Red Sox Spring Training game..line way off???

ryanXL977 · 03-16-09, 12:37 AM

i dont think its possible for a spring training line to be off

pico · 03-16-09, 12:42 AM

Originally posted by ryanXL977

i dont think its possible for a spring training line to be off

well said.

poker_dummy101 · 03-16-09, 12:44 AM

I disagree with that statement.

What reason do you have to think this?

ryanXL977 · 03-16-09, 12:44 AM

it does not matter who pitches or who hits
the teams dont care if they win or lose

tacomax · 03-16-09, 12:52 AM

Originally posted by ryanXL977

it does not matter who pitches or who hits
the teams dont care if they win or lose

That explains why essentially a lot of spring training games have coin-flip lines, but that fails to explain why a line for a spring training game can never be off.

ryanXL977 · 03-16-09, 12:54 AM

in my mind, it explains it. how would you explain it? or do you disagree?

poker_dummy101 · 03-16-09, 12:55 AM

Originally posted by ryanXL977

it does not matter who pitches or who hits
the teams dont care if they win or lose

I dont agree with this either

ryanXL977 · 03-16-09, 12:55 AM

allright
make your point then,. why is the line off. maybe im wrong. convince me...

poker_dummy101 · 03-16-09, 01:03 AM

I would actually like to hear if other people think a spring training game could be off.. (besides "off" being that the pitchers got drunk and have a hangover). I doubt I would get serious replies in the think tank either but maybe I shouldve posted it there to see if anyone had anything.

This is my first year looking in depth at spring training thats why i stated the subject as more of a question. I do think a line can be off and that some players want to win.

tacomax · 03-16-09, 01:06 AM

1) It does matter who pitches or hits. In any game, I'd favour Johan Santana over Jimmy Gobble.

2) The teams may not really care if they win, but the players do and some players do more than others. Spring training is a showcase for the regular season - witness the Lowrie/Lugo battle for the shortstop position at the Red Sox. I'm sure that both players care about their performance than someone with a guaranteed roster spot.

3) Lines are generally most efficient when any "unknowns" are known and where there is a lot of money at stake, the books need to make a relatively efficient line. For instance, you're generally going to have a more efficient line with any random game in the NFL against a French Women's 3rd Division soccer match. Henceforth, since there are so many unknowns in Spring training and relatively little money wagered, the lines are certainly not at the peak of efficiency.

Shortstop · 03-16-09, 01:06 AM

poker, what do you think the line should be?

poker_dummy101 · 03-16-09, 01:08 AM

Originally posted by tacomax

1) It does matter who pitches or hits. In any game, I'd favour Johan Santana over Jimmy Gobble.

2) The teams may not really care if they win, but the players do and some players do more than others. Spring training is a showcase for the regular season - witness the Lowrie/Lugo battle for the shortstop position at the Red Sox. I'm sure that both players care about their performance than someone with a guaranteed roster spot.

3) Lines are generally most efficient when any "unknowns" are known - where there is a lot of money at stake, the books need to make a relatively efficient line. For instance, you're generally going to have a more efficient line with any random game in the NFL against a French Women's 3rd Division soccer match. Henceforth, since there are so many unknowns in Spring training and relatively little money wagered, the lines are certainly not at the peak of efficiency.

Thanks, thats pretty much was I was looking for.

ryanXL977 · 03-16-09, 01:10 AM

taco
Just bc lowrie wants the starting job, doesnt mean we know how many ab's he will get, or how he will do in those ab's.
Of course every player wants to succeed, but the way francona uses his pen in a real game vs how he uses it in a spring training game are not going to be the same.
So how do you determine who cares, who doesnt, and how do you cap this "desire factor."
How do you know how many pitches Beckett will throw, if he will throw only fastballs, if he is working on location, velocity, warming his arm, etc. Does it matter more in march 1st games than in march 21st games?

poker_dummy101 · 03-16-09, 01:11 AM

Originally posted by Shortstop

poker, what do you think the line should be?

Blue Jays -125 to -130 at -110 books is my personal opinion (which is really worth nothing btw)

ryanXL977 · 03-16-09, 01:12 AM

why do you think that

tacomax · 03-16-09, 01:22 AM

Originally posted by ryanXL977

Just bc lowrie wants the starting job, doesnt mean we know how many ab's he will get, or how he will do in those ab's.

If I was the manager of the Red Sox I'd make sure that both potential shortstops got a relatively high number of at bats in Spring Training so I could make a decision for the regular season. And of course no one knows what they will do but they have a higher desire to perform well as opposed to Lester or Beckett who are guaranteed a spot regardless.

Originally posted by ryanXL977

Of course every player wants to succeed, but the way francona uses his pen in a real game vs how he uses it in a spring training game are not going to be the same.
So how do you determine who cares, who doesnt, and how do you cap this "desire factor."

Now, you're arguing against your point. You don't know who will be playing, you don't know how they will be asked to play - how can you cap it? And if you can't, then how can the books set efficient lines?

There are so many unknowns that the books don't have efficient lines. On the flip side there are so many unknowns that you're ultimately unable to formulate your own efficient lines either.

ryanspeer2001 · 03-16-09, 01:23 AM

Originally posted by ryanXL977

i dont think its possible for a spring training line to be off

Its hard not to agree with this. To even think a line may be off by a wide margin would require some solid reliable numbers that would give one team a monster edge at........ well nothing except for finding out who their 3rd back-up catcher is.

tacomax · 03-16-09, 01:24 AM

Originally posted by poker_dummy101

Blue Jays -125 to -130 at -110 books is my personal opinion (which is really worth nothing btw)

Halladay may be starting. But he may be only scheduled for one inning followed by a bunch of minor league pitchers. Who knows? Not you, not the book but the manager of the team.

ryanXL977 · 03-16-09, 01:26 AM

i suppose my thesis is : do not bet on spring training, (but he never asked that).

i still dont think lines can be off, not much anyhow.

rjt721 · 03-16-09, 01:27 AM

I'll bet Lugo doesn't get another AB the remainder of spring training.

ryanXL's dumb.

Shortstop · 03-16-09, 01:37 AM

Originally posted by poker_dummy101

Blue Jays -125 to -130 at -110 books is my personal opinion (which is really worth nothing btw)

Take Toronto then.

You obviously feel that you are getting a strong number at -110, pound it.

tacomax · 03-16-09, 01:40 AM

Originally posted by ryanXL977

i still dont think lines can be off

That's probably why you lose money.

donjuan · 03-16-09, 01:41 AM

it does not matter who pitches or who hits
the teams dont care if they win or lose

Based on this, it would seem your belief is that all spring training games are coinflips. If so, then any line where a team is getting better than +100 is off and anything where a team is getting +120 or better would be significantly off. There have been plenty of such lines out there for years now.

ryanXL977 · 03-16-09, 01:41 AM

i dont bet spring training, so im ok either way on this
i was just conversing about it
not tellign him what to do, i am curious as to how the lines could be off and would like someone to show how it could be

so far two people have agreed with me and one has disagreed

donjuan · 03-16-09, 01:44 AM

i dont bet spring training, so im ok either way on this
i was just conversing about it
not tellign him what to do, i am curious as to how the lines could be off and would like someone to show how it could be

so far two people have agreed with me and one has disagreed

Correctness is not a democracy.

ryanXL977 · 03-16-09, 01:48 AM

im aware of what your intent is with that statement, though i question the correctness of the grammar

regardless, i guess i do feel that if a spring training line is +110 or so, it is a solid bet. any numbers on this to prove or disprove?

poker_dummy101 · 03-16-09, 01:49 AM

Well first, Francona doesnt care at all if he wins or loses in preseason. THis was made obviously by how he manages pitchers throughout the game, and by how many leads they have blown just to get pitchers action. Also, some of the team is at the WBC which leads to a 6-10 preseason record so far.

Halladay pitched 4 innings last time out and gave up 0 runs, 9 straight innings of no runs. After the game he said "I was throwing the kitchen sink at them. I don't feel like I have a specific thing to work on." He also said he needed another 8 to 10 in the bullpen after. Would this not lead you to believe he is atleast pitching 4+ tomorrow??

Masterson, the scheduled Red Sox starter is also flawless in preseason and competing for a slim shot at starting rotation. However only one pitcher in the last week + for Francona has pitched more than 3 innings to start the game. Beckett had 4. The third scheduled pitcher for the Red Sox is Bowden who has been a big letdown so far this spring training, 13.50 ERA I believe. Papelbon and Okijima have been working on a one day on and one day off system. Both were scheduled and played in the game today (not scheduled for tomorrow meaning Monday). Add to that, the Red Sox bullpen is absolutely atracious with LIttleton and Ramirez (as Vince Carter pointed out in another MLB thread). Here are some examples:
4 runs in 8th and 9th inning to lose to Orioles today
2 runs in 8th and 9th inning to lose Saturday
2 runs in 9th to lose Thursday
etc. etc...

The only way I don't think there is value in the BlueJays is if Masterson goes 4, Bard goes 2, and Bowden et al. somehow manage to hold onto it.

Ofcourse this doesn't mean I am guaranteeing a spring training game, I just thought the line might be off

ryanXL977 · 03-16-09, 01:51 AM

now that is information i could have used earlier, thats good shit and its all relevant
thats all i was asking for. thanks! good luck with your bet.

donjuan · 03-16-09, 01:51 AM

regardless, i guess i do feel that if a spring training line is +110 or so, it is a solid bet. any numbers on this to prove or disprove?

So that line would clearly be "off" in your opinion, as would Phillies +125 tomorrow. Whether or not you are correct in your assertion (you are not) about all spring training games being coin flips, it clearly is possible for these lines to be "off".

poker_dummy101 · 03-16-09, 01:53 AM

Also want to add to the one part.. the 3rd pitcher listed for the Red Sox is usually in the game by the 5th inning, hardly EVER did they have it go to the 6th, let alone 7th inning. With Bard competing, even if Bowden doesnt get in til the 7th, I still dont see how there isnt some value in a spring training game. (yea crazy but whatever)

ryanXL977 · 03-16-09, 01:58 AM

maybe you are right pokerD, thats a shitload of thought for a spring training game though, seems like nba is much easier to cap, with home road splits and all.

poker_dummy101 · 03-16-09, 02:06 AM

Originally posted by ryanXL977

maybe you are right pokerD, thats a shitload of thought for a spring training game though, seems like nba is much easier to cap, with home road splits and all.

I didn't like any numbers for NBA tomorrow so I decided to waste some time on MLB spring training tomorrow (my other games were guesses for action during the day).

I formed the subject as a question, mainly to see if a spring training game could be off. It looks like infact it can be, which gets me in the right direction because I sure as hell didn't know, I just thought so. (Regardless of whether or not in my specific game the line is off.. which it probably isnt and am just making things up to make sense and find value where there isnt).

fearless · 03-16-09, 05:04 AM

The Astros, who are on a 14 game losing streak were -130 favorites the other day. They lost badly. That line was way off but I laid off of it because I figured the LVSC knows what they're doing and they most know the Astros have a good shot to win. The Astros got blown out in that game. No surprise to anyone, imho. That line was way off.

LT Profits · 03-16-09, 08:50 AM

Originally posted by donjuan

Based on this, it would seem your belief is that all spring training games are coinflips. If so, then any line where a team is getting better than +100 is off and anything where a team is getting +120 or better would be significantly off. There have been plenty of such lines out there for years now.

This is actually correct. If you bet exhibition baseball (which I don't), you can do much worse than blindly betting all dogs that are +110 or more.