Who thought Wichy isn't for real?

[frostno98]

Got them winning it all at my Intertops bracket contest.

[Albert Pujols]

I've rode this team all year and will continue to ride them every game. They play harder than anyone else, and are a joy to watch, even if it weren't for the loads of cash they have made me.

[ramones951]

I'm happy to see all the doubters in this thread

Mega play on Wichita, especially if the overconfidence in Kentucky drives the line down

[CarpeDime]

I've rode this team all year and will continue to ride them every game. They play harder than anyone else, and are a joy to watch, even if it weren't for the loads of cash they have made me.

the question is, what would their record have been of they were in the ACC or some other conf

[frugalgambler]

Wichita will likely be a big public play, not that it should not be. The line has already moved from -3.5 to -4.

[LT Profits]

I've rode this team all year and will continue to ride them every game. They play harder than anyone else, and are a joy to watch, even if it weren't for the loads of cash they have made me.

I don't think anyone is questioning that, nor should they. It is just that they have done it vs. weaker competition than any teams they will face the rest of the way, that's all I'm sayin'. Kentucky will be their first major test all year.

[Timmah2483]

I don't think anyone is questioning that, nor should they. It is just that they have done it vs. weaker competition than any teams they will face the rest of the way, that's all I'm sayin'. Kentucky will be their first major test all year.

Witchita State is OVER 80% ATS. thats #1 in the league. I dont think it matters the competition. Florida went 18-0 in the SEC but is 50% ATS. what happened when they entered the tourney? Witchita Cover, Florida didnt.

Also, I think @Saint Louis was a good test. Tennessee is one of the hottest tourney teams.. Both Wins, Both Covers.

[LT Profits]

Witchita State is OVER 80% ATS. thats #1 in the league. I dont think it matters the competition. Florida went 18-0 in the SEC but is 50% ATS. what happened when they entered the tourney? Witchita Cover, Florida didnt.

Also, I think @Saint Louis was a good test. Tennessee is one of the hottest tourney teams.. Both Wins, Both Covers.

Competition most certainly matters, don't kid yourself. Let's see how Wichita reacts if they are involved in a close game with a quality team late. Also, Kentucky is much better than Saint Louis, and Tennessee caught fire late in the season, they were not nearly as good when Shockers beat them by only 9 at home.

[InTheDrink]

Fixed.

If Wichita State would have lost ONE game this year, they would have been a three-seed at best. The only reason they got the one was because they forced everyone's hand by going undefeated, which is fine, they earned it because they did what they had to do, so kudos to them for that. BUT let's see what happens the rest of the way when every team they face going forward will be better than any team they beat this year.

This post is retarded

What game was even close this year?

If they lost ten games then they might not have made the tourney without a conference championship

But they're undefeated

What's your point? I don't get it

[LT Profits]

This post is retarded

What game was even close this year?

If they lost ten games then they might not have made the tourney without a conference championship

But they're undefeated

What's your point? I don't get it

They went undefeated vs. teams that they were SUPPOSED to beat, they were favored in every game this year. I am just debunking your claim that they are the most qualified one-seed, they are actually the least qualified since just one loss would gave dropped them to a three-seed at best, Conversely, if Florida or Arizona had one more loss than they did, they would still be one-seeds because of tougher schedules (Yeah I get that Florida plays in weakest major conference, but SEC still better than MVC), so those two teams are certainly more qualified one-seeds than Shockers.

[InTheDrink]

Who cares about qualifications at this point

I'm saying they are possibly the best one seed

1's are supposed to win by 20+

Only one of them did

[Timmah2483]

Competition most certainly matters, don't kid yourself. Let's see how Wichita reacts if they are involved in a close game with a quality team late. Also, Kentucky is much better than Saint Louis, and Tennessee caught fire late in the season, they were not nearly as good when Shockers beat them by only 9 at home.

Soooo................................... ...... how about the final four run, with a worse team last year?

[Timmah2483]

They went undefeated vs. teams that they were SUPPOSED to beat, they were favored in every game this year. I am just debunking your claim that they are the most qualified one-seed, they are actually the least qualified since just one loss would gave dropped them to a three-seed at best, Conversely, if Florida or Arizona had one more loss than they did, they would still be one-seeds because of tougher schedules (Yeah I get that Florida plays in weakest major conference, but SEC still better than MVC), so those two teams are certainly more qualified one-seeds than Shockers.

LOL, they werent favored in every game. Of the teams with 5 loses or less:

Cuse 28-5 (3 Dog Games)
Louisville 30-5 (0 Dog Games)
Harvard 27-4 (3 Dog Games)
Villanova 29-4 (4 Dog Games)
San Diego St 30-4 (5 Dog Games)
Arizona 31-4 (1 Dog Game)
SF Austin 32-2 (1 Dog Game -Yesterday)
Florida 33-2 (4 Dog Games)
Witchita St 35-0 (1 Dog Game)

[billysink]

You will not find the Shock out of the top 5 in any team ranking or out of the top 50 in most of the key team stats. The only Achilles heel will be their ability to shoot at a high enough percentage against an elite defensive team. Louisville is the most likely candidate to upset but they can be victim to the same argument of a weaker than elite SOS. Arizona is the true stumbling block for the Shock in the quest to the final game.

If the original argument was that Wichita St. was the best one seed it is easily defensible based on their body of work through the season and the only argument that can be made against that is the SOS. The MVC as a conference beat a real time top 25 team only twice this year and a win against then #21 Notre Dame by Indiana St or a win against then #25 Dayton by Illinois St. lend credence to that position.

Again if the original argument was that the game against Poly was in any way shape or form indicative of anything well........

Each matchup presents a new challenge and different line. Best off choose your opportunity wisely based on the matchup at hand then get caught up in spending too much time on a predisposed train of thought that one team is the best. You don't get paid for which is the best seed only for those that cover the number.

Enjoy the game.

[k13]

They'll be out tomorrow. ...how's that real?

[InTheDrink]

They'll be out tomorrow. ...how's that real?

this pretty much guarantees a final four run

not many are wrong more often than this dumbass

[LT Profits]

Who cares about qualifications at this point

I'm saying they are possibly the best one seed

1's are supposed to win by 20+

Only one of them did

But YOU said they are the most "legit" one-seed, that is what I am responding to. They are actually the least legit, they had the easiest path to their seed.

[LT Profits]

Soooo................................... ...... how about the final four run, with a worse team last year?

Totally irrelevant, welcome to 2014.

[TakingVegasMoney]

Wichita -2.5 -- that's a gift from the gods. Everyone is going to be on Kentucky... Nt this guy

[LT Profits]

LOL, they werent favored in every game. Of the teams with 5 loses or less:

Cuse 28-5 (3 Dog Games)
Louisville 30-5 (0 Dog Games)
Harvard 27-4 (3 Dog Games)
Villanova 29-4 (4 Dog Games)
San Diego St 30-4 (5 Dog Games)
Arizona 31-4 (1 Dog Game)
SF Austin 32-2 (1 Dog Game -Yesterday)
Florida 33-2 (4 Dog Games)
Witchita St 35-0 (1 Dog Game)

Forget about Austin and Harvard and all the rest of the teams you mentioned faced MUCH tougher schedules. And you are right, Wichita was a dog at Saint Louis, although that doesn't really change my point about their schedule.

[billysink]

Wichita -2.5 -- that's a gift from the gods. Everyone is going to be on Kentucky... Nt this guy

Line is short and will quickly adjust. You will see some 4's out there before tip.

[LT Profits]

You will not find the Shock out of the top 5 in any team ranking or out of the top 50 in most of the key team stats. The only Achilles heel will be their ability to shoot at a high enough percentage against an elite defensive team. Louisville is the most likely candidate to upset but they can be victim to the same argument of a weaker than elite SOS. Arizona is the true stumbling block for the Shock in the quest to the final game.

If the original argument was that Wichita St. was the best one seed it is easily defensible based on their body of work through the season and the only argument that can be made against that is the SOS. The MVC as a conference beat a real time top 25 team only twice this year and a win against then #21 Notre Dame by Indiana St or a win against then #25 Dayton by Illinois St. lend credence to that position.

Again if the original argument was that the game against Poly was in any way shape or form indicative of anything well........

Each matchup presents a new challenge and different line. Best off choose your opportunity wisely based on the matchup at hand then get caught up in spending too much time on a predisposed train of thought that one team is the best. You don't get paid for which is the best seed only for those that cover the number.

Enjoy the game.

They'll be out tomorrow. ...how's that real?

They could easily lose to Kentucky tomorrow, and saying Louisville is the most likely to "upset" them is not accurate because Louisville would be favored. More importantly, I don't expect Shockers to get by Louisville (if Cards win today), and that is IF they get by Kentucky, which will not be easy.

[billysink]

They could easily lose to Kentucky tomorrow, and saying Louisville is the most likely to "upset" them is not accurate because Louisville would be favored. More importantly, I don't expect Shockers to get by Louisville (if Cards win today), and that is IF they get by Kentucky, which will not be easy.

The Cardinal game will be a PK or Shock by 1 in my model.

[LT Profits]

The Cardinal game will be a PK or Shock by 1 in my model.

And that's fine, but line will be closer to Louisville -4 in real life so your model should love some Shockers.

[InTheDrink]

But YOU said they are the most "legit" one-seed, that is what I am responding to. They are actually the least legit, they had the easiest path to their seed.

ok mr literal

what im saying is that they could be the best #1 seed

gators would be everyone's answer and they are so phony

just curious...have you seen wich st play?

[billysink]

And that's fine, but line will be closer to Louisville -4 in real life so your model should love some Shockers.

Yes I would see some value there if that is the case.

[LT Profits]

Yes I would see some value there if that is the case.

Yeah books have already flat out said that Louisville is the number one team in the country (as a 4-seed ) on whatever algorithms they use and would be favored over any other team right now.

[InTheDrink]

Yeah books have already flat out said that Louisville is the number one team in the country (as a 4-seed ) on whatever algorithms they use and would be favored over any other team right now.

0-1 ats in the tourney and it wasnt ever close

sometimes even the books get it wrong

[billysink]

Yeah books have already flat out said that Louisville is the number one team in the country (as a 4-seed ) on whatever algorithms they use and would be favored over any other team right now.

They will quickly adjust to what the market bears. If it opens 4 it will not be available long.

Louisville is not the best team in the country in my model so I am happy to see that position taken.

Here is what I have as a pre tourney model. There is a large gap between 7-8 in my analysis leading me to believe that the champ is in this group.

This is not the only predictive I use but is a starting point before filter application

RANK	TEAMS	WINS	SOS	L10	OFLOOR	EFG%	DEFG%	DFLOOR	OR%	DR%	OAT	DAT	TOT	HA
1	Arizona (30-4)	3	6	11	17	86	1	2	29	3	18	15	191	50
2	Wichita St (33-0)	1	111	2	13	66	20	9	38	2	46	44	352	304
3	Florida (32-2)	2	40	1	40	43	24	6	36	93	77	10	372	134
4	Michigan St (26-8)	14	8	24	59	17	51	25	78	9	11	79	375	346
5	Louisville (29-5)	9	72	3	1	23	7	4	16	246	7	2	390	272
5	Villanova (28-4)	4	20	14	56	22	60	21	80	20	30	63	390	186
7	Virginia (28-6)	5	11	4	77	121	8	1	72	5	43	48	395	235

[LT Profits]

0-1 ats in the tourney and it wasnt ever close

sometimes even the books get it wrong

And they will still be in the Final Four, they were just coasting vs. a puke team. I think they explode today and wax Saint Louis by double-digits.

[LT Profits]

They will quickly adjust to what the market bears. If it opens 4 it will not be available long.

Louisville is not the best team in the country in my model so I am happy to see that position taken.

Here is what I have as a pre tourney model. There is a large gap between 7-8 in my analysis leading me to believe that the champ is in this group.

This is not the only predictive I use but is a starting point before filter application

RANK	TEAMS	WINS	SOS	L10	OFLOOR	EFG%	DEFG%	DFLOOR	OR%	DR%	OAT	DAT	TOT	HA
1	Arizona (30-4)	3	6	11	17	86	1	2	29	3	18	15	191	50
2	Wichita St (33-0)	1	111	2	13	66	20	9	38	2	46	44	352	304
3	Florida (32-2)	2	40	1	40	43	24	6	36	93	77	10	372	134
4	Michigan St (26-8)	14	8	24	59	17	51	25	78	9	11	79	375	346
5	Louisville (29-5)	9	72	3	1	23	7	4	16	246	7	2	390	272
5	Villanova (28-4)	4	20	14	56	22	60	21	80	20	30	63	390	186
7	Virginia (28-6)	5	11	4	77	121	8	1	72	5	43	48	395	235

I have Arizona beating Virginia in the final in my SBR Bracket with Louisville and Florida my other Final Four teams.

[billysink]

I have Arizona beating Virginia in the final in my SBR Bracket with Louisville and Florida my other Final Four teams.

If I was a bracket guy I would be happy in that spot. Always a crap shoot and not worth the time spent IMO but from the outside your position looks pretty good.

[k13]

this pretty much guarantees a final four run

not many are wrong more often than this dumbass

No chance they make Final Four.

[k13]

ok mr literal

what im saying is that they could be the best #1 seed

gators would be everyone's answer and they are so phony

just curious...have you seen wich st play?

Gators would rape Wichita.

Wichita would not even beat Pitt...

[cbiscuit]

And they will still be in the Final Four, they were just coasting vs. a puke team. I think they explode today and wax Saint Louis by double-digits.

Agree with Louvl today but disagree with your WichSt view. Same sched last year, F4 appearance and could very well have beat champ Louisvl, core of team comes back again with another year of experience and imo they are the ultimate 'eye test' team.