How to throw a ton of money away instead of working... [Personal Thread]

TheSportsAnalyst · 03-27-14, 12:18 PM

Sri Lanka 189/4 v England 190/4

England won by 6 wickets with 4 balls left

Great game, pretty boring until mid second inning and then really incredible.
Bet lost but exciting to watch.

Cheers to England which kept their hopes alive.

LOST -5u

jjgold · 03-27-14, 03:25 PM

Keep us updated with accurate records

good luck

Russian Rocket · 03-27-14, 04:14 PM

hey, so if -175 is above average play/good value with low odds...give me an example of some of the other plays with high odds that you normally bet on. Do you go as far as betting something in 1.30-1.40 range?

TheSportsAnalyst · 03-27-14, 05:10 PM

Originally posted by Russian Rocket

hey, so if -175 is above average play/good value with low odds...give me an example of some of the other plays with high odds that you normally bet on. Do you go as far as betting something in 1.30-1.40 range?

Not sure if you're trolling or what.
I stated that 1.57 are low odds to me. 1.85/1.90 is the average, but it actually depends on the sport.

Plain and simple: I took 1.57 (63.69% implied chance) because I rated Sri Lanka win very likely, in the 70-75% range.
More than 10% is good value to me but odds were low compared to my usual average, so, given the value, I decided to pump up the stake a lil' bit playing 5 units instead of the usual 4.
The price I got looked a steal for almost than 80% of the match: Sri Lanka had a superb inning at bat and started bowling very well forcing England to have a 12.0 runs/over avg. in order to win the game.
Then the british men just made a miracle with the greatest comeback (190 runs) in the Twenty20 history.
A.k.a. an event with a very unlikely chance of happening again if we'll re-run the match 100 more times.

Don't know if you're familiar with cricket but nobody could blame anyone who was on Sri Lanka today: England was just great, hats off.
This time I got unlucky and England very good, but on the long run these aren't bad plays.

In my opinion of course.

P.S. Maybe is just a misunderstanding because to me low odds = everything below 1.75 and high odds are from 2.20 and beyond.
European bookies standard is that one: high odds = bit unlikely, low odds = more likely.
Don't know if using US odds -175 is considered high.

Russian Rocket · 03-27-14, 05:28 PM

no, I wasn't trolling and thanks for the explanation...I'm actually European myself and was just trying to understand what odds you normally bet on.

good luck to ya!

TheSportsAnalyst · 03-27-14, 05:30 PM

Originally posted by Russian Rocket

no, I wasn't trolling and thanks for the explanation

good luck to ya!

Sorry RR, just full of kiddos here!

GL to you!

TheSportsAnalyst · 03-27-14, 08:34 PM

#2 Cricket - T20 World Cup
West Indies to beat Australia @2.54 [*4u]

This is the kind of bets on which you wonder if you're the mug or the smart guy.
As a passionate cricket fan when I first saw Windies offered at 2.66 I felt like a goldminer after his first finding.
Then I realized that it could have been easily a wrong first thought due to my deep admiration for West Indies, so I started digging deeper tring to analyze the match in a objective way.
In a test match or even a ODI game these odds would have probably been considered a steal for Australia, because West Indies are no longer dominant as they once were, but the T20 WC is almost another sport.
A formula created to allow shorter games Twenty20 (20 overs per side) is the best fit for an explosive team like the caribbeans and proper ICC sub-rankings clearly show that the difference between these two teams on this comp is only by 2 ratings points (113 AUS, 111 WI).
Given that I found absolutely worthless the idea to back Australia around 1.55/1.60 but I still had doubts on a bet for Windies on the other side.
West Indies are the defending champions and despite a very talented T20 side they love to play under pressure: tomorrow it could be a in-or-out type of game for both teams so they won't lack motivation.
They've not shown 100% potential so far in the tournament and this could have led oddsmakers to lower their chances to a mere 35-37% for tomorrow, but they have the best duo of spinners between their bowlers in Sunil Narine and Samuel Badree and this could easily be the key matchup considering how Australia suffered spinners in their loss against Pakistan on debut.
Both guys are having a very good tournament so far and if Windies batsmen will start rolling they defeinitely have a chance to win this game against a very big fish like Australia.
In their last 5 T20 matchups Australia only won one, by DL method due to match suspended.
It isn't a long shot and I feel enough confidence to rate this a 4* play.

gtboy · 03-27-14, 10:53 PM

it not wise betting against the ausies but gl.

TheSportsAnalyst · 03-28-14, 07:59 AM

Did you watched the game guys?
That's cricket.
That's why I love West Indies.
And that's why Darren Sammy is WI captain.
Not the best bet of my life in terms of value but definitely worth it.

West Indies 179/4 v Australia 178/8

West Indies won by 6 wickets with 2 balls left

WON +6.12u

I feel sorry for AUS, they are a pretty solid team but definitely done for the comp.
Until the final ball I thought that I was experiencing a youngsters' curse: yesterday Hales with 116 runs, today Maxwell with a 224 SR and 2 catches... Great guys though, they'll have great careers.

yodlegern · 03-28-14, 10:01 AM

Originally posted by gtboy

it not wise betting against the ausies but gl.

lol

TheSportsAnalyst · 03-28-14, 10:27 AM

#3 Basketball/BEL - Ethias League
Liège Basket v Antwerp Giants Under 149.5 @1.85 [*4u]

Both teams are fighting for a better playoff spot since they're already almost sure to get in the postseason.
Tight defenses lately with the hosts averaging only 64.0 PA in their last 3 home matches and Antwerp able to limit opponents to no more than than 75 points 3 times out of 3 recently in Ethias League.
If defenses will take over it will be a very close low scoring one.

thunderous · 03-28-14, 11:50 AM

Since you bet Cricket here is something I have noted- If the first game is full of twists and turns the next one is always straight forward and the fav wins handily. This is more for people who live bet but maybe you can take advantage as well. I am not sure if you would have played India with such low odds but it was easy money. Keep an eye on this happening in IPL

TheSportsAnalyst · 03-28-14, 11:56 AM

Originally posted by thunderous

Since you bet Cricket here is something I have noted- If the first game is full of twists and turns the next one is always straight forward and the fav wins handily. This is more for people who live bet but maybe you can take advantage as well. I am not sure if you would have played India with such low odds but it was easy money. Keep an eye on this happening in IPL

Well yesterday NED v SAF was very thrilling but the closing dh wasn't exactly straight forward for the fav, unluckily for me.

TheSportsAnalyst · 03-28-14, 07:04 PM

Liège Basket v Antwerp Giants 86-75

Not lucky at all with this one as Liege was strongly in command of a very low scoring match (106 points) until the start of 4th quarter.
Then a sudden Antwerp comeback and home team had to push to reset the distances bringing the total to 55 in the last quarter only.

LOST -4u

TheSportsAnalyst · 03-28-14, 07:55 PM

No plays for me in the ICC World Twenty20 tomorrow: Netherlands will probably push NZ hard but even a unit is a bit wasted since I don't think they have the necssary experience to win a match at this level.
England v South Africa outcome, especially now that the absence of Du Plessis (probably SA best batsman, a solid scorecard of 37 runs in 2 innings with a 168 strike rate in the WT20) is official, should be totally random so no great odds value even for a small try.

#4 Handball/GER - Bundesliga
SC Magdeburg to beat N-Lübbecke @2.25 [*4u]
Both teams are in fight for a postseason spot but Magdeburg not only holds two points more than the opponents, but they also look more in shape than Lubbecke which barely beaten two lower table teams in their last two home matches.

TheSportsAnalyst · 03-28-14, 08:48 PM

#5 Handball/EUR - EHF Cup
Sporting (POR) +7 to cover v Montpellier (FRA) @1.85 [*4u]

Group stage of EHF Cup has come to its final round and whilst Montpellier is already qualified to the QF, Sporting need to win to be sure of advancing in the tournament.
Probably even a small loss will be enough to secure a spot in next round but anyway I think it's pretty obvious they'll try to keep the game close.
Do they have enough quality to do it? In my opinion yes, especially against a not so motivated side like Montpellier (they could lose by 2 goals and still have the right to be put in Pot A for QF draw).
7 points is well beyond a security margin for the hosts so they should let Sporting to stay closer.

TheSportsAnalyst · 03-29-14, 08:55 AM

#6 Handball/GER - Bundesliga
HSG Wetzlar v Minden Under 54.5 @1.91 [*4u]

Decent drop in the market by at least 1pt but still some slow bookie at 54.5 so gotta get it.
Total will probably be close since 55 goals is pretty average in Bundesliga but I like to follow the money in this league (only if I'm able to get the opening line ofc).

TheSportsAnalyst · 03-29-14, 09:26 AM

#7 Handball/SPA - Liga ASOBAL
Genil v Guadalajara Under 53.5 @1.91 [*4u]

#8 Basketball/EUR - Adriatic League
MZT Skopje v Radnicki Kragujevac Over 154.5 @1.91 [*4u]

TheSportsAnalyst · 03-29-14, 02:42 PM

#4 N-Lübbecke 24 v SC Magdeburg 30 - SC Magdeburg won WON +5u
#5 Montpellier (FRA) 36 v Sporting (POR) 31 - Sporting lost by 5 WON +3.4u
#6 HSG Wetzlar 23 v Minden 26 - Total pts 49 WON +3.64u
#7 Genil 32 v Guadalajara 23 - Total 55 pts LOST -4u
#8 MZT Skopje 87 v Radnicki Kragujevac 95 - Total pts 182 WON +3.64u

SUMMARY
Record: 5W-3L
Strike Rate: 62.50%
P/L: +8.80u/33u
Yield: +26.67%

maverick4u · 03-29-14, 10:06 PM

Go for India tonight odds have dropped

TheSportsAnalyst · 03-30-14, 03:37 AM

#9 Cricket - ICC World Twenty20
India to beat Australia @2.13 [*4u]

Odds are insane to not give it a try.
India incredibly won all their 3 group matches, each one with full credit, and today they'll face a team almost done while already holding a qualification to the semis.
This would mean lower motivation than Australia and this could be the only reason to have such a price.
But I'm sure that India, after the recent IPL scandal, will not play just for fun, not only to show they're not so fishy as people think but also because if they will win the Group B they've a good chance to avoid Sri Lanka in the semis, picking SA instead, with a definitely more favourable matchup.
A word to describe India in this tournament so far is solid because they've the best partnership of the WT20 in Kohli and Sharma (289 runs combined) and this isn't a great deal for Australia, which have shown weaknesses both in bowling (185 runs allowed on average) and fielding (just 9 wickets in almost 40 full overs).
India and Australia are tied to 4 in T20 H2H but India is 3-0 when the game is played in the indian subcontinent like today.
Just an average play since despite a good value there's always a chance India won't play 100%.

Martinr · 03-30-14, 05:10 AM

Might be best to wait until the Bangladesh/Pakistan game is decided b4 betting against Australia. If Bangladesh beat Pakistan, then Aust is still a chance of advancing by winning last 2 games. Motivation might be a deciding factor.
Also, even if Pakistan do win, Aust will then have no pressure to perform. They will be keen to finish with something from a tournament they were confident of doing well in. They've been disappointing, but it wouldn't surprise if they flog India here.
Good luck with the bet though.
Twenty/20 cricket is the best sport for in-play trading. $30m plus often traded in-play each game on the exchanges.

TheSportsAnalyst · 03-30-14, 05:22 AM

Originally posted by Martinr

Might be best to wait until the Bangladesh/Pakistan game is decided b4 betting against Australia. If Bangladesh beat Pakistan, then Aust is still a chance of advancing by winning last 2 games. Motivation might be a deciding factor.
Also, even if Pakistan do win, Aust will then have no pressure to perform. They will be keen to finish with something from a tournament they were confident of doing well in. They've been disappointing, but it wouldn't surprise if they flog India here.
Good luck with the bet though.
Twenty/20 cricket is the best sport for in-play trading. $30m plus often traded in-play each game on the exchanges.

Yeah Martin, as I said motivation (or lack of) could be a big factor and I'm not completely sold on India due to that reason but Australia is still getting too much credit in T20 format whilst they still have to show something, especially in the subcontinent.
ATM Pakistan isn't screwing up v Bangladesh which is already a news considering how inconsistent they could be but the main reason for my bet is that India at these odds in a T20 match in Asia is a must play imo.

Martinr · 03-30-14, 05:42 AM

Yep, even though this is a very hard game to frame a pre match market on, I agree that any odds above 50% for India is probably value. It does appear that Pakistan is in control of their game.

TheSportsAnalyst · 03-30-14, 11:20 AM

lol what a suicide from AUS batsmen, never seen something similar from a Top5 team...
73 runs... lol again
Got my birthday present one week in advance.

India 159/7 v Australia 86

India won by 73 runs

WON +4.52u

TheSportsAnalyst · 03-30-14, 06:47 PM

#10 Baseball - MLB
Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres U 6.5 @2.00 [*4u]

Ryu has an ERA of 3.00 in 2014 and started the 2014 very well conceeding no runs and only a couple of hits in 5 innings.
Cashner is another very good guy with a career ERA of 3.28 in 30 games, which drops below 3.00 if we consider only the last 2 seasons.
Love to push the under in this West Coast game, especially with this kind of low line which screams for the over.
Since the entire world is on the Dodgers to crush away the Padres it could be a great day for the bookies, and even for me if the game will be tight.

TheSportsAnalyst · 03-31-14, 03:18 AM

Los Angeles Dodgers 1 @ San Diego Padres 3 - Total: 4

A super easy one.

WON +4.00u

SUMMARY BY SPORT:
Cricket: +5.64u
European Basketball: -0.36u
Handball: +8.04u
MLB: +4.00u
TOTAL: +17.32u

tony_come · 03-31-14, 03:38 AM

Strip clubs

ingga · 03-31-14, 04:17 AM

great work
any play for today bro?

TheSportsAnalyst · 03-31-14, 05:46 AM

#11 Cricket - ICC World T20
Sri Lanka to beat New Zealand @ 1.67 [*4u]

Almost a quarter final since the loser will go home and the winner will advance through the semis, with the big advantage of avoiding India in that matchup.
In terms of batting corp I see a slight advantage for Sri Lanka which can lineup a very solid first 4 with K Perera, Dilshan and Jaya all in form and Sangakkara who's always a big danger. They don't need much more since New Zealand isn't a pitching giant and anyway the probable #5 Mathews is an above average guy for that spot.
New Zealand, with the legend BB McCullum at #3 and the very in-form Williamson (104 runs so far in the tournament) who will be in the starting partnership, can easily score something around 135 runs but they will need a better Guptill and once again a solid contribution from the mid-order since probably they'll end up losing 7 wickets with ease.
Of course if we look at the bowlers it's an easy win for Sri Lanka which have the best lineup in the world for a T20 format event.
Mathews and the mistery spinner Mendis both have already collected 4 wickets, and today's captain Malinga is at 3 after 3 innings but the standout of this WT20 tournament is Kulasekara who's topping the team list with 6 outs and only 55 runs allowed in 9 overs for a 6.11 economy rate.
NZL is way below average on paper and their shapest man is the youngster CJ Anderson, 23 years, 4 wickets and a below par average of 19.75.

It will be a very tough duty for NZL which will need wickets to kick off asap the first 4 SL batsmen but considering they averaged only slightly more than 5 wickets per game so far in the WT20 I see basically no chance for them to push SL into the mid order before it will be too late.
They've to win the the toss and bat first to put pressure on Sri Lanka, chosing the most favourable matchup (their batsmen against SL bowlers) to start the game.

Value in SL to win, since after defeat in last match against England they'll play 101% to not lose a semi which looked a lock after their inning in that game a couple of days ago.

TheSportsAnalyst · 03-31-14, 11:25 AM

This is the best T20 tournament ever. Period.

Today we've seen one of the best bowling performance in ages: Herath was able to get 5 wickets (3 bowled) for 3 runs in 21 deliveries with 2 maidens.
Incredible.
And what a captaincy by Malinga. He kept himself out for the powerplay innings, trusted Herath and then left Senanakye to kill the game softly. Amazing.

Probably great conditions for bowling considering NZL effort (119 runs allowed) but incredible anyway. The worst bowling figure for Sri Lanka was Mathew's one with 0-26 in 4 full overs...
Sri Lanka to the semis against PAK v WIndies winner.

Sri Lanka 119 v New Zealand 60

Sri Lanka won by 59 runs

WON +2.68u

Definitely not a great deal at 1.67 since Sri Lanka inning was poor at best but I still had some credit with luck left from that SL v ENG match...

TheSportsAnalyst · 03-31-14, 11:40 AM

#12 Baseball - MLB
Pittsburgh Pirates to beat Chicago Cubs @1.57 [*4u]
#13 Baseball - MLB
Washington Nationals to beat New York Mets @1.61 [*4u]

Definitely not original and pretty juiced plays but I can't avoid to side with PIT and Nationals today to be honest.

#14 Baseball - MLB
Philadelphia Phillies to beat Texas Rangers @1.99 [*4u]

TheSportsAnalyst · 03-31-14, 11:53 AM

#15 Baseball - MLB
St. Louis Cardinals to beat Cincinnati Red @1.80 [*4u]

TheSportsAnalyst · 03-31-14, 12:56 PM

#16 Baseball - MLB
Milwaukee Brewers to beat Atlanta Braves @2.06 [*4u]

#17 Baseball - MLB
Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles Over 8.5 @2.05 [*4u]

#18 Baseball - MLB
Toronto Blue Jays to beat Tampa Bay Rays @2.56 [*4u]