You would think a guy like Santoro would play more poker...

donjuan · 03-03-09, 02:11 PM

Sharp with the numbers and odds, would
always make the right math decision.

He might be a good fit for the game.

Game theory is well beyond Nicky's capabilities.

Nicky Santoro · 03-03-09, 02:14 PM

slicker, i swear to god, i have been told this by a thousand people in my life that i am crazy not to play poker.. i do know almost every probability of most situations during a hand and the odds of a guy having three of a kind to beat me.. etc... etc... but i tried poker a few times and i hate it with a passion.. slicker, i really have no patience for the game.. you know, you gotta love something you do a lot and have the passion for it, or you will NOT excel at it, and poker is something i just dont have the patience for. i nver like the game, and never will. just like horses, there is a track around the corner from me, a major track and i have only been there like 2 times. i hate horses too..

i like blackjack too, and i even mastered the counting cards and of course i know basic strategy, but i hate the game after 2 hrs. it gets exhausting and repetitive. no fun in the game. same shit all day.. cant take it.

but sports i love and always have since i was a kid, and love to look at a screen full of #'s. it makes me hard.

SamsNCharge99 · 03-03-09, 02:15 PM

I play Poker....numbers isn't as big of a part as you might think, I can read players like it's my job....I can also bluff anyone

knowing numbers is good, but it won't make you a good player

VegasDave · 03-03-09, 02:16 PM

Originally posted by SamsNCharge99

I play Poker....numbers isn't as big of a part as you might think, I can read players like it's my job....I can also bluff anyone

knowing numbers is good, but it won't make you a good player

Reading players and knowing when to bluff is even better when you actually know the numbers in the situation too.

MonkeyF0cker · 03-03-09, 02:24 PM

How would you calculate the odds of someone holding a pocket pair flopping a set then, Nicky? Let's see if you can solve a very simple probability situation... Show the steps. Or are you completely full of shit (as usual)?

SamsNCharge99 · 03-03-09, 02:35 PM

Originally posted by VegasDave

Reading players and knowing when to bluff is even better when you actually know the numbers in the situation too.

agreed...but Math is the least of my worried when sitting down at a table

it's just a helpful tool

Nicky Santoro · 03-03-09, 02:42 PM

The odds of flopping a set with a pocket pair are 7 to 1..

i am not answering anymore of your questions, monkey. i am NOT a poker player and i dont even know half the game.. now take a hike..

slicker, when you make threads like this, the bashers come out 1 by 1.. i predicted donny juan would come out, and he didnt' waste any time, and monkeyfocker was just too easy.. anytime he sees shit like this, he jumps in.. it's always the same gang..

who's next? please make sure you grab a # next time..

MonkeyF0cker · 03-03-09, 02:44 PM

Wrong. You wanna try again?

VegasDave · 03-03-09, 02:44 PM

Originally posted by SamsNCharge99

agreed...but Math is the least of my worried when sitting down at a table

it's just a helpful tool

You have it mixed up... but by all means, have fun

SamsNCharge99 · 03-03-09, 02:45 PM

I'm not saying shit about you Nicky.....if that was intended to me

my point is that there;s more to poker than math

VD....I do what works for me and I guarantee I can beat most people here playing poker than using math

Nicky Santoro · 03-03-09, 02:46 PM

Originally posted by MonkeyF0cker

Wrong. You wanna try again?

you wanna bet? i can look it up if you want..

pavyracer · 03-03-09, 02:47 PM

My best win in poker was when I went to the final 2 table and I had only 100 chips and my opponent had 900 chips and I beat him. I can never forget that day.

MonkeyF0cker · 03-03-09, 02:48 PM

I can tell you how to calculate it, genius, and it's not 7:1. Hint: Probability of the union of independent events. Certainly a "numbers man" such as you would know this, right?

Fiasco · 03-03-09, 02:53 PM

math is huge in being a consistently winning player...

you can read any hand in the world but if you make -ev decisions (because you don't know your true odds of hitting then you won't win in the long run...)

it's all about understanding odds and basing your bets off of these odds... if you put your opponent on the flush draw then you want to make sure you bet enough that he is -ev calling you down... and if you don't understand the odds then when you have a draw you're unaware of what you should be flatting with...

reading people is clearly the "cool" way to play poker but without math there is no possible way you will truly beat the game long run...

all the pros understand odds (even the ones that say they don't understand the basics of knowing when to draw, and how to bet...)

Nicky Santoro · 03-03-09, 02:54 PM

why do you have to be such a smartass all the time for monkey? does it make you feel better about yourself? you always do this everytime, and from what i see, it's not just me, it's everyone else here. i thought it was just me, but it's not.. man, you never change..

the odds are 7 to 1.. i know this for sure.

VegasDave · 03-03-09, 02:54 PM

Originally posted by SamsNCharge99

I'm not saying shit about you Nicky.....if that was intended to me

my point is that there;s more to poker than math

VD....I do what works for me and I guarantee I can beat most people here playing poker than using math

There is a LOT more to poker than math... and there is no right or wrong way to play, either.

I'm just saying, if you want to win long term, you need to understand the math in key situations... you need to understand pot odds. If you are so good at reading your opponent, it would be beneficial to know not only what his hand is, but what the odds of him improving that hand are, etc.

If you have a low flush draw and someone bets a large amount, you have to know what the odds of hitting your flush are and what the pot odds you are receiving are. If you don't, then even if you are excellent at reading people and winning money, you aren't maximizing your potential profits when you make the wrong mathematical move.

VegasDave · 03-03-09, 02:54 PM

Well said Fiasco as I was typing

MonkeyF0cker · 03-03-09, 02:56 PM

C'mon, Nicky. This is elementary probability. Teach these young kids how it's calculated. Or are you really a fraud and I'll have to do it for you?

Nicky Santoro · 03-03-09, 02:57 PM

if i am wrong, then show me how it's not 7 to 1..

It is 7 to 1..

MonkeyF0cker · 03-03-09, 03:01 PM

Does a "numbers man" round probability and round it the wrong way now, Nicky? There is no need to look it up. It's a SIMPLE probability caculation. The reason I come in here is because you don't know the first fvckin thing about probability or numbers and that's clear to anyone with half a brain and I'm tired of hearing about your supposed "skills." Now prove me wrong. Here's your chance.

Nicky Santoro · 03-03-09, 03:02 PM

you wanna bet then that i am right? come on, lets bet..

Nicky Santoro · 03-03-09, 03:04 PM

how aobut this, if i am right, you are NOT allowed to ever make any reference about me ever again in this forum.. fair? hurry because i gotta step out and do a few things..

poker_dummy101 · 03-03-09, 03:10 PM

closer to 8:1

SlickFazzer · 03-03-09, 03:13 PM

7.5 to 1 by the chart i use.

I dont know how to mathematically calculate it, thats what the chart is for.

Nicky Santoro · 03-03-09, 03:14 PM

i rounded it off to 7 to 1.. i bet alot of poker sites will do the same as me and round it off to 7 to 1..

i gotta run..

MonkeyF0cker · 03-03-09, 03:15 PM

You use the law of the union of independent events to calculate the probability of flopping a set since there are 3 cards (events) on the flop. Basically, you subtract the product of the inverse odds from 1. Since there are two "outs" remaining in the deck (or are unknown) and there are 50 cards remaining, the inverse odds of the first card on the flop is 48/50. On the second card to flop, there is one less card in the deck. Thus, 47/49 and 46/48 are the inverse odds of the second and third cards to flop. You multiply these three values and subtract them from 1. So the odds are:

1 - [(48/50)*(47/49)*(46/48)]

This equals an 11.755102% chance and a ratio of 7.51:1.

Now, do you still wanna bet, Nicky?

durito · 03-03-09, 03:17 PM

Originally posted by Nicky Santoro

slicker, when you make threads like this, the bashers come out 1 by 1.. i predicted donny juan would come out, and he didnt' waste any time, and monkeyfocker was just too easy.. anytime he sees shit like this, he jumps in.. it's always the same gang..

who's next? please make sure you grab a # next time..

hi nicky

poker_dummy101 · 03-03-09, 03:18 PM

I was just rouding to 8..if you add quads into that then im pretty sure you need to add about .24 to .25%

yisman · 03-03-09, 03:19 PM

Don't play cards if there's a casino or sportsbook involved.

I only do it with people I know and not that often, either, because cards are boring.

Originally posted by SamsNCharge99

VD....I do what works for me and I guarantee I can beat most people here playing poker than using math

I say you're not as good at poker as you say you are.

MonkeyF0cker · 03-03-09, 03:19 PM

Originally posted by Nicky Santoro

i rounded it off to 7 to 1.. i bet alot of poker sites will do the same as me and round it off to 7 to 1..

i gotta run..

As I asked earlier, Nicky, do "numbers guys" often round the wrong way? Of course you have to run, idiot. Get a clue. Or stop pretending to have one. The choice is yours. But you're not having both on my watch.

Bread · 03-03-09, 03:19 PM

I'm usually plastered when I play poker and never catch anything on the flop.

I'm a real winner.

MonkeyF0cker · 03-03-09, 04:54 PM

There is actually a pretty important lesson here other than me simply trashing Nicky. It is absolutely essential that you know the odds in poker. If you take this situation where Nicky thinks the odds are 7:1 rather than 7.51:1, you can turn a situation into -EV play by incorrectly calculating your pot odds. While the probability of flopping a set here does not take into account the implied odds, if you are in a situation where you are calling off on 7:1's and need to be getting 7.51:1, you are losing money long term. If the pot size is $560, this could be the difference of only a handful of dollars that makes the play -EV. It makes a $74-$80 call seem +EV but puts you in the hole long term. This is absolutely essential knowledge if you want to beat the game. Make no doubt about it.