Nationals on the run line tonight

[Dollars2Donuts]

Was on under so glad it hit but 23 combined hits and 2 errors means this game really should have gone over. Should have had 12-13 runs based on those numbers

Come now, a lot of hits doesn't always mean a lot of runs....some contact pitchers that don't walk a lot of hitters will skew that and other pitchers that walk a lot of hitters will have the opposite effect.

[newguy]

Come now, a lot of hits doesn't always mean a lot of runs....some contact pitchers that don't walk a lot of hitters will skew that and other pitchers that walk a lot of hitters will have the opposite effect.

I don't watch it as closely as I used to - I actually rarely bet any bases - was having a rough day at work yesterday - saw this thread and blind tailed one post - but when I was tracking it more closely - I had a model that would calculate the total number of hits I expected and total number of errors I expected during game. I assigned 0.5 runs per hit and 0.75 runs per error. I found those stats hold true over a decent size sample. things may be different now - that was probably 8-9 years ago when I actually had time to do all that. Model took forever because I had to get the stats of starter, estimate how deep he would go into game, estimate which relievers would come in and for how long, etc. But my bankroll wasn't big enough to bet enough to compensate me for all the work it took - but it was hitting pretty well on both sides and totals. So like I said - maybe not as true anymore - but my guess is if you take all the hits and errors in a given week, assign those percentages - you will come half way close to total number of runs incurred that week