Any significance of beating first half closers in NBA?

[easyliving]

I have started tracking my 1h plays in NBA compared to Pinny closers over the past month and most of the time I am getting a better # than the closing line, meaning if I take under 99.5 the line closes at 99 or if I take +6 line closes +5.5 etc. My sample size is just over 100 bets at the point but at this point I am confident I can keep it going and will continue to beat the closing lines. I am hitting just over 54% at this point on these wagers alone, but my sample size is simply too small. Are Pinnacle's first half lines as sharp as their lines in other sports and can I expect my profits to continue longterm?

[downsouth]

Generally beating the closing line will correlate with winning. It will not be as significant on the totals but is a pretty significant amount getting a .5 point on half wagers for sides. Continue tracking, find an average CLV for sides and totals over a meaningful sample size and then determine if your generally beating the close. If you are odds are you will also be hitting a profitable win rate.

Good luck

[gui_m_p]

I think you can expect a long term profit. A 0.5 point in basketball generally represents a difference of 0.06 in decimal odds (not with totals). So think that, if you bet +6 and line closes +5.5, you basically bet +5.5 with (almost) +odds. This probably will be enough to win in long haul.

Moreover, I don't think that firts half lines are less sharper than full game. If I'm right a move in one come along with the other.

[deltgen]

easyliving--I want to keep track of this thread, but I'm curious about something. You say that at about 100 bets that your sample size is too small, which I agree with, but what would be considered an acceptable and meaningful sample size for something like this?

[gui_m_p]

I don't think the sample is that small. The skill of a handicapper is not susceptible to variance like a game outcome. I use to track the CLV of people I intend to follow and, for what I see, the CLV is relatively stable. Of course a grater sample is better, but with 100 plays you can have a good idea of what you are capable of.