Nationals on the run line tonight

[stevenash]

Nats +115 reduced juice 5D

Fister is loving life in DC (I know, the game is in Denver tonight)
Never was a Fister fan, but you have to admire what he's doing in the NL this season.
I don't care how good Rox hit at home, Franklin Morales is a hamburger, he's a crappy lefty facing a team that starts LHP killers.

Take a look at what Rendon, Werth, Ramos, Clown Boy is doing to LHP this season.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/stats/batting/_/name/wsh/cat/atBats/split/31/washington-nationals

Those are big boy numbers.
I don't care if the Rox put up five, Nats should waylay Morales.

I like run lines on the road with the better stater at times, this is a spot I like.

Nats -1.5 3*

[Monitor-Tan]

[Dollars2Donuts]

No thoughts on the over here? I generally only get the under in Colorado (I pick my spots and it always seems to work as the numbers are ao damn high).

[MoneyIsWater]

I'm a stats guy when it comes to baseball.

Nat's ML and RL are very very very good bets today.

ERAs alone make the bet easy.
2.90 vs 5.26

Nat's put up 3 in first two innings then cruise to victory 8-4.

Fister pitches 7 strong innings.

[stevenash]

^
It's 10.5 and 11
I see a 10.5 juiced to the beejeezus at -125

[RollinDo]

Love the Under 11 here.
Also Nats ML...small play

[Cappinpicks]

No thoughts on the over here? I generally only get the under in Colorado (I pick my spots and it always seems to work as the numbers are ao damn high).

mostly all overs unless u hit the few under streaks

[LT Profits]

I like COLORADO quite a bit here. Don't like Fister in his first ever start at Coors, he is a contact pitcher that does not strike out many and his pitches don't figure to sink as much in the altitude. Plus he is overrated to begin with, he only has a 4.12 FIP and 3.90 xFIP. I get that non-strikeout guys may have their FIP skewed a bit, but the bigger takeaway here is the thing he relies on the most (ball movement) may not be there as usual.

[44 Mag]

Love the Under 11 here.
Also Nats ML...small play

Thanks, now I can go over. LOL.

[James Marques]

I'm a stats guy when it comes to baseball.

Nat's ML and RL are very very very good bets today.

ERAs alone make the bet easy.
2.90 vs 5.26

Nat's put up 3 in first two innings then cruise to victory 8-4.

Fister pitches 7 strong innings.

Comparing ERAs of two different pitchers. One plays in a pitcher's park, the other in a freaking batter's paradise. I'd be willing to bet Fister's ERA in Colorado would be closer to 4.20 or so. Plus, ERA is a lousy stat anyway.

Still, Washington probably wins... but not worth the juice IMO. I'll stick with the over.

[44 Mag]

Comparing ERAs of two different pitchers. One plays in a pitcher's park, the other in a freaking batter's paradise. I'd be willing to bet Fister's ERA in Colorado would be closer to 4.20 or so. Plus, ERA is a lousy stat anyway.

Still, Washington probably wins... but not worth the juice IMO. I'll stick with the over.

[RollinDo]

Thanks, now I can go over. LOL.

You may be right, but I gotta go with the Under.
Both teams struggle on Mondays at the plate...Morales either comes through in big spots or gets mashed...hoping it's the former. Rockies not putting up huge totals at home lately....Fister been tough vs Rockies and away.
Just know that I am hitting 62% on Unders since June 1.
Also Milwaukee Under 8.

[jjgold]

good number

might tail

[DrStale]

I'm a stats guy when it comes to baseball.

Nat's ML and RL are very very very good bets today.

ERAs alone make the bet easy.
2.90 vs 5.26

Nat's put up 3 in first two innings then cruise to victory 8-4.

Fister pitches 7 strong innings.

LOL, a stats guy who thinks a bet is easy based entirely on the ERA of the starting pitchers.

[MoneyIsWater]

OK guys.

Then back MORALES.

While I claim my winnings on a team that is playing real ball.

Nat's 8-4.

[RollinDo]

Nat's 8-4.

Stats guy AND English major.

[Big Bear]

LT Profits,

Fister is a sinker baller. When Jordan Lyles had success pitching at Coors early this season it was the sinker ball that was his primary pitch.

Fister will get contact but in the form of ground balls.

97 degrees in Denver tonight. Wear a tank top if you are lucky enough to be in the mile high city and have tickets. Smoke some purple diesel for me.

[Big Bear]

Who is that dude on the Braves that throws a sinker? i believe he is a rookie...

well he pitched a gem at coors with sinkers too

[44 Mag]

OK guys.

Then back MORALES.

While I claim my winnings on a team that is playing real ball.

Nat's 8-4.

I don't care who wins, 8-4 is still over 10.5 or 11. I think Nat's win though. BOL Pete Rose.

[44 Mag]

LT Profits,

Fister is a sinker baller. When Jordan Lyles had success pitching at Coors early this season it was the sinker ball that was his primary pitch.

Fister will get contact but in the form of ground balls.

97 degrees in Denver tonight. Wear a tank top if you are lucky enough to be in the mile high city and have tickets. Smoke some purple diesel for me.

I thought Porcello from the Tigers last year was the sinkerballer ???

[MoneyIsWater]

Autocorrect on cellphone.

I don't give a crap about using proper English on a sports forum with degens.

BTW Rollin, you're a douche.

[DrStale]

OK guys.

Then back MORALES.

While I claim my winnings on a team that is playing real ball.

Nat's 8-4.

Not the point. The point is the line has already factored in the pitcher's ERA, and you're discounting the effect of Colorado's atmosphere so you're actually working against yourself by making a bet based on faulty reasoning. Of course you could still win the bet but youre going to lose long term with this lack of logic.

[Big Bear]

Porcello is too.

They have similar styles both about 6 foot 10 and throw the sinker from a down hill plane.

[MoneyIsWater]

Lol.

That's not my ONLY logic.

Yes, it is not reputable to just say ERA. But Morales is pure trash.

Hitters ball park or not.

Rockies can't hit IN IT.

40-58.

Nats are playing for playoffs and are contenders WITH better hitters.

Nats win 8-4.

[MoneyIsWater]

Guys.

Nat's win 8-4.

Stop over thinking.

Good Lord.

[RollinDo]

Autocorrect on cellphone.

I don't give a crap about using proper English on a sports forum with degens.

BTW Rollin, you're a douche.

Thanks man. I was just messing with ya. Some people are way too serious on here! I figured it might be cell phone's fault and not yours. I have done that a time or 2.
Hey - no need for name calling...well, I can take THAT I guess.

[RollinDo]

Guys.

Nat's win 8-4.

Stop over thinking.

Good Lord.

Ok. You say 8-4 Nats. I will hold you to that exact score....cause mlb is that easy to predict.

[MoneyIsWater]

Nat's win 8-4

At least cover my bets lol.

Ml and RL.

[LT Profits]

Lol.

That's not my ONLY logic.

Yes, it is not reputable to just say ERA. But Morales is pure trash.

Hitters ball park or not.

Rockies can't hit IN IT.

40-58.

Nats are playing for playoffs and are contenders WITH better hitters.

Nats win 8-4.

Rockies have the best home offense in the majors, batting .309 overall and averaging 5.72 runs per game.

[stevenash]

OK, OK, we get it.
One likes the Nats, the other likes the under.
Move on lol

[RollinDo]

So Money - you say you are a stats guy.
What statistically makes you see Morales is pure trash?
A 4.25 ERA at Coors this season and a lifetime 3.60 ERA there in 112 Innings is not all that bad.

[RollinDo]

OK, OK, we get it.
One likes the Nats, the other likes the under.
Move on lol

I failed to mention I like both.
Maybe an 0-2 night for me in this game.

[whtsox13]

Nat's RL was my 1st wager made this morning. Nash should I double it?

[MoneyIsWater]

They don't win.

End of discussion.

I don't care what MORALES has done.

Look what he IS doing.

The better team IS the nats.

The better pitcher IS fisther.

The team that wants it more....the nats.

Better bullpens, the nats.


The team that will win....you got it...
The nats 8-4.

[DrStale]

Lol.

That's not my ONLY logic.

Yes, it is not reputable to just say ERA. But Morales is pure trash.

Hitters ball park or not.

Rockies can't hit IN IT.

40-58.

Nats are playing for playoffs and are contenders WITH better hitters.

Nats win 8-4.

Oh nevermind you looked at ERA AND their record. Youre a genius. Doesn't matter that the Rockies absolutely rake at home which completely undermines what you posted. Yeesh. Alright im done, that is unless youre looking for a bookie, in which case hit me up.