lol @ Strasberg

[stevenash]

Some people still think he's elite.
Him and his buddy Clown Bro Harper.

Just gave up a moon shot to K Davis, that's five runs now in four innings.
Joke

[Naz18]

er yeah that's really funny.....

Definitely deserved a thread

[goduke]

He's still a very good pitcher. Brewers are a good team who can hit any pitcher in the league.

[stealthyburrito]

worst sp on nats right now.

[stevenash]

er yeah that's really funny.....

Definitely deserved a thread

What are you the thread police?

Here's a novel idea slick, don't like the thread, don't open it, no less post in it.
Thanks for for dropping by though.

BoL tonight.

[stevenash]

worst sp on nats right now.

Seven runs in 4 innings and change and hooked.
Traash lol

[LT Profits]

So he has one bad start and he is no longer an elite pitcher?

The guy is definitely elite, he entered today with 121 strikeouts vs. 20 walks in 100 innings and a 3.24 ERA while pitching in bad luck yielding a .356 BABIP. He is still among the top 15 pitchers in baseball, he came in tied for fifth in the majors in WAR at 2.8.

[No coincidences]

He's a white trash bum.

[No coincidences]

So he has one bad start and he is no longer an elite pitcher?

The guy is definitely elite, he entered today with 121 strikeouts vs. 20 walks in 100 innings and a 3.24 ERA while pitching in bad luck yielding a .356 BABIP. He is still among the top 15 pitchers in baseball, he came in tied for fifth in the majors in WAR at 2.8.

Watch a game sometime, LT.

It'll do you some good.

[LT Profits]

Watch a game sometime, LT.

It'll do you some good.

If something can't be quantified, it has no use gambling wise. How many Major Leaguers with meaningful innings have a 6/1 strikeout-to-walk ratio right now?

[daneblazer]

Don't know if this would have anything to do with it, but he quit tobacco recently. Could be his body feeling like shit.

Certainly looked like his velocity was down today

[No coincidences]

If something can't be quantified, it has no use gambling wise.

Incorrect.

[DrStale]

If something can't be quantified, it has no use gambling wise. How many Major Leaguers with meaningful innings have a 6/1 strikeout-to-walk ratio right now?

Takes some stones for someone who hasn't posted a winning season in quite some time to dictate what does or doesn't have use gambling wise. Just sayin'

[LT Profits]

Takes some stones for someone who hasn't posted a winning season in quite some time to dictate what does or doesn't have use gambling wise. Just sayin'

That just means that I haven't done a good enough job of projecting lines the last few years. The concept itself though is not really arguable, i.e., you have to bet with value just to have a chance to win in the long run. And in order to bet with value, you have to be able to project lines and compare those to the actual lines.

[LT Profits]

That just means that I haven't done a good enough job of projecting lines the last few years. The concept itself though is not really arguable, i.e., you have to bet with value just to have a chance to win in the long run. And in order to bet with value, you have to be able to project lines and compare those to the actual lines.

And let me add that has been my approach for most of my life and all through the umpteen winning seasons I had at SBR before my slump started.

[stevenash]

So he has one bad start and he is no longer an elite pitcher?

The guy is definitely elite, he entered today with 121 strikeouts vs. 20 walks in 100 innings and a 3.24 ERA while pitching in bad luck yielding a .356 BABIP. He is still among the top 15 pitchers in baseball, he came in tied for fifth in the majors in WAR at 2.8.

He's not elite.
He's very hittable.
I'll concede outstanding K pitcher.

He was 8-9 in 30 starts last season with a three ERA, sound numbers, yes, elite numbers no.
He's about to go 6 and 6, his ERA just went to 3.70, his WH/IP just went to 1.3, these are not elite numbers.
I'll be kind, watching him today he was barely servicable, I don't know when the last time I saw him dominate, he did not intimidate today at all, Milwaukee hitters dug in, like it was batting practice.
Davis creamed one out, Gomez hit a laser liner off the wall.
No softies, he was shelled.

Start before that, he was creamed by Braves
Start before that he lost 4-1 to Cards

He has pitched into the 8th inning only once, barely.
He averages only 6 innings a start.

Elite pitchers are innings eaters, that's what aces do, they eat innings
Stras does not.
Aces / Elites finish what they start, or go deep into the game, he does not.

This is what Stras is. He's a 13-9 starter with a 3 ERA
Pretty much a six inning, K an inning starter, that will make two or three mistakes a game, he's given up 10 homers this year, need to double check, at least nine.

He's not elite.

[tatddy]

He's a slightly better version of Homer Bailey.

[DrStale]

That just means that I haven't done a good enough job of projecting lines the last few years. The concept itself though is not really arguable, i.e., you have to bet with value just to have a chance to win in the long run. And in order to bet with value, you have to be able to project lines and compare those to the actual lines.

Fair enough but that's not really what you argued initially. Yes if you get a line at -110 and it's actual value is -120 you'll win money long term, but you stated that anything that is not quantifiable has no use in gambling. Yet a pitcher's motivation or internal issues are examples of issues that are not quantifiable. And yes there are eight million statistics out there that have made betting more quantifiable than in years past but watching a player play the game had no importance scouts wouldn't exist. There are still things a knowledgeable observer can gain from watching a game that the stats won't tell you.

[stevenash]

Fair enough but that's not really what you argued initially. Yes if you get a line at -110 and it's actual value is -120 you'll win money long term, but you stated that anything that is not quantifiable has no use in gambling.

This was value, this was the gift of the year.
I refused to be mind phucked by this line.

Showing Wagers 1 - 2 of 2
249845700-1	6/25/14 2:01pm	$200.00	$232.00	Pending	6/25/14 2:10pm Reduced Baseball 901 Washington Nationals/Milwaukee Brewers Over 7½ +116* (S Strasburg - R must Start M Estrada - R must Start)
235322257-1	3/25/14 1:50am	$50.00	$215.00	Pending	3/31/14 1:00pm Props Baseball 25343 Kansas City Royals win AL Central +430* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Field wins American League Central (Fixed Price)

[No coincidences]

And let me add that has been my approach for most of my life and all through the umpteen winning seasons I had at SBR before my slump started.

Doesn't mean that there isn't room for adjustment or a different approach. You know that.

[No coincidences]

He's a slightly better version of Homer Bailey.

This. I don't care what sexy numbers you throw at the argument.

[jjgold]

Stras is done also

dead arm

[No coincidences]

And let me add that has been my approach for most of my life and all through the umpteen winning seasons I had at SBR before my slump started.

You also need to realize this is a completely new era of gambling, with previously-deemed "inside" information and in-depth statistics at everyone's fingertips. That has rendered beating the closing number and line movement a lot less significant than it used to be.

[stevenash]

Beating the closing number is senseless.
Makes no sense

[Jayvegas420]

Nasy, I love ya bud but, if you want to take the closer and give me the inefficient line over 10000 bets.....I'd gladly take that action.

[stevenash]

Suppose I like the Orioles at +145, I see a +150 at a book and lock it in at 4:30 pm at +150
First pitch is 7:05, game settles at 125/135
I beat the closer at 4:30 pm.
That's what I mean

[You mad bro]

Suppose I like the Orioles at +145, I see a +150 at a book and lock it in at 4:30 pm at +150
First pitch is 7:05, game settles at 125/135
I beat the closer at 4:30 pm.
That's what I mean

Some people will never learn

That's why they're on this forum looking for gambling advice

[BennyBigNuts]

This was value, this was the gift of the year.
I refused to be mind phucked by this line.

Showing Wagers 1 - 2 of 2
249845700-1	6/25/14 2:01pm	$200.00	$232.00	Pending	6/25/14 2:10pm Reduced Baseball 901 Washington Nationals/Milwaukee Brewers Over 7½ +116* (S Strasburg - R must Start M Estrada - R must Start)
235322257-1	3/25/14 1:50am	$50.00	$215.00	Pending	3/31/14 1:00pm Props Baseball 25343 Kansas City Royals win AL Central +430* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Field wins American League Central (Fixed Price)

Nice VALUE on that Royals bet. I'm sitting on +700.
It's way more profitable to be a leader not a follower.

[stevenash]

Nice VALUE on that Royals bet. I'm sitting on +700.
It's way more profitable to be a leader not a follower.

You got +700 to win the division?
Where?
They were to the best of my knowledge never close to +700 to win division

[BennyBigNuts]

You got +700 to win the division?
Where?
They were to the best of my knowledge never close to +700 to win division

http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-talk/2848046-royals-futures-bets.html

[stevenash]

^
Nice wager.
Royals have two more streaks in them I think

[You mad bro]

^
Nice wager.
Royals have two more streaks in them I think

They'll win like 45 out of their next 60 games. Don't worry

[You mad bro]

They'll win like 45 out of their next 60 games. Don't worry

Starting their next game. They suck tonight

[Jayvegas420]

Suppose I like the Orioles at +145, I see a +150 at a book and lock it in at 4:30 pm at +150
First pitch is 7:05, game settles at 125/135
I beat the closer at 4:30 pm.
That's what I mean

Gottchya.

[daneblazer]

Stephen Strasblanton