How To Know if a Line Has Value

[Jcole94]

Australia to get to the quarter finals would be like 30/1, SK played at home and it was also 44/1 to get to the semis, Turkey I dont remember but I would put it on 100/1 to reach the semis. Totaly different, we are talking here about Tahiti, they dont even have fields in Thaiti men, they were happy just to get on a plane! U really cant understand crap about football. Just tell me the last time a 1-1000 won a bet and I give you right

Greece? Dude have u seen how many teams have won the euro? Denmark won the Euro too, Euro is just unpredicable because most teams in Europe can beat each other on any given day. Comparing Greece to win the Euro against Australia to win the WC is another idiotic comparison. As is for Iraq, a country that has a professional league and tradition in football before the Wars and has a few dozens of millions of inhabitants winning a regional cup, to Tahiti, who has one professional player, a laughable football league and a few thousand guys living on the Island, beating the World and European champions.

Would I have made that bet? No. Was he ever going to lose it? penetrate no, not even if Spain played with its 5 men futsal team...and if you cant understand that, u dont know a thing about football

except tahiti don't have to beat them. All they have to do is keep them from scoring. Do I think it was a realistic chance of him losing that bet? no but there is still a chance lol. crappy part time english clubs have beaten premier league sides in the FA Cup before.

If Tahiti had an organised defence, despite being part timers I would say there would be a chance, a very small one of him losing 5k.

[Jcole94]

And actually my example about Australia was just random to say very low odds can be value
these 1.01 odds doesn't even exist

Pinnacle offers this



1.001 no value, but if the odds were 1.01 i think there would be a value

even tho I don't think Australia will win the world cup, I wouldn't put any money considering the odds. Australia almost took points against brazil in 06 and no one expected that type of performance

Austraia has beaten teams such as Brazil, France, Netherlands, England before...

[Burkina2008]

except tahiti don't have to beat them. All they have to do is keep them from scoring. Do I think it was a realistic chance of him losing that bet? no but there is still a chance lol. crappy part time english clubs have beaten premier league sides in the FA Cup before.

If Tahiti had an organised defence, despite being part timers I would say there would be a chance, a very small one of him losing 5k.

Dude u still dont get it? English football is professional until tier 5 and even most teams in tear 6. Under that they dont play FA Cup...so there was never a crappy part time english team beating a premiership one in the FA Cup. Besides a team playing the 2nd round of the FA Cup is not the same as a high importance match in a continental competition

Tahiti doesnt have a defense at all, if they had an organised defense the odds would be diferent. That Tahiti team even a team of amputees could beat them

even tho I don't think Australia will win the world cup, I wouldn't put any money considering the odds. Australia almost took points against brazil in 06 and no one expected that type of performance

Austraia has beaten teams such as Brazil, France, Netherlands, England before...

They lost 2-0. And to win the world cup they would have to beat not one of those teams but at least 4-5 of that level and playing with a top-11 not like on some crappy friendly

[Jcole94]

Dude u still dont get it? English football is professional until tier 5 and even most teams in tear 6. Under that they dont play FA Cup...so there was never a crappy part time english team beating a premiership one in the FA Cup. Besides a team playing the 2nd round of the FA Cup is not the same as a high importance match in a continental competition

Tahiti doesnt have a defense at all, if they had an organised defense the odds would be diferent. That Tahiti team even a team of amputees could beat them



They lost 2-0. And to win the world cup they would have to beat not one of those teams but at least 4-5 of that level and playing with a top-11 not like on some crappy friendly

ok i was wrong. putting 5k on the line for $30 is great value nvm.

"they lost 2-0" cmon man. when you look at these things you should look at the performance. If someone put 5k on Brazil id tell them they were very lucky it wasn't a draw.

and well yeah in the round of 16 they almost beat italy who were the eventual champions. Putting big money on a favorite for very small payback is dumb.

also please stop pretending like I don't know anything. I've watched football for years and not to mention playing games such as football manager gives me a lot of knowledge

[puregambling]

Your bet has value when its line drops.

[Burkina2008]

ok i was wrong. putting 5k on the line for $30 is great value nvm.

"they lost 2-0" cmon man. when you look at these things you should look at the performance. If someone put 5k on Brazil id tell them they were very lucky it wasn't a draw.

and well yeah in the round of 16 they almost beat italy who were the eventual champions. Putting big money on a favorite for very small payback is dumb.

also please stop pretending like I don't know anything. I've watched football for years and not to mention playing games such as football manager gives me a lot of knowledge

what u dont understand is that Australia does not compare to Tahiti (they would be at least a 1 to 200 favourite against them) and that comparing winning a game against Italy or Australia, does not compare to winning a WC.

[tipsadontlikehim]

Jcole, just a reminder, Tahiti before their match against Spain lost 0-8 to Uruguay, and 1-6 to Nigeria.

Seeing them celebrating their goal against Nigeria was hilarious, it was like they won the world cup.

I never said my bet at 1.006 was great, i am just telling the truth i did bet 5K to enjoy the match

[Jcole94]

what u dont understand is that Australia does not compare to Tahiti (they would be at least a 1 to 200 favourite against them) and that comparing winning a game against Italy or Australia, does not compare to winning a WC.

I'm Australian. of course tahiti is complete shit, i just don't think I would risk 5k even if its a very small chance tahiti's defence becomes rock solid or spain miss all their shots. last time tahiti played australia it finished 9-0 lol

[tipsadontlikehim]

betting Tahiti win or draw vs Spain would be like betting on this african swimmer http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature...YG6Uq6OVU#t=36

[Jcole94]

Jcole, just a reminder, Tahiti before their match against Spain lost 0-8 to Uruguay, and 1-6 to Nigeria.

Seeing them celebrating their goal against Nigeria was hilarious, it was like they won the world cup.

I never said my bet at 1.006 was great, i am just telling the truth i did bet 5K to enjoy the match

imagine if tahiti's defence turned up somehow(stranger shit has happened) and trying to explain to someone how you risked 5k for $30 lol

[tipsadontlikehim]

imagine if tahiti's defence turned up somehow(stranger shit has happened) and trying to explain to someone how you risked 5k for $30 lol

lol
by the way Australia awesome country, lived there 2 years, i remember back in 2012 an aussie guy bet 100.000 on Nadal to beat Lacko at 1.01 read it on the news

[lamichaeljames]

You cannot compare pinnacle lines anymore verse and other books and call it a sharp line

Once pinnacle lost most American players that line became generic just with some low juice factored in

As far as European sports pinnacle does not take enough volume to call the sharp line with soccer and tennis

JJ,

What books are you using, if any? Beating Pinnacle closing lines should still indicate value.

[Ryan999]

You cannot compare pinnacle lines anymore verse and other books and call it a sharp line

Once pinnacle lost most American players that line became generic just with some low juice factored in

As far as European sports pinnacle does not take enough volume to call the sharp line with soccer and tennis

Pinnacle's limits are based upon the volume of bets they receive. Limits for the Super Bowl were $250,000. Champions League semi finals and finals $200,000. World Cup group stage limits are at least $100,000 and will be bumped up to 1 MILLION for the Final. Pinnacle is getting a ton of volume and thus shaping the sharpest line around with the biggest limits. The American market is minuscule compared to the ASIAN market and all the others Pinnacle has cornered.

[Ryan999]

As far as European sports pinnacle does not take enough volume to call the sharp line with soccer and tennis

That comment is laughable. 1 MILLION Dollar limits on the World Cup Final and consistently have $50,000-$200,000 limits on Soccer matches. They were taking $50,000 on "friendly " matches just last week.

[Ryan999]

How to Calculate Expected Value

(Probability of Wining) x (Amount Won per Bet) – (Probability of Losing) x (Amount Lost per Bet)
1. Find the decimal odds for each outcome (win, lose, draw)
2. Calculate the potential winnings for each outcome by multiplying your stake by the decimal, and then subtract the stake.
3. Divide 1 by the odds of an outcome to calculate the probability of that outcome
4. Substitute this information into the above formula.
For example, when Manchester United (1.263) play Wigan (13.500), with a draw at 6.500, a bet of $10 on Wigan to win would provide potential winnings of $125, with the probability of that happening at 0.074 or 7.4%.
The probability of this outcome not occurring is the sum of Man Utd and a draw, or 0.792 + 0.154 = 0.946. The amount lost per bet is the initial wager – $10. Therefore the complete formula looks like:
(0.074 x $125) – (0.946 x $10) = -$0.20
The Estimated Value (EV) is negative for this bet, suggesting that you will lose an average of $0.20 for every $10 staked.

*Written By Jack Ratcliffe*

[The Kraken]

Everyone can quote what value is, it's stats 101. Most have no clue at all how to determine value. A few things to remember however.

Any line can have value -400/+400, doesn't matter, they can both have value. They can both also be -EV bets.

In order to estimate the value at a given line, you must know your edge. This is where 99.9999% of bettors fail. It's not easy and honestly, you never truly know your edge. But that's ok, consistency is the key.

Determining edge is based on modeling. A lot goes into this and it varies by person. It is also very fluid, or dynamic, it's not a static process at all. Ex. Last year your models were great at predicting value and you won a lot of money. This year it stinks. Why is that? Something changed, you've got to tweak it constantly.

Value varies. Some lines have a little value, some have moderate amounts of value and rarely, some lines have a ton of value (shot taker!). You should bet them all and vary your bet size based off of the amount of perceived value that you have.

True value is becoming much harder to find. Books caught up with the quant guys and wiped out a ton of edge.

Even when you know your edge and can find value, you still have swings. Variance still exists for +ev guys. And then your limits get slashed. And then booted.

The whole objective of being able to find value is to maximize your expected growth (EG). Basically, make bank. You need to also factor into this your time. Your time is not free. If your not a programmer, you'll have to factor in that as well. They don't work for free. Overwhelming odds are, you could maximize EG by spending your time doing something else.

So in summary, the whole value thing isn't easy. It's a major time investment up front and you need a good model and a great grasp of quant.

You're much better off getting on JJ's email list, the one he emails his plays out every morning and fading those picks.

Play for fun, it's much funner that way.

[The Kraken]

you just know

No, you just know when a girl has a dirty ass.

I do anyways

[Martinr]

you just know

This statement has some truth. If you have a gut feeling that a line has value, this gut feeling can be coming from an accumulated knowledge of the sport that is sitting in the subconscious. You see a line, and the store of knowledge tells you the line is wrong. I know a number of horse bettors that have this ability to spot value, without necessarily being able to explain where it lies.

[GunShard]

If earlier in the week the opening line is at +110 then becomes -150 later that week. Then value is to bet earlier in the week to get value.
Vice versa: opening line at -150 then later in the week +110. Then the value is to bet later in the week.
This is common sense.

[shopp]

Value in Brazil at home

[shopp]

Value

[shopp]

Value in

[shopp]

Brazil

[shopp]

The Amazon value

[shopp]

Who else has value?

[shopp]

Costa Rica?

[shopp]

Italy?

[shopp]

Chile?

[shopp]

Uruguay?

[PassTheDutchie]

This is the problem with this type of bet. In 2006 no one expected Australia to do any good but they got the the round of 16 and could have easily beaten Italy(the winners) . they lost in the 94th minute due to a controversial decision. if they beat italy they would have made it to the quarter finals...anything can happen. What about in 2002 when South Korea and Turkey were in the semis.

would it have been idea to stack greece to not win the euro 2004? huh your mentality is flawed

Korea in 2002 and Australia in 2006 were both coached by Guus Hiddink.
That is were you find your value...

[BettingWizard]

Value is a misused term. Nothing is value if it gets beat

since when do you have to win every bet to make money? Are you suggesting we all become psychic?

Every single time you said in your life "oh this team has no chance, lay whatever odds on the other team" or " I don't see this team winning/covering" you were right?

[zizoudane10]

No, you just know when a girl has a dirty ass.

I do anyways

She really had
Rod