Kershaw opens up - 280 Thursday v. SD

[stevenash]

I remember one of Hershiser's games, during his streak, he was -340.

If you said there's value in -280, I might not even look at you funny. SD barely hits .220 as a team, and they have to face the best pitcher the games seen since Pedro, in the middle of a steak we haven't seen since Orel.

Might have to consider using in a m/l parlay.

Run line is -130
You can get +110 -2.5 runs

Bet you the line goes to -300 or greater.
This is one serious mismatch.

[El Nino]

Agree. Actually surprised it wasn't -300. I believe Darvish opened around there once when he was streaking against the Astros. Kershaw is on another level right now and getting some run support. Scary combo.

[jjgold]

Maybe this is where he loses let's all load up on the dog

I need a massive score

[easyliving]

SD+2.5 at that number is an auto bet, 5dimes doesn't have it up yet though.

[Monitor-Tan]

100% owned tomorrow...

[KRIT]

Anyone know much about the pitcher for SD?

[Mase of Base]

Despaignes been more than solid in his three starts, regression is no doubt on the way but who's to say it's this game. Denorfia might put one in the seats and that's all she wrote, I trust the SD pen ten times as much as the LADs bunch of gas cans if it comes to that.

Kershaws going to get at least double figure Ks though the Padres love having a hack and I think his pitch count will be fine to last really deep (unless the unthinkable happens and he gets hit!).

[ZetaPsi808]

padres +1.5 and +2.5 lock

[Mase of Base]

Anyone know much about the pitcher for SD?

Horrific minor league numbers, walks a few, somehow pitched lights out so far in the bigs. Regression is going to come surely and quickly but when that is I'm not sure.

[No coincidences]

padres +1.5 and +2.5 lock

This. No way in hell should you ever lay that kind of juice in a single MLB game. I don't care how good Kershaw has been -- LA coming back from a road trip, they're a .500 team so far at home, and they have a ton of weak spots in their lineup (Uribe, the young SS, Ethier and Kemp are awful, etc.). The SD kid has been solid so far.

[konck]

I know this sounds weird but usually the first -300 you see loses

[Plaza23]

Dodgers were only 18-17 in games that Kershaw started last year.
Kershaw was 1-3 vs the Padres.

I project the Dodgers to win 44 Home games this year, so I got them going 22-14 at home from here on out.
61.11% Dodger home wins.
77% Kershaw wins overall (10-3 so far this year)
62% Padre road losses (16-26 so far)
83% Kershaw wins after 2 consecutive Dodger losses especially vs worst team in baseball (i pulled this # out of my ass )

I'll project the Dodgers have a 71% chance of winning this game.

At those odds, the line would need to be -240 or better on the Dodgers to play them.

I dont know about other bettors here but I've tried a million different ways to figure out baseball. At this point, i'm just trying to project a % on a given outcome, and then see if the line either has value at the play or it doesnt. If it doesnt, i dont play it. If it does, i play it. So i'm not really even betting teams at this point. I'm betting lines.

[MCherry281]

No laying chalk in baseball. It never makes sense. Kershaw no runs given up in all those inning. Padres are horrible and being no hit by Lincecum. 10-0 Padres win because that's baseball for you. Don't lay chalk in this crap sport.

[agendaman]

in all but one of kershaw's wins he has cashed the RL but dodgers coming of a road trip dunno ok tell you what 3 solid bets for me gio gonzalez-homer bailey and best bet scott kazmir leave kershaw alone guys-just my 2 cents

[stevenash]

@mcherry
I rarely lay chalk myself, you can bite into the house edge and play LAD if one likes Kershaw in a m/l parlay though.

Ask yourself this, if Kershaw pitched a 4 game series, at home, against this same Padre lineup, starter, and bullpen, how many times would the Dodgers win?

My answer would be 3 times out of 4.

A betting line of -275 converts into 73 percent, or 3 out of 4.
The line is fair.

p.s. how is baseball a crap sport?

[farmhouse1]

Because bullpens can come in and completely ruin everything in a flash. That's why baseball is a crap sport. But not as bad as soccer now that sport is by far the worst sport ever created.

@mcherry
I rarely lay chalk myself, you can bite into the house edge and play LAD if one likes Kershaw in a m/l parlay though.

Ask yourself this, if Kershaw pitched a 4 game series, at home, against this same Padre lineup, starter, and bullpen, how many times would the Dodgers win?

My answer would be 3 times out of 4.

A betting line of -275 converts into 73 percent, or 3 out of 4.
The line is fair.

p.s. how is baseball a crap sport?

[Bostongambler]

There were times when Pedro went off at close to -400. It would be tied 1-1 in the 7th and he would be out of the game and that -400 was now riding on Alan Embree.

[newguy]

I remember one of Hershiser's games, during his streak, he was -340.

If you said there's value in -280, I might not even look at you funny. SD barely hits .220 as a team, and they have to face the best pitcher the games seen since Pedro, in the middle of a steak we haven't seen since Orel.

Might have to consider using in a m/l parlay.

Run line is -130
You can get +110 -2.5 runs

Bet you the line goes to -300 or greater.
This is one serious mismatch.

That much disparity between run line and money line is always a red flag for me. You can save 150 cents of juice and just hope they win by 2 instead of 1. Seems too easy just to take rl. These are the kind of games you could parlay padres rl with dodgers ml and win WAY more times than you ever should.

[stevenash]

Because bullpens can come in and completely ruin everything in a flash. That's why baseball is a crap sport. But not as bad as soccer now that sport is by far the worst sport ever created.

Here's the thing, you have to 'cap the teams 'pen, and you also have to know who in the 'pen is not available to go that night. Back in the day 60 different pitchers made 40 starts a season, going seven inning plus each game, no need to cap a bullpen. Today, 20 pitchers make 33 starts, and nobody, except Wainwright, Kershaw, and a couple others go eight innings. Cliff Lee used to, no more, Verlander, no more, hell Stras only goes 6 and a third. If the starter you are backing has a leaky 'pen behind him, and is not a long distance hurler, hit the FF line.

Handicap the bullpens, baseball can be very profitable, but you got to do your homework, 90 minutes a day or else it's just throwing darts.

[CappinTerp]

I remember along time ago when the Mets were very good and when Doc Gooden was pitching there was no ML.! Just a run line of 3-3.5 !! True story guys!!

[killawookie]

How did the over valued Yu Darvish do yesterday... no value here for either side.

[playersonly69]

We have a baseball forum for all of your baseball ideas junior.


USE IT

[R.P. McMurphy]

Don't see either team doing much damage at the plate and Diego might not do ANY. Runs should be at a premium in this one lean under. Highly likely Kersh extends his scoreless inning streak here in a 1-0 snoozer possibly.

[Big Bear]

-280 on kershaw against the Padres is good value.

Here is why. B/C the Dodgers have 95% chance to win.

the Padres starters numbers are misleading. In each of his last 2 outings he has walked more than he struck out.

[jjgold]

If you bet Kershaw i anything but a parlay you need to quit gambling today

[Big Bear]

If you bet Kershaw i anything but a parlay you need to quit gambling today

it will be in a 5 teamer. might even take -2.5

[R.P. McMurphy]

Even in a par I wouldn't even consider more than -1.5 here Bear. Pitcher friendly park and this kid from Diego has been rock solid did you see how bad L.A. was after the first inning in the motor city? I've never gone -2.5 on a rl and rarely play them at all but if I did then it would be a special event when L.A. is hitting well and maybe facing one of the Rocks shitbag pitchers in Colorado with Kersh on my side lol.

[stevenash]

We have a baseball forum for all of your baseball ideas junior.


USE IT

I guess I missed the memo where a baseball topic can't be discussed in Players Talk.
If you brought something to the table, or weren't so fat and ugly, or wasn't such a stiff, or a decent poker player, or had an ounce of credibiity, we all might take you seriously slick.

But this isn't just about baseball junior, it's a about value, odds, possibilities, intangibles.
What I know about things, you'll never learn, now run along and work on your next scam.

[SharpAngles]

Even -1.5 is juiced so staying away from straight bets but did add Dodgers to a parlay

CIN -167
LAD -285
LAA -127
OAK -120

1U to win 6U

[44 Mag]

If you are a true gambler, and you are up for the week, and you can afford it, the only question really is...Who wins the game, not the price of it. If you thing SD wins bet them. If you think LAD win bet them, many people are always scared off by the ML. They do that for a reason, to scare you into taking a foolish bet you really wouldn't take. If there was no line for this game, Who Would You Take ???

[sploofdogg]

Despaignes been more than solid in his three starts, regression is no doubt on the way but who's to say it's this game. Denorfia might put one in the seats and that's all she wrote, I trust the SD pen ten times as much as the LADs bunch of gas cans if it comes to that.

Kershaws going to get at least double figure Ks though the Padres love having a hack and I think his pitch count will be fine to last really deep (unless the unthinkable happens and he gets hit!).

First true insight on this board. Despaignes has definitely been in command. Could be a gem. I always like a large dog when the public is all over the huge favorite. Probably throw $200 on SD for $500 profit. Who knows, definitely gonna be a judgement call around first pitch.

[stevenash]

^
Great post 44mag
However, some would say, if you got the three, why do you need the one?

[stevenash]

First true insight on this board. Despaignes has definitely been in command. Could be a gem. I always like a large dog when the public is all over the huge favorite. Probably throw $200 on SD for $500 profit. Who knows, definitely gonna be a judgement call around first pitch.

Who knows indeed, I remember a 2 and 14 Larry McWilliams taking Fernando to school at +240

[Big Bear]

If you are a true gambler, and you are up for the week, and you can afford it, the only question really is...Who wins the game, not the price of it. If you thing SD wins bet them. If you think LAD win bet them, many people are always scared off by the ML. They do that for a reason, to scare you into taking a foolish bet you really wouldn't take. If there was no line for this game, Who Would You Take ???

exactly. some of us get to caught up in the lines too much looking for value...

i always like to look at the schedule and do my handicappin before i even look at the lines.

sometimes lines have a way of influencing decision making and steering you in a certain direction.

[44 Mag]

^
Great post 44mag
However, some would say, if you got the three, why do you need the one?

OK, Steve, not sure what you are referring to here ???. BOL in your wagers today. One last thought about this game, obviously if someone is unsure of the outcome, pass on the game entirely, there are a lot of other good games to wager on. Never mind I get the "three" you were talking about. TX, & BOL.