting better at it.

It is very hard to accept, but I should probably consider jjgold, the king of spreading bad betting info, my best friend. I'm not quite there yet though.

Sometimes I have a profitable angle I want input on, and I'll start typing up a thread to discuss it - and I have to stop myself.

I do my serious discussions off the forum with a small group of contacts who are sworn to never make anything public.

I'm not exaggerating. Maybe that all sounds overboard but that is how I feel.

**Dark Horse** · 03-20-09, 10:27 AM

Losing while getting +110 odds? You would have to be asleep at the wheel to mess up that type of edge. And books have ways to limit their exposure.

One driving principle is that there is always a new challenge, so you always have to be willing to learn. Books that complain about circumstances, such as suggested in this thread, don't understand that basic idea. The best books are those that are run by sharp players who switched sides. Because they know all the ins and outs.

In general, it seems to me that there are two types of books. Those who think they can make an easy buck off a willing public, and don't respect anything or anyone but their profit margin. And those who respect, almost to the point of reverence, the very concept of betting and bookmaking, and everything it involves. Actually, there is a third type. The 'nice' book that doesn't know what it gets itself into.

So I'm not worried in the slightest about the sharp books. If, as players, they could beat the books, they will certainly be able to win on the other side. On the other hand, if I get the feeling that a book is underestimating what it takes to win, I won't go near it. (because I want to get paid, rather than take a shot at a book that everyone can take a shot at).

**ByeShea** · 03-20-09, 06:15 PM

Personally, I don't think the offshore sports book as even begun to reach its potential, at least in the US.

Put it this way...is your "average Joe" willing to bet $50 on a football game. The answer is yes.

Next question...has your "average Joe" wagered on an online book in the past 3 years. The answer is no.

I work in affiliate marketing and have success in other fields that don't interest me. (Home remodeling, cars, audio, real estate) - sports gambling interests me and I believe most industry marketing strategies serisouly lag those of other industries. I'm here partly because I'm interested to begin with and partly because I'm fact-finding.

And to think this game is threatened by sharps? 100 years ago when organized gambling routinely reached the players. Imagine being a book out of the loop then.

**moonbeam** · 03-20-09, 06:32 PM

Originally posted by ericmangin

I was just reading an article that the industry might be in trouble because books are becoming flooded with too many "sharp" players.

What are your opinions on this?

What kind of money do you think these top books are making?

In my opinion the whole business will collapse within the next 2 or 3 years.

95% of all books think they can earn millions with the $2 punters.

(bet365 was a good example for this kind of outdated business model)

They cant.

This business is completely sick.

That´s why it will collapse very soon.

**ericmangin** · 03-20-09, 07:55 PM

what prevents books from taking the money and running if they get hit big?

**moonbeam** · 03-20-09, 07:55 PM

That´s why I also think SBR is very old fashioned as long as SBR think they must provide books like bet365 (for example)

**ericmangin** · 03-20-09, 08:00 PM

im not concerned with "most" books. Im only talking about the recommended sportsbooks. Do you guys think those books are in really good shape?

Minimum life expectancy? anyone?