Buying Points will lose you profit in the long run!

[frostno98]

Just did an observation on my Make it or Break season thread on all of my posted picks, to see if buying point will improve my overall profit margin. My current NCAAB posted record is (99-81-6). Buying 2 points at -150 would add my 6 push to my 99 wins making it 105. While scouring through my thread, I also found 8 picked losers, where +2 added point would make them winners. By adding points, my new record would be (113-73) 60%.

(113-73) 60% Buying 2 Points at -150
113 wins at -150 for $100=$11,300 Winnings
73 Losses at -150 for $100=$10950 Losing
Total Profit=$350 Winnings after adjustment


(99-81-6) 55% Original record at -110
99 wins at -110 for $100=$9900 Winnings
81 losses at -110 for $100=$8100 Losing
Total Profit=$1800 Winnings after adjustment

Summary:
While buying points would make your overall record look better, in the long run you will profit less. If you like a pick, just go with it as is. Gambling always involves risk. Teasing or buying is a good way of reassuring yourself your bet might win, but at the end of the day your probably not going to need

[onthewhat]

The books wouldn't allow you to buy points if they didn't have the edge...

[LT Profits]

The only exception is books that allow you to buy 3 points at -170, as that is actually +EV off of certain numbers.

[LT Profits]

Not that I do it personally, but Justin mentioned it somewhere.

[fearless]

The books wouldn't allow you to buy points if they didn't have the edge...

Many books won't you let you buy below -3 in football, that gives you the advantage.

[JBC77]

Good post frostno, very well articulated. I buy points frequently in the NBA and often wondered if it was worth the extra juice. On the other hand buying points has saved me twice in the course of the last week. I would have went 6-4 instead of 8-2 for my last ten. I think selective point buying can still be advantageous in certain spots.......but I get exactly what your saying.

[Shortstop]

My thought has always been that if you feel the need to buy points, why not just bet the other side?

[u21c3f6]

Just did an observation on my Make it or Break season thread on all of my posted picks, to see if buying point will improve my overall profit margin. My current NCAAB posted record is (99-81-6). Buying 2 points at -150 would add my 6 push to my 99 wins making it 105. While scouring through my thread, I also found 8 picked losers, where +2 added point would make them winners. By adding points, my new record would be (113-73) 60%.

(113-73) 60% Buying 2 Points at -150
113 wins at -150 for $100=$11,300 Winnings
73 Losses at -150 for $100=$10950 Losing
Total Profit=$350 Winnings after adjustment


(99-81-6) 55% Original record at -110
99 wins at -110 for $100=$9900 Winnings
81 losses at -110 for $100=$8100 Losing
Total Profit=$1800 Winnings after adjustment

Summary:
While buying points would make your overall record look better, in the long run you will profit less. If you like a pick, just go with it as is. Gambling always involves risk. Teasing or buying is a good way of reassuring yourself your bet might win, but at the end of the day your probably not going to need

The point is still valid but your 81 losses should be $8910 for a total profit of $990. I assume the plus 2 did not give you any new pushes.

Joe.