Should I hedge?

[seaborneq]

1. Basketball Futures - 2009 College Basketball Post Season Tournaments
Atlantic Coast Conference
Team to win the Atlantic Coast Conference
Duke (+300) [pending]

Should I take the points, ML or ride it out? I have a while to think about it. I am thinking about taking the points and hope to win on both ends. Feedback.

[Robust]

if you have to hedge, i would take the points.. but i would just let it play out..

but i am on a current losing streak, so fade my advice

Robust

[MonkeyF0cker]

I would hedge it ML, personally.

[sickler]

For me, to hedge or not to hedge would depend how much money I stand to win.

[MonkeyF0cker]

You can't beat getting +300 ML for Duke here though. On second thought, I'd let it ride.

[seaborneq]

For me, to hedge or not to hedge would depend how much money I stand to win.

Let see, it is 3-1 odds.

10=30
100=300
1000=3000
10000=30000
100000=300000

Its just zeros. What difference does it make with what you are going to make, it is all the same? Just zeros. Poor people have to eat, drive, and work too. Help me out and pretend like I am Warren Buffet and not homeless Joe.

[Iwinyourmoney]

I would say......hedge it for whatever you bet on it. If you risked $100 on, take FSU + the points for $110 to win $100. Who knows........you may hit em both, but Id say at least hedge for what you have invested

[seaborneq]

I would say......hedge it for whatever you bet on it. If you risked $100 on, take FSU + the points for $110 to win $100. Who knows........you may hit em both, but Id say at least hedge for what you have invested

That makes a lot of sense.

[Iwinyourmoney]

That makes a lot of sense.

therefore, you are quarenteed not to lose any money on a wager, but have a chance of making good money. A gamblers dream, not risking a cent to hit a good chunk

[MonkeyF0cker]

If you're going to do that, I'd hedge it ML. It takes much less of your potential profit away. I don't know if there's a line out yet but I'm guessing Duke will only be a 4 point favorite or so tomorrow.

[Iwinyourmoney]

If you're going to do that, I'd hedge it ML. It takes much less of your potential profit away. I don't know if there's a line out yet but I'm guessing Duke will only be a 4 point favorite or so tomorrow.

no way, Id say 6 or 6.5

And I do agree with you Monkey on the profit part, BUT doesnt his potential also increase? Duke wins and doesnt cover, he makes a good amount more. The other way, he has no chance of making extra

[The General]

Duke can be beaten so yes I would take advantage of some free cash.

Best of luck to you.

[MonkeyF0cker]

no way, Id say 6 or 6.5

And I do agree with you Monkey on the profit part, BUT doesnt his potential also increase? Duke wins and doesnt cover, he makes a good amount more. The other way, he has no chance of making extra

I'm not at home (at Caesars) right now so I can't run numbers but I'd be surprised to see Duke as that big of a favorite tomorrow. There are also calculations for expected growth in this scenario but again, I can't run the numbers right now and I'd need the lines for the game to be able to do that anyway. I would think leaving the bet as is, without a hedge, would be the best +EG course of action. I'm unable to verify that right now though.

[seaborneq]

I'm not at home (at Caesars) right now so I can't run numbers but I'd be surprised to see Duke as that big of a favorite tomorrow. There are also calculations for expected growth in this scenario but again, I can't run the numbers right now and I'd need the lines for the game to be able to do that anyway. I would think leaving the bet as is, without a hedge, would be the best +EG course of action. I'm unable to verify that right now though.

Great, get back with me.

[pat venditto]

Duke -6 tommorow is the opener.

[smitch124]

There is 6 (BM) and 6.5 (5D)

[seaborneq]

I will gladly take the 6-6.5. No way fsu will not cover that. I am really worried about them winning outright against the Dookies.

[losturmarbles]

did you bet any other futures on the acc?
if so you should count them against your duke future to get a true price of your bet on duke tomorrow.

then decide if you should hedge

[seaborneq]

did you bet any other futures on the acc?
if so you should count them against your duke future to get a true price of your bet on duke tomorrow.

then decide if you should hedge

No, I didn't.

[HedgeHog]

Take FSU +6 for the amount you're wagering on your Duke +300 bet. An upset leaves you even at worst. You still win big with a Duke blowout, and collect both bets with a narrow Duke win.

[WileOut]

I don't know if its been said yet but unless the original bet is a bet that will change your life if it wins, then you have to analzye the hedge bet as you would any other bet. If it is a bet you would take normally, then do it. If not then ride your position out.

If you put your house on Duke to win +300 then of course you should hedge.

[losturmarbles]

i would probably put about half of the initial bet on fsu ml,
if you think fsu is going to cover you should probably put about the same amount as the initial bet on fsu ml.
and forget about trying to middle

[seaborneq]

I really see no way Duke covers this game.

[losturmarbles]

I really see no way Duke covers this game.

then you should bet fsu+6 the amount that you would win with the duke future.

then if duke covers you would net 0.

[seaborneq]

then you should bet fsu+6 the amount that you would win with the duke future.

then if duke covers you would net 0.

Who do know who wants to net zero?

[sickler]

Damn, you're still pondering this?

[seaborneq]

Damn, you're still pondering this?

The line is not up on my book yet. The Greek. Do you want me to wager with a greasy local with a shitty line?

[losturmarbles]

Who do know who wants to net zero?

you said there's no way duke covers

so make that part net 0

[sickler]

The line is not up on my book yet. The Greek. Do you want me to wager with a greasy local with a shitty line?

Greasy could be ok. Some can't help it, it's in their genes.

Shitty line, never....

[seaborneq]

I took the fsu +6.5. Done. Let's Rock.

[Iwinyourmoney]

I took the fsu +6.5. Done. Let's Rock.

Just for your original bet right?

[seaborneq]

Yes. So pulling for a close Duke victory. That means it will be a FSU blowout and break even.

[Iwinyourmoney]

Hope for duke to win by 1-6

[seaborneq]

Hope for duke to win by 1-6

yes, that is going to be tough though, if it is too close it could be a duke straight up loss, if it too far a duke victory by 7. I need this because this was a tough week.

[obama our lord]

If you think your picks suck and that you should bet against yourself, sure.