Thinking Intuitively: How to Identify the dreaded "trap" line

[gottimhimmel]

I have noticed a trend when I'm reading certain threads that certain lines are identified as traps, a line that just doesn't add up. (don't worry, there's a question in here)

What I've also noticed is that as I continue to become a more experienced sportsbettor, lines start to have a certain "feel" to me, and no matter what the stats or research I do on a certain line, my gut tells me to go the other way, to bet the underdog.

I want to give a few examples before I ask my question:

Roger Federer, one of the best tennis players of all time, is given a 1.36 favorite over Ernests Gulbis- it would seem to be a standard match. However, not only did my gut tell me it was a trap, but lo and behold, SBR forum posters felt the same way: http://forum.sbrforum.com/tennis-bet...nvestment.html

Different sport (MLB) : http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-b...s-dodgers.html

Question: What does one look for when trying to identify a 'trap' line, so he/she can either: fade the game, or bet on the other side. How do you sometimes ignore what stats, trends, and research tell you, simply because the line is "trappy? To sometimes bet on heavy underdogs at high + odds? Finally, I want to know: What's the down-to-earth, no BS definition of a "trap" line?

[chunk]

I swear.....I really am beginning to think that some of these posts come from agents of the books... or do I know that for a fact.

[jjgold]

trap line just a generic phrase everyone uses, there is zero bases or theory to it.

[Darkside Magick]

No such thing as a trap line....all lines are psychological

[newguy]

Disagree with most posters in here. I believe there are absolutely lines that are set to encourage action on one side. If Bama is playing Vanderbilt in football, and Bama is only laying 4, that tells me the books are encouraging people to bet Bama. Maybe Bama covers, but vandy covers that line 6 out of 10. I don't think there are any firm rules though. I think it does only come with experience. Someone posted a soccer game the other day where one team was top 10 in world and other not in top 50 and line was low. That's a trap to me. Or you can call it whatever you want but if you can spot those consistently you will be up money.

[raydog]

Disagree with most posters in here. I believe there are absolutely lines that are set to encourage action on one side. If Bama is playing Vanderbilt in football, and Bama is only laying 4, that tells me the books are encouraging people to bet Bama. Maybe Bama covers, but vandy covers that line 6 out of 10. I don't think there are any firm rules though. I think it does only come with experience. Someone posted a soccer game the other day where one team was top 10 in world and other not in top 50 and line was low. That's a trap to me. Or you can call it whatever you want but if you can spot those consistently you will be up money.

you understand that the vast majority of the worlds biggest and best gamblers, are originators... the idea of Trap lines is brutally ridiculous... If a book/s put out bad #s / $s, the sharps will absolutely crush the fukk out of them ... you still see some books imposing line adjustments, well after the market has banged lines into place, to seek some info. from sharps and then they are moved back, but they dont dare set openers that are off unless they want to to go broke ... i hope young guys learn something from this post

[Big Bear]

A Trap line?

maybe in football or basketball...

never in baseball.

For example Saturday night many posters here were encouraging a play on 1-6 McCarthy and the D-Backs over the hottest pitcher in baseball Johnny Cueto.

Yet not one poster who was endorsing the D-Backs could tell you why they liked the D-Backs.... They just thought they were "sharp" b/c why on earth would Cy Young candidate Cueto be + money against the worst team in baseball and facing a pitcher with one of the worst records in baseball now
1-7.

[gottimhimmel]

I am just a guy trying to figure out this term "trappy" that I've seen a lot on the forum. You guys cannot deny that you've seen it at least once before

[Big Bear]

I am just a guy trying to figure out this term "trappy" that I've seen a lot on the forum. You guys cannot deny that you've seen it at least once before

the term means that a player looks at a line and feels that the books are trying to encourage action on a certain side.

[jjgold]

It means a game looks to easy

They win like 50%

[str]

There are no traps.

Just players that are not professionals and perceive lines to be skewed when in reality they are not.

The people setting lines have full knowledge.

The majority of gamblers do not.

So those players call them traps to deflect the fact that they only know what they know, which is not as much as those that set the lines.

[newguy]

you understand that the vast majority of the worlds biggest and best gamblers, are originators... the idea of Trap lines is brutally ridiculous... If a book/s put out bad #s / $s, the sharps will absolutely crush the fukk out of them ... you still see some books imposing line adjustments, well after the market has banged lines into place, to seek some info. from sharps and then they are moved back, but they dont dare set openers that are off unless they want to to go broke ... i hope young guys learn something from this post

I don't disagree with the originator / line setting. What I don't do is buy into the fact that the closing number is "sharp" - there are many times the sharps are on one side of the game and public on the other. That doesn't mean the line is sharp - that just means you need to know which side to be on and I think if you have enough experience you can spot them. The last two years in football I literally LITERALLY spend 15 minutes picking my games. I generally pick them Friday night or Sat morning - well after the sharps have set the line. The last two years I have hit 58% and 63% in football, documented, picking almost exclusively lines that I think are traps. So maybe that isn't a big enough sample size but I didn't document anything before then. I have been gambling for 17 years now and this is the best strategy I have ever seen to make me money. So call the lines whatever you want - but you won't be able to convince me that there aren't traps out there.

[raydog]

sure, there are plenty of games where sharps and squares are on the same side... and the line/money reflects it... you wont see money moving away from them(rlm)...

also, the closing lines dont have to be extremely sharp when you have squares that perceive their gut guess as the right play

2 winning years, no, not near enough sample size...everyones gut guesses get lucky from time to time... glad you have been winning...

like i said, after the market has spoken, some books may make moves to see what kind of action it will draw...those books have extremely good linesmen and know exactly what they are doing... and again, they arent opening any off lines unless they want to go broke... its funny to watch books run around like rabid dogs to match pinny or bm when they set openers

[gottimhimmel]

I was just wondering if anyone else here after years of gambling has started to hone in a "feel" of lines, which makes you better at spotting winning underdog bets.

[Big Bear]

There are no traps.

Just players that are not professionals and perceive lines to be skewed when in reality they are not.

The people setting lines have full knowledge.

The majority of gamblers do not.

So those players call them traps to deflect the fact that they only know what they know, which is not as much as those that set the lines.

Full knowledge?

Some games are coin flips. Take Mondays Jays vs Twins game. Craziest game i've seen in a long time.

[Bostongambler]

trap line just a generic phrase everyone uses, there is zero bases or theory to it.

Over 165K posts and I finally agree with you on something you wrote. Good job Mr Kane.