Kershaw opens up - 280 Thursday v. SD

[stevenash]

OK, Steve, not sure what you are referring to here ???. BOL in your wagers today. One last thought about this game, obviously if someone is unsure of the outcome, pass on the game entirely, there are a lot of other good games to wager on.

I'm saying your post is rock solid, my other point is, some players who are against playing the chalk at say 1 to 3 or 1 to 5 would say "you have the five, why risk it for another one?

[44 Mag]

Agreed. I might not even play this game. Not because of the line, there other factors to consider, travel, coming off the road, etc. We'll see. However, should I decide later on to wager, it won't be a " Wish List" that SD wins and I can double up, that is just chasing it. BOL.

[SharpAngles]

However, some would say, if you got the three, why do you need the one?

My thoughts exactly. I'm looking to put 100 on three dogs that have a shot to double the money plus some, rather than a chance at a 33% profit laying massive juice on one favorite.

[R.P. McMurphy]

This is one of those Brock specials where he goes huge on the ml. Doyers have a 1-0 lead going into 9th, Kersh gets pulled , leadoff batter gets a free pass bb , next hitter with the walk off blast 2-1 Pads whole world and a million parlays sunk lol.

[44 Mag]

This is one of those Brock specials where he goes huge on the ml. Doyers have a 1-0 lead going into 9th, Kersh gets pulled , leadoff batter gets a free pass bb , next hitter with the walk off blast 2-1 Pads whole world and a million parlays sunk lol.

Is that your prediction for the game ??? Do people forget that the Dodgers are actually allowed to send batters to the plate and can really try to get hits ????

[stevenash]

This is one of those Brock specials where he goes huge on the ml. Doyers have a 1-0 lead going into 9th, Kersh gets pulled , leadoff batter gets a free pass bb , next hitter with the walk off blast 2-1 Pads whole world and a million parlays sunk lol.

This is what SBR is all about !
This is a great discussion.

Me? I am laying off, but know this, and know this well, this game is appointment, must see TV

Gotta go for now.

[R.P. McMurphy]

No 44 mag like I said tho just don't see a lot of runs here and lean under actually. Just know that this is the one play that everyone will have in a par at least and somehow it finds a way to lose. In a low scoring gm like I'm thinking any scenario is possible and 1 swing can change it all. Bol on whatever you take

[stevenash]

Steamed DOWN to 250

<small>San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers</small>
Thu 7/10		959 San Diego Padres O Despaigne - R	<input id="editx" name="S1_20" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> <select id="altS1_20" name="altS1_20" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"><option value="0" selected="">+1½ -110</option><option value="1">+2½ -175</option><option value="2">-1½ +400</option><option value="3">-2½ +885</option><option value="4">+1 +160</option></select>	<input id="editx" name="M1_20" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> +230 Listed	<input id="editx" name="L1_20" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> <select id="altL1_20" name="altL1_20" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"><option value="0" selected="">o6 -110</option><option value="1">o5½ -133</option><option value="2">o6½ +114</option><option value="3">o5 -201</option><option value="4">o7 +163</option></select>
10:10PM		960 Los Angeles Dodgers C Kershaw - L	<input id="editx" name="S2_20" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> <select id="altS2_20" name="altS2_20" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"><option value="0" selected="">-1½ -110</option><option value="1">-2½ +155</option><option value="2">+1½ -500</option><option value="3">+2½ -1350</option><option value="4">-1 -185</option></select>	<input id="editx" name="M2_20" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> -250 Listed	<input id="editx" name="L2_20" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> <select id="altL2_20" name="altL2_20" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"><option value="0" selected="">u6 -110</option><option value="1">u5½ +113</option><option value="2">u6½ -134</option><option value="3">u5 +171</option><option value="4">u7 -188</option></select>

[44 Mag]

No 44 mag like I said tho just don't see a lot of runs here and lean under actually. Just know that this is the one play that everyone will have in a par at least and somehow it finds a way to lose. In a low scoring gm like I'm thinking any scenario is possible and 1 swing can change it all. Bol on whatever you take

Agreed.

[Darkside Magick]

Close game...Dodgers win

[jjgold]

Nashy going to do something stupid

I smell it..Kershy due to get nailed

[Anish]

Ok, just so anyone isn't forgetting Despaigne's numbers before he was called up.. Awful. The guy is a walk machine and due for a gas can explosion.

Lg	Lev	W	L	ERA	G	<nobr>GS</nobr>	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	WHIP	H9	HR9	BB9	SO9	SO/W
2 Lgs	AAA-AA	1	3	6.03	7	7	31.1	40	21	21	3	18	41	1.851	11.5	0.9	5.2	11.8	2.28
TL	AA	0	0	1.17	2	2	7.2	4	1	1	0	5	12	1.174	4.7	0	5.9	14.1	2.4
PCL	AAA	1	3	7.61	5	5	23.2	36	20	20	3	13	29	2.07	13.7	1.1	4.9	11	2.23
		1	3	6.03	7	7	31.1	40	21	21	3	18	41	1.851	11.5	0.9	5.2	11.8	2.28

[Educ8d Degener8]

@mcherry
I rarely lay chalk myself, you can bite into the house edge and play LAD if one likes Kershaw in a m/l parlay though.

Ask yourself this, if Kershaw pitched a 4 game series, at home, against this same Padre lineup, starter, and bullpen, how many times would the Dodgers win?

My answer would be 3 times out of 4.

A betting line of -275 converts into 73 percent, or 3 out of 4.
The line is fair.

p.s. how is baseball a crap sport?

I prefer lines that are not fair.

[konck]

Dodgers were only 18-17 in games that Kershaw started last year.
Kershaw was 1-3 vs the Padres.

I project the Dodgers to win 44 Home games this year, so I got them going 22-14 at home from here on out.
61.11% Dodger home wins.
77% Kershaw wins overall (10-3 so far this year)
62% Padre road losses (16-26 so far)
83% Kershaw wins after 2 consecutive Dodger losses especially vs worst team in baseball (i pulled this # out of my ass )

I'll project the Dodgers have a 71% chance of winning this game.

At those odds, the line would need to be -240 or better on the Dodgers to play them.

I dont know about other bettors here but I've tried a million different ways to figure out baseball. At this point, i'm just trying to project a % on a given outcome, and then see if the line either has value at the play or it doesnt. If it doesnt, i dont play it. If it does, i play it. So i'm not really even betting teams at this point. I'm betting lines.

Players who go solely by numbers in mlb betting usually end up betting heavy favs and the juice gets you. Plus when you go strictly by the numbers your almost always on the public side ( and what do gamblers have in common??? They lose) Think outside of the box look for reasons to bet dogs. The SD pitcher has 3 solid games in a row 2 set backs low k's and last 2 games 4 walks in each. His lone loss is last game he leaves losing 1-0 after 6 cant fault a guy for that I could never bet the Dodgers at the price you have to lay tonight no wayyyyyyyyyy even though Im a huge fan of Kershaw
All I really can say about tonight is GO METS

[TwoWays]

Ok, just so anyone isn't forgetting Despaigne's numbers before he was called up.. Awful. The guy is a walk machine and due for a gas can explosion.

Lg	Lev	W	L	ERA	G	<nobr>GS</nobr>	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	WHIP	H9	HR9	BB9	SO9	SO/W
2 Lgs	AAA-AA	1	3	6.03	7	7	31.1	40	21	21	3	18	41	1.851	11.5	0.9	5.2	11.8	2.28
TL	AA	0	0	1.17	2	2	7.2	4	1	1	0	5	12	1.174	4.7	0	5.9	14.1	2.4
PCL	AAA	1	3	7.61	5	5	23.2	36	20	20	3	13	29	2.07	13.7	1.1	4.9	11	2.23
		1	3	6.03	7	7	31.1	40	21	21	3	18	41	1.851	11.5	0.9	5.2	11.8	2.28

this guy pitched for the south american national team and is unhittable in his only 3 starts in the majors. i think those numbers don't tell the story about the caliber pitcher he is.

[TwoWays]

i remember randy johnson opening at rl -2.5 with juice a few times.

[Darkside Magick]

All these minor leagues numbers, due theory, and regression to the mean is all gambler's fallacy!!!!

[mikmik]

I'm liking the over in this game. Reminds me kinda of the redsox whitesox game. Over was juiced. When everyone knew Boston couldn't hit and sale was taken out.

[pavyracer]

It's not uncommon for a -280 dog to lose in baseball. If the other team parks the bus in front of the hitters they can block all hits.

[James Marques]

Standard deviation in baseball scoring is way, way too high for lines like this. You cannot possibly quantify value in a line of -250 or more. Not saying it won't win, and definitely not saying fade Kershaw... just have to roll with instincts on a pick like that. But as far as value betting, I wouldn't take Kershaw -280 against the Little League All Stars. I'd take the -2.5 RL for a couple of nickels and enjoy the show.

[LeaninBack916]

Definitely a SD ml for a small chunk and a SD +2.5 parlay with Oak ml type of wager.

The relievers most likely to come in for Kershaw will not be their aces today.

[procapx]

I will be on SD tonight ONLY because i can get +250, are you kidding me?

[goduke]

ride his next three starts no matter what. I think hes breaking Orels scoreless streak.

[stevenash]

<small>San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers</small>
Thu 7/10		959 San Diego Padres O Despaigne - R	<input id="editx" name="S1_10" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> <select id="altS1_10" name="altS1_10" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"><option value="0" selected="">+1½ +100</option><option value="1">+2½ -155</option><option value="2">-1½ +425</option><option value="3">-2½ +850</option><option value="4">+1 +175</option></select>	<input id="editx" name="M1_10" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> +250 Listed	<input id="editx" name="L1_10" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> <select id="altL1_10" name="altL1_10" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"><option value="0" selected="">o6 -120</option><option value="1">o6½ +105</option><option value="2">o5½ -145</option><option value="3">o7 +145</option><option value="4">o5 -220</option></select>	<input id="editx" name="E1_10" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> o2½ +140	<input id="editx" name="E3_10" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> u2½ -160
10:10PM		960 Los Angeles Dodgers C Kershaw - L	<input id="editx" name="S2_10" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> <select id="altS2_10" name="altS2_10" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"><option value="0" selected="">-1½ -120</option><option value="1">-2½ +135</option><option value="2">+1½ -550</option><option value="3">+2½ -1300</option><option value="4">-1 -210</option></select>	<input id="editx" name="M2_10" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> -275 Listed	<input id="editx" name="L2_10" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> <select id="altL2_10" name="altL2_10" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"><option value="0" selected="">u6 +100</option><option value="1">u6½ -125</option><option value="2">u5½ +125</option><option value="3">u7 -165</option><option value="4">u5 +180</option></select>	<input id="editx" name="E2_10" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> o3½ -130	<input id="editx" name="E4_10" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> u3½ +110

[stevenash]

LAD +2.5 runs, -1300

[broadway6]

Padres not scoring 3 runs according to the team totals.

[NittanyLionsFan]

Nash are u playing this game at all?

[Delaeasy]

LA Dodgers

So i Shouldn't beat on the dodgers run line?

I really thought Pirates were gonna will yesterday and lost 100$

[OckertCR]

When was the last time you guys saw a team total set at 2.5?? Heritage has pads under 2.5 -150 right now

[pavyracer]

When was the last time you guys saw a team total set at 2.5?? Heritage has pads under 2.5 -150 right now

Aren't all Cubs games under 2.5?

[OptimistPrime]

bought one run, and i am on the under 7 for -160. Kershaw should dominate big today.

[stevenash]

<small>San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers - Propositions - O.Despaigne & C.Kershaw must start for action</small>
Thu 7/10		7301 SDG C.Quentin total bases		<input id="editx" name="M1_142" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> +130
10:05PM		7302 LOS M.Kemp total bases		<input id="editx" name="M2_142" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> -160
Thu 7/10		7303 SDG C.Headley hits+runs+RBI		<input id="editx" name="M1_143" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> +105
10:05PM		7304 LOS A.Ethier hits+runs+RBI		<input id="editx" name="M2_143" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> -135
Thu 7/10		7305 SDG W.Venable hits+runs+RBI		<input id="editx" name="M1_144" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> +100
10:05PM		7306 LOS AJ.Ellis hits+runs+RBI		<input id="editx" name="M2_144" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> -130
Thu 7/10		7307 SDG S.Smith hits+runs+RBI over 1½		<input id="editx" name="M1_145" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> +125
10:05PM		7308 SDG S.Smith hits+runs+RBI under 1½		<input id="editx" name="M2_145" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> -155
Thu 7/10		7309 LOS D.Gordon hits+runs+RBI over 2		<input id="editx" name="M1_146" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> -110
10:05PM		7310 LOS D.Gordon hits+runs+RBI under 2		<input id="editx" name="M2_146" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> -120
Thu 7/10		7311 LOS Y.Puig hits+runs+RBI over 2		<input id="editx" name="M1_147" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> -145
10:05PM		7312 LOS Y.Puig hits+runs+RBI under 2		<input id="editx" name="M2_147" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> +115

[stevenash]

Nash are u playing this game at all?

I'm looking at all the prop bets.
There's money there, but tons of data I have to sort out

[CarpeDime]

all in dodgers -288

took out loan against car

liquidated everything i could for this

all in

dodgers -288

kershaw lock

[Otters27]

1-1. Going to be close to the end.