How To Know if a Line Has Value

[Jetsfan]

Is it possible that odds shorter than 1.6 have value? Do you even remotely consider a line shorter than 1.6?

[Optional]

Is it possible that odds shorter than 1.6 have value? Do you even remotely consider a line shorter than 1.6?

Yes, it's possible that odds of $1.60 have value. The same as its possible that $1.10 or $4.25 shots have value.

Value is about the difference between the odds and the actual probability that bet can win.

You need to have your own method to calculate the actual probability before you have any idea what is value and what is not.

Not wanting to risk your money for less than a 60% profit return is just a personal decision and has nothing to do with value.

[tipsadontlikehim]

remember this soccer match between Spain and Tahiti http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-S8Ic-O_cs

marathonbet opened the odds @1.006

I thought there was a small value, and pounded 5K on it,

i honestly didn't give a f/ck.

[SarahPalin]

remember this soccer match between Spain and Tahiti http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-S8Ic-O_cs

marathonbet opened the odds @1.006

I thought there was a small value, and pounded 5K on it,

i honestly didn't give a f/ck.

i loved watching that game but as said here here straight value at 1.006 and as myself usually all my bets are around 1.6

[tipsadontlikehim]

i loved watching that game

Yeah was pleasant to watch indeed.

[TheCentaur]

If it is well off the pinnacle line in your favor it probably has value

[ProlificalD]

If you are talking about baseball where there might be only 1-2 games a day where the favourite is 1.6, it is possible to have value. I seldom consider them as they are just harder to find the value with the models I use.

[Sawyer]

Is it possible that odds shorter than 1.6 have value? Do you even remotely consider a line shorter than 1.6?

Sure, even 1,40 can be a value bet sometimes.

The only way to decide if a bet is value or not is to compare the line/odd you found with pinnacle line.

For example,

Let's say Grasshoppers to win is 1,75 at your bookie.
It's 1,59 at Pinnacle. Then Grass to win is a value bet.

That's the UNIVERSAL DEFINITON of value bet.

PS: Minor leagues with low limits are not reliable for value betting.

[shaunovery]

Value is a misused term. Nothing is value if it gets beat

[Vaughany]

Value is a misused term. Nothing is value if it gets beat

hmmm no. If I bet on Team A double chance at +20000 and they are drawing 1-1 until 93rd min and then referee gives a dodgy penalty to Team B which they score I would still say that I was on the right side in terms of value and would happily bet it again and again in future even though it lost this time.

[jjgold]

You cannot compare pinnacle lines anymore verse and other books and call it a sharp line

Once pinnacle lost most American players that line became generic just with some low juice factored in

As far as European sports pinnacle does not take enough volume to call the sharp line with soccer and tennis

[HeeeHAWWWW]

Value is a misused term.

Yes - as you go on to prove with your next sentence.

Nothing is value if it gets beat

Value is an estimate of the probability of a future event occuring, thus the "if" makes no sense here.

[onemoregoal]

Value is a misused term. Nothing is value if it gets beat

If you got odds of Algeria to win the WC at +100000000000000000000000000000, thats value - but they wont win it.......u still had value, tho

[HeeeHAWWWW]

If you got odds of Algeria to win the WC at +100000000000000000000000000000, thats value - but they wont win it.......u still had value, tho

That's probably what people said about Senegal's opening match in world cup 2002, against the reigning champions France.

[onemoregoal]

senegal beating france isnt the same as algeria winning the whole world cup.
im making a point about value, not having a go at algeria.

[jjgold]

Lines are rarely off

May be in some of the less volume sports it's possible to clip some value

[Jcole94]

remember this soccer match between Spain and Tahiti http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-S8Ic-O_cs

marathonbet opened the odds @1.006

I thought there was a small value, and pounded 5K on it,

i honestly didn't give a f/ck.

so you made $30? lol

[tipsadontlikehim]

If you got AUSTRALIA to not win the world cup @1.01 it is value

[Jcole94]

yes i did
like i said i didn't give a f/ck, 30€ is 30€, you can buy a few things with it

stupid bet imo. sometimes a really weak team can park the bus for 90 minutes and not concede. New Zealand in the 2010 world cup was the only undefeated team. imagine if you bet 5k against them

[tipsadontlikehim]

how can you compare New zealand and Tahiti, lol

[TheCentaur]

You cannot compare pinnacle lines anymore verse and other books and call it a sharp line

Once pinnacle lost most American players that line became generic just with some low juice factored in

As far as European sports pinnacle does not take enough volume to call the sharp line with soccer and tennis

Pinnacle and Matchbook have the sharpest players (they don't get limited or banned) with the lowest juice, Matchbook basically mirroring Pinnacle's lines

If that isn't a recipe for the sharpest line I don't know what is

[TheLock]

Nothing is value if it gets beat

Uhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

[Antibet]

Just get at least +101 on a coin flip and do it consistently, that's it

[Big Bear]

Value is percieved.

Value is an opinion you form after you have done your research.

good luck on your plays man. Hang on , its a roller coaster.

[EaglesPhan36]

Value is about the delusion in your mind that makes you take a losing pick because you're a blue light special, bargain shopping, dollar menu eating r-tard. That's the Wikipedia definition.

[MakePwithMe]

Well its simple to me when you research you will know if your line holds any value.

Hard work pays dividends, enough analysing of games automatically entices the human mind to identify if a book is overvaluing or undervaluing a team.

[Burkina2008]

If you got AUSTRALIA to not win the world cup @1.01 it is value

This is value! The could play this world cup billions of times and Australia would never come on top

stupid bet imo. sometimes a really weak team can park the bus for 90 minutes and not concede. New Zealand in the 2010 world cup was the only undefeated team. imagine if you bet 5k against them

Comparing Tahiti to NZ is just stupid. It was the same game as if the Heat would play against your high school team. Even if you could foul as much as you wanted, you would be beat hard. Tahiti are 90% of amateur players, that have as day jobs, mailman, grocery store cashier...etc. They could have put the 10 guys on the goal like and the keeper in front, that Spain would have crushed the shit out of them.

[jjgold]

They have sites that show value..no idea how accurate it is though

[Jcole94]

This is value! The could play this world cup billions of times and Australia would never come on top

This is the problem with this type of bet. In 2006 no one expected Australia to do any good but they got the the round of 16 and could have easily beaten Italy(the winners) . they lost in the 94th minute due to a controversial decision. if they beat italy they would have made it to the quarter finals...anything can happen. What about in 2002 when South Korea and Turkey were in the semis.

would it have been idea to stack greece to not win the euro 2004? huh your mentality is flawed

[Jcole94]

Comparing Tahiti to NZ is just stupid. It was the same game as if the Heat would play against your high school team. Even if you could foul as much as you wanted, you would be beat hard. Tahiti are 90% of amateur players, that have as day jobs, mailman, grocery store cashier...etc. They could have put the 10 guys on the goal like and the keeper in front, that Spain would have crushed the shit out of them.

haha the old "amateur players" excuse. Iraq is made up of part time players but yet they won the 2007 asian cup. They beat South Korea, Australia and Saudi Arabia. All those were upsets against full time professionals.

This year Stan Wawrinka won the Australian Open. He had to beat Djokovic and Nadal to win. I just think its a stupid idea to put 5k on a favorite even a heavy favorite. especially for $30

[Burkina2008]

This is the problem with this type of bet. In 2006 no one expected Australia to do any good but they got the the round of 16 and could have easily beaten Italy(the winners) . they lost in the 94th minute due to a controversial decision. if they beat italy they would have made it to the quarter finals...anything can happen. What about in 2002 when South Korea and Turkey were in the semis.

would it have been idea to stack greece to not win the euro 2004? huh your mentality is flawed

Australia to get to the quarter finals would be like 30/1, SK played at home and it was also 44/1 to get to the semis, Turkey I dont remember but I would put it on 100/1 to reach the semis. Totaly different, we are talking here about Tahiti, they dont even have fields in Thaiti men, they were happy just to get on a plane! U really cant understand crap about football. Just tell me the last time a 1-1000 won a bet and I give you right

Greece? Dude have u seen how many teams have won the euro? Denmark won the Euro too, Euro is just unpredicable because most teams in Europe can beat each other on any given day. Comparing Greece to win the Euro against Australia to win the WC is another idiotic comparison. As is for Iraq, a country that has a professional league and tradition in football before the Wars and has a few dozens of millions of inhabitants winning a regional cup, to Tahiti, who has one professional player, a laughable football league and a few thousand guys living on the Island, beating the World and European champions.

Would I have made that bet? No. Was he ever going to lose it? penetrate no, not even if Spain played with its 5 men futsal team...and if you cant understand that, u dont know a thing about football

[Deken00]

Does anyone employ strategies of looking for divergence from a "sharp" book? I have noticed one could arbitrage on occasion but have felt with limits and the difficulty of transacting that it has not been worth it

[tipsadontlikehim]

haha the old "amateur players" excuse. Iraq is made up of part time players but yet they won the 2007 asian cup. They beat South Korea, Australia and Saudi Arabia. All those were upsets against full time professionals.

This year Stan Wawrinka won the Australian Open. He had to beat Djokovic and Nadal to win. I just think its a stupid idea to put 5k on a favorite even a heavy favorite. especially for $30

i can't believe you are comparing Spain-Tahiti with Wawrinka winning the AO.

I'd better compare with this match: http://www.tennisexplorer.com/mutual/murray/zayed/
I watched the match, Andy Murray tried hard to lose one game but he didn't manage to, the other guy was too bad.

[tipsadontlikehim]

when i say Spain to beat Tahiti @1.006 was value, i am being of course a bit provocative, but seriously to me this is the kind of game where bookmakers should not open any odds on Spain to win the match.

And i know many bookies actually didn't open odds, Marathon did.

[tipsadontlikehim]

And actually my example about Australia was just random to say very low odds can be value
these 1.01 odds doesn't even exist

Pinnacle offers this



1.001 no value, but if the odds were 1.01 i think there would be a value