Need advice on this pick for tomorrow

[James Marques]

Whats the best money management.
Same units on all the bets or different units based on the confidence of the game.

Same unit size for all bets. Maybe a small spread. Something like 2-5% of your bankroll. It's a grinder's game bud.

The problem with the "confidence of the game" unit sizing is simple: how do you quantify that confidence? If you can't, you're really just making a bet on your confidence. If I'm making one bet, I'd like to operate on as few assumptions as possible -- in the interest of reducing error. However, if you can quantify your confidence fairly accurately, I see no problem in careful unit raises. For instance, you see the Heat line -7, you think they win by 10, calculate the value of those extra three points against the vig and bump your bet some. But never more than 5% of your BR. I can't stress this enough. Variance in all sports is super, super high. Call it what you want to call it (bankroll management, risk of ruin, etc), but they all point to variance: the real killer of 99% of sports bettors.

[jjgold]

Charmer seems pretty intelligent
$500 a game too much for 5k bankroll

[Big Bear]

Guys need some advice...

My accounts down $770 which is about 15% of my account.

I have a $5,000 Bankroll and down 770 so $4,230 current balance.

Im thinking of putting $500 (10% of my original Bankroll) on the OKC thunder money line +170 to win 1350.

Whats your input and advice on making this move?

why only $500?

if you got over 4K i would bet atleast 2K and i would take the points. ML is being greedy and you
will kick your own ass if OKC cover but lose by 2 points.

Remember NBA is sometimes fixed and point shaving happens all the time. This game will probably end within 1 or 2 points of the spread and probably be decided by the last possesion and if OKC decides to foul or let the clock run out.

[iceman02]

What do you guys think about this play

5/29/14 4:27pm $500.00 $880.00 Pending 5/29/14 9:00pm Basketball NBA NBA Finals matchup - Miami Heat vs Oklahoma City Thunder +176

I can hedge this bet by placing bets on spurs on game 7 if needed. Is this a smart move? If anything if spurs lose tonight their futures line will go up I can bet on that or just wait til 7 game to place a bet on them.

[KRIT]

What do you guys think about this play

5/29/14 4:27pm $500.00 $880.00 Pending 5/29/14 9:00pm Basketball NBA NBA Finals matchup - Miami Heat vs Oklahoma City Thunder +176

I can hedge this bet by placing bets on spurs on game 7 if needed. Is this a smart move? If anything if spurs lose tonight their futures line will go up I can bet on that or just wait til 7 game to place a bet on them.

Miami is making it to the finals. If you think OKC wins the series, then take it. I'd guess +176 is a little better price than OKC series right now? If you like OKC to take the series, then go for it. I still think Spurs take it in 7. Gl.

[iceman02]

Miami is
making it to the finals. If you think OKC wins the series, then take it. I'd guess +176 is a little better price than OKC series right now? If you like OKC to take the series, then go for it. I still think Spurs take it in 7. Gl.

I took this futures based on its value.

If okc wins tonight that +176 in gonna drop to like -110 to -150

Spurs vs miami futures is at -134 if spurs lose tonight they gonna inrease their futures to +170 to +200 as they would be down 3-2. Then I can buy that future to hedge and profit this futuree I just purchased. Or I can patiently wait for it to go to game 7 and load up on spurs to protect my 500 investment on thunder vs miami future.

[bullheaddad]

Dont chase your losses, you'll be sorry in the long run. Stay away from miami ML. Thats just too much juice to pay. Im taking okc tonight and thats what a recomend at a +5. Think the run they are on will spill over and win the next two. Also, stay away from the over. If it ends up being a blow out by one of the teams you wont hit it. Spurs will quit and okc will rest starters for game 6.. Plus if you wanna be aggressive only go 5% of your bankroll. Ide go starting roll and not your current one. You gotta learn how to accept losses in this game. It just comes with the territory.250.00 will get u back bout 225.00 depending on your line. Not a ton but a good win.. Just my 2¢ worth. Good luck either way u go..

[SSSuperSergSSS]

Please don't drop 40% of your BRoll on one game, you will probably get lucky and win now but then will come a time when you lose but that loss will cause you to press harder and that will be your downfall. 1-4% of bankroll in one unit is a waste of time lads in the long run you won't make good money (or at least anything worth all the effort and stress you put into this game we call punting). 5% should be a small play or half unit and 10% normal unit. I say this because if your are betting something of value to your bankroll ie 10% you will stay more focused and not just bet for the sake... It keeps you awake and disciplined in a way. And it allows you to see growth when you win. So obviously if you have 5k and play 500 to win 400 and you win your balance is 5400 so this the unit should increase.... Same if you lose the 500 your blance then is 4500 your unit drops to 450 @ 10% a unit ;-) anyways this is my formula for bank roll management and if you stay disciplined you will do more than ok.

[bullheaddad]

Please don't drop 40% of your BRoll on one game, you will probably get lucky and win now but then will come a time when you lose but that loss will cause you to press harder and that will be your downfall. 1-4% of bankroll in one unit is a waste of time lads in the long run you won't make good money (or at least anything worth all the effort and stress you put into this game we call punting). 5% should be a small play or half unit and 10% normal unit. I say this because if your are betting something of value to your bankroll ie 10% you will stay more focused and not just bet for the sake... It keeps you awake and disciplined in a way. And it allows you to see growth when you win. So obviously if you have 5k and play 500 to win 400 and you win your balance is 5400 so this the unit should increase.... Same if you lose the 500 your blance then is 4500 your unit drops to 450 @ 10% a unit ;-) anyways this is my formula for bank roll management and if you stay disciplined you will do more than ok.

this works well too.. DISCIPLINED is the key word here..

[iceman02]

Please don't drop 40% of your BRoll on one game, you will probably get lucky and win now but then will come a time when you lose but that loss will cause you to press harder and that will be your downfall. 1-4% of bankroll in one unit is a waste of time lads in the long run you won't make good money (or at least anything worth all the effort and stress you put into this game we call punting). 5% should be a small play or half unit and 10% normal unit. I say this because if your are betting something of value to your bankroll ie 10% you will stay more focused and not just bet for the sake... It keeps you awake and disciplined in a way. And it allows you to see growth when you win. So obviously if you have 5k and play 500 to win 400 and you win your balance is 5400 so this the unit should increase.... Same if you lose the 500 your blance then is 4500 your unit drops to 450 @ 10% a unit ;-) anyways this is my formula for bank roll management and if you stay disciplined you will do more than ok.

so bet anywhere from .5 to 10%?

[Cuse0323]

Could have had that Rangers money.



Enjoy the grind and losing it all anyway with that great advice from these fools.

[WalkingLuckCharm]

Could have had that Rangers money.



Enjoy the grind and losing it all anyway with that great advice from these fools.

I stand by what I said. Whether he took that rangers bet and won or took okc today and loss does not affect the outcome of the matter. Burial in the long term

[Cuse0323]

I stand by what I said. Whether he took that rangers bet and won or took okc today and loss does not affect the outcome of the matter. Burial in the long term

Don't have to put it all on every game. But, enjoy grinding pennies.

[WalkingLuckCharm]

Don't have to put it all on every game. But, enjoy grinding pennies.

I bet on average 2-500$ a game. You must be more of a higher roller than I am but I live for this grind.

This grind is the only way to win if you choose to be a volume bettor over a spot bettor

[WalkingLuckCharm]

Could have had that Rangers money.



Enjoy the grind and losing it all anyway with that great advice from these fools.

I really don't see how you don't understand that the result of the next game was irrelevant but rather his strategy. Singular games are over after the game finishes. Strategy sticks with every play he decides after that.

Once against OP, don't listen to these long term losing EV players

[Cuse0323]

I really don't see how you don't understand that the result of the next game was irrelevant but rather his strategy. Singular games are over after the game finishes. Strategy sticks with every play he decides after that.

Once against OP, don't listen to these long term losing EV players

I get it, been doing it long enough to know all strategies. I'd rather put my money on one game with a great shot to win than try to grind and grind, when in the end you're either making not enough for the effort or losing it anyway.

If you had it figured out, like you seem to think...you wouldn't be posting here and would be rich.

We all lose in the long run regardless of what method we employ.

[iceman02]

Thank you guys. I didnt make that dumb bet

[WalkingLuckCharm]

I get it, been doing it long enough to know all strategies. I'd rather put my money on one game with a great shot to win than try to grind and grind, when in the end you're either making not enough for the effort or losing it anyway.

If you had it figured out, like you seem to think...you wouldn't be posting here and would be rich.

We all lose in the long run regardless of what method we employ.

I ain't rich but I'm quite sure I'm one of the more wealthier ones here lol. Once again you miss the point again. It's not about figuring something g out or not. It's not even about questioning whether you win or lose in the long run (disagree completely with you but I appreciate your honesty that you are a losing capper, not many on this forum can do that).

The point is once again, BRM. There's really no other word to highlight.

BRM

[WalkingLuckCharm]

Or perhaps just listening to your last post it seems that you should try learn rather than teach.

Maybe you shouldn't judge the opportunities and potential of capping based on your losing history. I find it absurd how you think everyone loses in the long run when there are so many people in the world that are long terms winners.

Hell I even know a few on SBR that are consistent winners.

Like I said in my earlier post; pride does cost money. And it seems in this case you have too much pride too learn. Another leak that should be worked on.

[WalkingLuckCharm]

I'd rather put money on one game rather than grind and grind;

I can tell you for a fact this is the very first thing you have to fix, not only in capping but in life. Unfortunately most gamblers have the same mindset of win easy money and don't work hard.

No. Do your part. Do your work. And maybe one day you'll realise that not all people lose in the long run.

This is around my 5th year. First 3 years I lost a lot. Probably more than you ever had in your hands. It was OK because I was backed through poker and full time work. The last 2 years has been VERY profitable

[Cuse0323]

I'd rather put money on one game rather than grind and grind;

I can tell you for a fact this is the very first thing you have to fix, not only in capping but in life. Unfortunately most gamblers have the same mindset of win easy money and don't work hard.

No. Do your part. Do your work. And maybe one day you'll realise that not all people lose in the long run.

This is around my 5th year. First 3 years I lost a lot. Probably more than you ever had in your hands. It was OK because I was backed through poker and full time work. The last 2 years has been VERY profitable

Eh, I'm not gonna get into how much I lost. Some people here may know, doesn't matter either way. I know I could grind and know how to win in the long run now but I no longer have the means. Plus, I never would do it as it's not worth time and effort to me. I gamble to gamble, not to make money. To each their own, I know there are winners.

[Cuse0323]

Or perhaps just listening to your last post it seems that you should try learn rather than teach.

Maybe you shouldn't judge the opportunities and potential of capping based on your losing history. I find it absurd how you think everyone loses in the long run when there are so many people in the world that are long terms winners.

Hell I even know a few on SBR that are consistent winners.

Like I said in my earlier post; pride does cost money. And it seems in this case you have too much pride too learn. Another leak that should be worked on.

Not trying to teach, just hate people that preach but in reality that's what this place should be for. I have a different mindset than most here so I forgot that at times...plus when I'm posting late, you can bet I'm just fckin around and not really trying to have an educated discussion on matters. I'm over all that but some new gamblers don't know the ropes so here you are...teach up.