What has been "proven" in sports betting

[statnerds]

It'll help losing players that are +EV but -EG though, by definition (ie those making good bets but drastically over-staking). That seems to be rather a lot of people.

The simulation: you can select a negative to plus error range, and definitely should do so imo.

i do like that. now you have me considering the true crux of the problem. i tend to believe the majority of bettors are -EV players. however, more than willing to accept your premise and explore that a potential larger problem isn't -EV, but a lack of discipline. but if over staking is the problem why not just tie these players to 1% flat betting and keep them there?

maybe if we could get bettors to start at the end, ie what figure they want to achieve, and work backwards. it would introduce a whole bunch of reality to the equation.

but i do like where you are coming from on this post. love when a post makes me review my stance on an issue.

[HeeeHAWWWW]

i tend to believe the majority of bettors are -EV players.

Yeah, I'd go with that - if I had to guess I'd say 95%+. Obviously no staking system can help them (well aside from results suggesting they are -EV, then Kelly says not to stake at all!).

however, more than willing to accept your premise and explore that a potential larger problem isn't -EV, but a lack of discipline. but if over staking is the problem why not just tie these players to 1% flat betting and keep them there?

Ultimately the purpose of using Kelly is optimal bankroll growth, both theoretical and practical (in my larger backtests it consistently provides about 20-25% more RoI). Thus, it's more of a refinement than a critical component - as long as you're not over-staking you're fine.

The major problem with stake sizes of 1% is how difficult it is to make any serious profit. For example, if your average edge is 5%, to achieve 50% (median) bankroll growth you'll need around 900 bets. Partly that just reflects a basic truth of gambling: you need either very large volume, or a hefty bankroll.

[Jason Jones]

This is complicated stuff lol