Question regarding playing over/unders

pags11 · 09-25-06, 03:05 AM

I'm not a totals player at all...have fooled around with them in the past, but never had much success...

McBa1n · 09-25-06, 03:23 AM

I think o/u are a complete sucker bet, unless you have a REAL solid opinion and reason for it (beside betting just because you are watching the game).

I'm still a sucker now and again - but there is little value in these lines unless you really find a gem you love (which is pretty rare IMO...). If you can play them better than 50%, you're twice the man I COULD be.

isetcap · 09-25-06, 05:59 AM

There is absolutely as much value, if not more value, in properly evaluating totals, especially in football. In fact I would generally declare totals to operate with more consistency than you can ever hope for versus spreads on major events.

If you genuinely feel that you have a better grasp betting on spread outcomes in football games, then you would be well served to pair your spread bets with appropriate totals bets. For example, if you feel strongly that a certain team will cover on a specific spread, then analyze how they will play the game and what factors must take place for them to cover. Once you've done that analysis, you should invariably have a strong lean as to where the total will end up if you're capable of properly assessing the number you are betting against.

Occasionally you will run into scenarios where both teams' keys to victory lead to a strong lean in one direction or the other. In these situations you are much better off staying away from the spread and evaluating the total only.

To remove totals from your arsenal of value as a bettor is a huge mistake.

Justin7 · 09-25-06, 12:23 PM

totals are no different than sides. If you do good fundamental analysis, you can beat these. They are tough to beat in the first 4 weeks or so though - there isn't much data to view.

Even after you have a feel for the teams, it's tough to hit more than 54% long term. Still though, every advantage adds up.

David · 09-25-06, 01:25 PM

Originally posted by sixersfan

Also why is the maximum wager at Pinnnacle for O/U alot less than say ATS or moneyline? Is it because the sharps don't play the O/U as much so the books aren't sure what the result will be? Hope everyone had a winning weekend!

Probably because less money is bet on totals than on sides.

RabidDog · 09-25-06, 01:26 PM

Over/Unders are more vulnerable then pointspreads.. Because they recieve less action then pointspreads then tend to be a little softer, and can offer alot of value.. I just love second half O/U for baskets and football, I've been hitting them at 57% over the last year..

Willie Bee · 09-25-06, 01:33 PM

Welcome to SBR, sixersfan

Personally, I like O/U just as much as sides in baseball. One of our mods, ganchrow, is having some nice success with the over/unders right now. You might try to follow some of his analysis to give you a better idea why they might (or might now) be a good play for a given game.

sixersfan · 09-25-06, 05:46 PM

Thanks for the replies guys. I've been pretty much 50/50 with NBA on O/U. I'm sure there would be plenty of college games where the totals are soft.

jjgold · 09-25-06, 06:43 PM

I always thought totals were for suckers too, only a select few can beat them.

You cannot predict game flow the majority of the time

isetcap · 09-25-06, 07:10 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

I always thought totals were for suckers too, only a select few can beat them.

You cannot predict game flow the majority of the time

Originally posted by jjgold

Guys playing totals on a daily basis uses have an ege.

JJ, you need to take your lithium.

sixersfan · 09-25-06, 07:36 PM

Have been considering betting against a big total moverment.
e.g. (NBA) line opens at 200 then down to 196 then play the over.
Although this might only happen 5-10 times a week.

Has any one done any research regarding this? There are some big moves in college bball and football.

Brooks · 09-26-06, 12:43 AM

Originally posted by sixersfan

Have been considering betting against a big total moverment.
e.g. (NBA) line opens at 200 then down to 196 then play the over.
Although this might only happen 5-10 times a week.

Has any one done any research regarding this? There are some big moves in college bball and football.

i dont know why this post made me think of brian mac but he once gave out an open ender on the under in a houston rockets game. the total opened at 190 and got steamed down to 183. he releases the game at under 183.5 and it comes in at 185. that guy is a real jackass.