For now on I'm only playing Nicky's Unders System

Nicky Santoro · 03-13-09, 01:22 AM

onner, be very careful. this system is a moneymaker over 10,000 games, not 3 days like you will do. you can easily go 6-31 over 37 games and quit and then come to montreal looking for me to kill me. this system here is not a sprint, it's a marathon, and unless you will stick to it for a long time, i dont recommend it.

and if you do it, just remember that if you don't get 5 cents or better, do NOT play it.. i know you might get tempted, but don't. and if it still wins, it dont matter, it wasn't a play.

if a game at pinny closes at un 9 + 116, you MUST find un 9 + 121..
if a game at pinny closes at 202.5 un -102, you MUST find a un 202.5 un +103.or you dont play it..

for every 10 totals on the board, you should find about 6 to 9 a day to play if you're making offers at matchy, and you have betjam, 5dimes, too..

good luck and i might start tomorrow too.. and remember, you need patience here. dont quit after 3 days.. it will make you money if you hang in there till the end. this system is proven. i tested it out over many thousands of games.

onthewhat · 03-13-09, 01:25 AM

ok thanks for the advice

I will play it when I have access to games at tip off...will clear my spreadsheet and start over only using these plays

what sports does this work on?

What if nba game on pinny closes at under -202.5 -102, but my book has under 203 -104, how do you calculate the half point or just stay away from those?

Nicky Santoro · 03-13-09, 01:31 AM

Originally posted by onthewhat

ok thanks for the advice

I will play it when I have access to games at tip off...will clear my spreadsheet and start over only using these plays

what sports does this work on?

What if nba game on pinny closes at under -202.5 -102, but my book has under 203 -104, how do you calculate the half point or just stay away from those?

forget trying to figure what a half pt is worth in totals. you are not ready for this.. i can tell you right now if you want, but you will end up going crazy trying to calculate every game.. for now, just go with the regular total..

i recommend you dont do this.. no offence, but this system is NOT fit for you.. i dont see you doing this too long.. you will get bored, OR you will get frustrated after a 6-19 night, followed by a 4-14 night, then quit, then hate my guts with a passion..

i dont want to feel responsible. DON'T DO IT, ONNER.. this system is NOT for you.. you're too inexperienced for this. you need a strong heart for this. fouls at the end will lose you alot of games, OT in basketball will kill you alot.. empty net goals will kill you. 5 runs in the top of the 10th, or a walk off 3 run HR.. a RB breaks a tackle on the final play of the game and goes 83 yds for the TD to lose the under. unders are tough on the heart.

SlickFazzer · 03-13-09, 01:31 AM

good info gentlemen.

onthewhat · 03-13-09, 01:33 AM

nicky the only games i watch are college hoops, i've never watched a hockey game in my life so won't know how i lost those, don't care.

just please tell me what sports it works on...and i bet $10 a game and am not gambling for the money aspect just for the high. do not care if i go 1-4 in terms of money lost...what sports is this useful for

Nicky Santoro · 03-13-09, 01:34 AM

ncaaf, ncaab, nfl, nba, nhl, mlb, cfl

onthewhat · 03-13-09, 01:35 AM

ok i will start tomorrow and in it for the long haul

thanks for the advice

Tsoprano · 03-13-09, 01:37 AM

Gl onner

Nicky Santoro · 03-13-09, 01:39 AM

# of days onner will last with this system?

4.5 days un -125
4.5 days ov +105

tullamore · 03-13-09, 01:43 AM

Originally posted by Nicky Santoro

# of days onner will last with this system?

4.5 days un -125
4.5 days ov +105

What the pinny line, so I know what to bet?

onthewhat · 03-13-09, 01:48 AM

Originally posted by tullamore

What the pinny line, so I know what to bet?

SlickFazzer · 03-13-09, 02:09 AM

never a dull moment around this joint...

AgainstAllOdds · 03-13-09, 02:31 AM

Nicky, you gotta find someway to stop this. You are leading sheep into a wolves den. You have given out a "system" that people are following without even the basic understanding of what they are actually doing.

This will not turn out well.

DeluxeLiner · 03-13-09, 05:21 AM

Can someone discuss this in the think tank, is there actually an edge here?

MonkeyF0cker · 03-13-09, 05:41 AM

Originally posted by onthewhat

ok thanks for the advice

I will play it when I have access to games at tip off...will clear my spreadsheet and start over only using these plays

what sports does this work on?

What if nba game on pinny closes at under -202.5 -102, but my book has under 203 -104, how do you calculate the half point or just stay away from those?

Since I would assume that you don't have any way to obtain these numbers yourself, Ganch wrote a web applet that does this for you. It's aptly named the Half Point Calculator and can be found here:

http://www.sbrforum.com/Betting+Tools/Half+Point+Calculator.aspx

If you plug in those totals for NBA (202.5 -108ov -102un), you'll see that the equivalent price of an under 203 is -107.1. Thus, a 203 -104 is not sufficient. I would highly suggest you beat the Pinny closer by at least 10 cents, however, rather than 5. And you should never round down, always up. So, you should be looking for an under (of at worst) 203 +104 (or 202 +108) in that example.

MonkeyF0cker · 03-13-09, 05:49 AM

Originally posted by DeluxeLiner

Can someone discuss this in the think tank, is there actually an edge here?

Assuming the Pinny market for that total has enough volume to be deemed efficient (which is generally the case in high market sporting events on Pinny), then yes, beating the no vig price of a Pinny closer will give you an edge. There are quite a few threads related to this topic already in the Think Tank, deluxeliner. You should be able to search and find past discussions on this topic.

MonkeyF0cker · 03-13-09, 05:56 AM

This is what people refer to when they speak of "beating the number."

reno cool · 03-13-09, 06:57 AM

You got to admit, this has a much better chance than anything Onthewhat is likely to come up with himself. I also like the fact that Nicky warns about the inevitable downswings. It's so tempting to quit a strategy that runs bad which is formula based... you say to yourself, "I'm forced to make bets that I would never pick myself and I'm losing. Screw it."

MonkeyF0cker · 03-13-09, 07:18 AM

The problem with this is that unless you have a model that can assess totals and allow you to pinpoint numbers that will be on the move (numbers that you'd obviously play if that were the case), then you are at the mercy of each book's market. You will certainly miss a lot of plays that you could have made earlier or at the very least, get a worse number than what was previously available. It also implores you to often play at less reliable or recreational books.

Nicky Santoro · 03-13-09, 10:26 AM

onner, before you start this system, i will tell you why you shouldn't do it.

if you bet every under so far in NBA this year, you'd be down a fair amount.

if you had bet every under in NHL this year so far, you'd be down a bit.

if you bet every under in baseball last year, you would have won big.

if you bet every under in baseball 2 yrs ago, you would have lost.

Now this is close to 10,000 games and you are up, but very little. is it worth it?

this system is good if you do this for the rest of your life and hang in to the end.. it's not worth the work you will put into it to make a small profit every year. yes you should make a profit if you stick by it good, but is it worth it. first of all, i know damn well you will not stick to this.. you dont have much discipline.. we both know. and you need great discipline for this..

onner, dont waste your time.. it is a money maker, but over the very very long haul. this is not a system that has money grow on trees..

like i said, if you are doing it this year in nba and nhl, you are down quite a bit late into the season.. if you will do it, you better stick to this and dont expect to get really rich overnight.

onner, dont do it. save time and just go bet any off lines, you will do better over the long haul...

this system is NOT for you.

fiveteamer · 03-13-09, 10:30 AM

I feel like I'm reading Nicky and onner's pm's here. I feel dirty.

onthewhat · 03-13-09, 10:34 AM

thanks nicky, the bottom line though is gambling isn't for me, but the addiction is too strong

regardless of what i do, i'm not going to win....but this system looks kind of fun so i'll try it for a week or so just to mess around, i want to win but i gamble for the high..no biggie if i lose...

donjuan · 03-13-09, 11:41 AM

The problem with this is that unless you have a model that can assess totals and allow you to pinpoint numbers that will be on the move (numbers that you'd obviously play if that were the case), then you are at the mercy of each book's market. You will certainly miss a lot of plays that you could have made earlier or at the very least, get a worse number than what was previously available. It also implores you to often play at less reliable or recreational books.

Well worth the risk IMO.

jjgold · 03-13-09, 11:47 AM

OnTheWhat does not have the bankroll or time to do this. Nicky what are you doing here? You are going to bury this poor kid. I feel bad what will happen here. This will not be a happy ending.

Nicky Santoro · 03-13-09, 11:52 AM

i told him not to do it, but he is not listening. this is not a 3 day investment like he will do. it's a 15 yr investment to show a good profit.. onner get out.. you dont have the discipline for this..

MonkeyF0cker · 03-13-09, 11:57 AM

Originally posted by donjuan

Well worth the risk IMO.

Agreed. Soft numbers make things much easier. Too many books move on air these days.

smitch124 · 03-13-09, 11:57 AM

Yes Nicky's right this system is akin to cutting out coupons and collecting them for their cash value on the back. You'll make money but get no rush.

MonkeyF0cker · 03-13-09, 12:27 PM

This "system" is also flawed in that it doesn't account for the individual edge on a game. If you only beat the Pinny under by 5 cents, chances are that a novice who isn't utilizing Kelly staking will be overbetting in relation to their bankroll. That is why I recommend getting at least 10 cents better than the closer. If you are overbetting, you run a far greater chance of ruin. Another concern is that it only accounts for unders. This can be applied to many more areas of wagering.

donjuan · 03-13-09, 12:49 PM

Nicky doesn't understand Kelly so he mocks it. Pretty amusing, really.

MonkeyF0cker · 03-13-09, 01:09 PM

Too true.