Vegas Dave's MLB Season Previews: The New York Yankees

[VegasDave]

Vegas Dave's MLB Season Previews: The New York Yankees

In what should be no surprise to anyone in the sports world, the New York Yankees find themselves the favorite to win it all heading into the new season. But will this be the year that they break the slump?

Projected Lineup and Rotation (per www.cbssports.com)

Lineup:

1. Johnny Damon (LF)
2. Derek Jeter (SS)
3. Mark Teixeira (1B)
4. Alex Rodriguez (3B)
5. Jorge Posada (C)
6. Hideki Matsui (DH)
7. Xavier Nady (RF)
8. Robinson Cano (2B)
9. Melky Cabrera (CF)

*Nick Swisher will alternate in as well.

Rotation:

1. CC Sabathia
2. A.J Burnett
3. Chien-Ming Wang
4. Andy Pettitte
5. Joba Chamberlain

A few names change here and there, but this year’s Yankee lineup has the exact same effect on me that it does every year; it makes my jaw drop to the floor in awe. The term “not fair” comes to mind. Guys like Xavier Nady and Nick Swisher, heart of the order type of guys for the Pittsburgh Pirates and Chicago White Sox respectively, now find themselves fighting for a spot in the bottom of this order. If Posada and Matsui can stay healthy, they round out a downright lethal top 6, and even if they can’t, the Yankees will certainly have options to fill those holes. I don’t really need to go into much detail on this offense, do I? It speaks for itself.

The issue for the Yankees has not been the lineup for quite some time. Yes it will have the occasional dry spell like any other team, sometimes in untimely places such as the playoffs, but you can’t really assemble much better of a lineup then the one the New York Yankees have. The focus, and the make or break aspect to the Yankees season, is once again the success of the starting pitching.

(Wait a second Dave! You can’t just move on to talking about pitching without weighing in on the Alex Rodriguez scandal!)



Right, of course. Because you really need another take on this? I’m going to spare you the page long babble for two reasons.
1. Nothing I say, no opinion I could possibly have, could be anything that you haven’t already read or heard, seeing as everyone and their uncle has already beaten the topic to death.
2. He is Alex Rodriguez. He is the best hitter of this generation. He lives and breathes controversy and media scrutiny. He will not be adversely affected by all this, and if he stays healthy, he will put up the same superhuman numbers he has every other year in his incredible career.

So now that we’ve got that out of the way, can we move on to pitching?

In CC Sabathia, the Yankees finally have the true ace they have been lacking over the last few years. They finally have a guy that they can send to the mound against the other team’s best and expect a win every time. No slight on Mike Mussina or Chien-Ming Wang or Kevin Brown (okay, maybe a bit of a slight on Kevin Brown), these aren’t the guys you want to be sending to the mound in a game 1 or a game 7 against your opponents ace. Even though Sabathia’s numbers will very likely take a dip from his stint with the Brewers, I still have little doubt that he can be counted on in key spots for the entire season if healthy.

But this is where the “sure thing” list ends. In Burnett you have a dynamic pitcher that can be flat out overpowering, but the injury risk is always there. Burnett is no stranger to the disabled list, Pitching over 175 innings only 3 times in his 10 season career. Last season went without any problems as he logged 221.1 innings; but if he manages to pitch 200 innings this season, it will be the first time ever in his career that he has done so in back to back seasons.

Chien-Ming Wang has been extremely consistent in his time with the Yankees and gives them a chance to win just about every time he hits the mound with his excellent sinker ball. But after missing most of last year with a foot injury, it isn’t a sure thing that the injury won’t linger, or that it won’t have any mental effects on the mound.

Andy Pettitte is still a serviceable option, but last year’s 4.54 ERA (his 3rd straight year with an ERA over 4.00) isn’t going to strike fear into opposing batters, and at 36 (turning 37 in June) he isn’t a likely candidate to show much improvement this year. Last season he pitched through a sore shoulder; how much longer can his body and his arm hold up?

Which brings us to the young guys. Joba Chamberlain emerged as an elite set-up man before making the switch to starting pitcher, where he pitched very well. But is he ready for a fulltime spot? Last year the Yankees leaned too heavily on a pair of young arms in Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy to disastrous results. Chamberlain seems ready to be a star, but you can’t just pencil him in as an ace until he’s proven he can be one over the course of a season. And when (not if, when) the injury bug starts plaguing the middle of the rotation, will Phil Hughes be ready to start meeting his potential?



I actually believe that Phil Hughes could potentially have a big year this year. The kid has way too much talent to be held down for long, and it wouldn’t be the first time in baseball history that a young talented pitcher got off to a rough start in the big leagues and then turned things around.

The point of bringing up all these questions in the Yankees rotation isn’t to try and convince you that this isn’t the team to beat, because it most certainly is. The batting order is lethal, and this rotation as well as a solid bullpen led by Mariano Rivera and Damaso Marte should do just fine in giving this offense a chance to win night in and night out.

What it should convince you of is to try to stay away from the futures on this team. The Greek (www.thegreek.com) has the Yankees going off at +360 to win it all and the over/under on regular season wins is set at 97.5 (Over +105, Under -125). The question marks in the rotation as well as the injury risks across the board, the rigors of a 162 game season in arguably the toughest division in baseball, followed by a best-of-5 series in the playoffs where a few bounces can decide your season make it awfully hard for me to find value in the +360 to win it all. These same factors make it hard for me to consider the over 97.5 wins, too, as a lot of things have to fall just right to win 98 games in this league. This team is plenty good enough though, which dissuades me from taking the under as well; but if I had to make a play, the under would be the side I’d take.

On the spot prediction: 96 to 100 wins, win the AL East.

- Vegas Dave

[ryanXL977]

tb wins east
book it
they have heart and chemistry and nothing is more important on baseball than chemistry
nothing
yanks have none

[VegasDave]

tb wins east
book it
they have heart and chemistry and nothing is more important on baseball than chemistry
nothing
yanks have none

I am one of the school of thought that the Rays will not have a big drop off either, ryan... but I think the Yanks will edge them out this year.

[blackbart]

spot on, could only add some holes defensively may cost them in the end

[ryanXL977]

yanks may have the worst defense in the majors up the middle, from catcher, ss, and 2b. they have no outfield whatsoever. damon has no arm and cant move like he used to, nady isnt very good either, and melky is the only plus defender they have. jeter is garbage, cano is too. arod is average at best defensivle (id take inge, crede, chavez, rolen, longoria, young, more,etc just in the al, over him defensively),

the yanks have one good defender in the infield, teixera
thats it

defense matters people

[VegasDave]

Tossed in a quick video

You may not be wrong ryan... especially with a sinkerballer like Wang who doesn't get many strikeouts, you need to be making plays in the infield.

[SBR Lou]

spot on, could only add some holes defensively may cost them in the end

This team has more defense this year the New England Patriots of the past. I think Dave's season wins projection is right on, but 105 games is probably more likely.

[tacomax]

but 105 games is probably more likely.

You think the Greek's line is off by 7.5?

Good write up though, VD. Red Sox next, please.

[VegasDave]

You think the Greek's line is off by 7.5?

Good write up though, VD. Red Sox next, please.

Thanks tacomax. Going division by division, so definitely the Red Sox or Rays up next.

[SBR Lou]

You think the Greek's line is off by 7.5?

No, I'm sure the line is weighted properly as of now, but if the Yankees do end up sniffing 100 games and not having a collapse or letdown year, then with one extra mini-hot streak along the way they could easily go 7.5 games over. Just like with an injury, or bad run they could end up falling short of Greek's total by 7.5.

[Willie Bee]

You think the Greek's line is off by 7.5?

Lou wears his Bronx Blinders most of the time, taco. Ballsy pick if they get to 105 or better, might go put some on the Over 97½ just to jinx him.

Agree with Dave about the lineup's potential, believe Wang will be ok physically which will be a huge help to their rotation. The guy that I'm most worried about coming back from injury however is Posada. If he can't catch, if his shoulder is still bum, they might be screwed at times having either him or Matsui on their bench, or they lose Damon (which might not be all that bad if Matsui is healthy enough to play left).

Also agree with RyanXL about them being a poor defensive team -- some of that can be helped if Posada is truly back. But the addition of Teixeira will also help their infield a lot, especially the left side. New York hasn't had a decent 1B in the field really since Tino, who was really smart and didn't make the bonehead error but was still very short on any range, quickness in the field. Forget Mientkiewicz as well; he didn't play enough and was overrated in my opinion defensively. You have to go back to Don Mattingly since Yankees fans have seen the overall player in the field and at the plate as Teixeira is.

I'll have to remember this thread when I get around to my Yankees write-up

[tacomax]

I'll have to remember this thread when I get around to my Yankees write-up

No copying, please.

Dave - you have got to watch this one. Trust me.

[VegasDave]

No copying, please.

Dave - you have got to watch this one. Trust me.

Haha, I was going to start with the Angels but figured I might get accused of copying, so I figured I'd start with a team Willie hasn't done

[element1286]

Sox will win that division. I think the Rays drop off some, they got real lucky last year with injuries, and it is different when there are expectations to win.

[VegasDave]

Sox will win that division. I think the Rays drop off some, they got real lucky last year with injuries, and it is different when there are expectations to win.

The more I look at all 3 of these teams, the more I can make a strong case for all 3 of them. It really should be a great race.

[rjt721]

No mention of Kei Igawa?

Yanks obviously have the potential to be really good. Couple noticeable holes, though -- the first being the state of the outfield. Probably the worst OF in the division. Melky's had ample opportunity to prove he's an everyday player. Hasn't happened. And if they're really foolish enough to give Brett Gardner 500 ABs, well, that will be a disaster (I hope it happens). Also, as has been mentioned already, Damon throws like Teela.

Other weakness would be the bullpen leading up to Rivera. First full season for the likes of Veras and Ramirez. I actually always liked Bruney's potential, but the lack of control has been his undoing. I almost question whether the Yanks would be better served to plug Joba back into the pen to dominate the 8th before handing the ball to Mo. Makes it a 7 inning game, and the Yanks, or any other team for that matter, have no one else who can replicate Joba's impact as a reliever. True, if NYY can get 180-200 innings from Joba as a starter, he's probably more valuable in that role. But because his durability is a question mark, the fact he's never come close to handling that type of workload in the past, and because the Yanks have starting pitching depth, inserting Hughes into the No. 5 slot in the rotation, with Joba back in the pen, is tempting.

[Immortality]

Also, as has been mentioned already, Damon throws like Teela.

Comparing Damon's arm to a woman is an insult to the woman.

[InTheHole]

Thanks for the write-up,,,takes alot of time to create something worthy of posting and reading

[rjt721]

Comparing Damon's arm to a woman is an insult to the woman.

Teela has a penis.

That was a joke. Sorry, Teela.

[Tsoprano]

Yankees win it all this year

And yes that is my bias yankee-fan attitude taking over this post.

[Teela]

Damon throws like Teela.

Beatings.

[VegasDave]

No mention of Kei Igawa?

Yanks obviously have the potential to be really good. Couple noticeable holes, though -- the first being the state of the outfield. Probably the worst OF in the division. Melky's had ample opportunity to prove he's an everyday player. Hasn't happened. And if they're really foolish enough to give Brett Gardner 500 ABs, well, that will be a disaster (I hope it happens). Also, as has been mentioned already, Damon throws like Teela.

Other weakness would be the bullpen leading up to Rivera. First full season for the likes of Veras and Ramirez. I actually always liked Bruney's potential, but the lack of control has been his undoing. I almost question whether the Yanks would be better served to plug Joba back into the pen to dominate the 8th before handing the ball to Mo. Makes it a 7 inning game, and the Yanks, or any other team for that matter, have no one else who can replicate Joba's impact as a reliever. True, if NYY can get 180-200 innings from Joba as a starter, he's probably more valuable in that role. But because his durability is a question mark, the fact he's never come close to handling that type of workload in the past, and because the Yanks have starting pitching depth, inserting Hughes into the No. 5 slot in the rotation, with Joba back in the pen, is tempting.

Great observations.

The Yankees are more concerned with image then doing "the right thing" sometimes... Joba as a starter gets more highlight reels on ESPN and more fans tuning in. But I don't completely disagree with you; having a near-perfect set-up man to eventually fill the enormous shoes Rivera left behind is definitely tempting.

Long term though, he could end up being a great SP, too; and if Hughes ends up taking the leap, that is a great set of young arms on a team often plagued with pitching issues.

Both sides to the argument definitely have weight... and hindsight will be 20/20 to the media, no question.

[daggerkobe]

Surprised that VD didn't include concession stand reviews.

[VegasDave]

Surprised that VD didn't include concession stand reviews.

I was going to, but since I'm on a diet, it just hurt too much to type

[element1286]

No mention of Kei Igawa?

Yanks obviously have the potential to be really good. Couple noticeable holes, though -- the first being the state of the outfield. Probably the worst OF in the division. Melky's had ample opportunity to prove he's an everyday player. Hasn't happened. And if they're really foolish enough to give Brett Gardner 500 ABs, well, that will be a disaster (I hope it happens). Also, as has been mentioned already, Damon throws like Teela.

Other weakness would be the bullpen leading up to Rivera. First full season for the likes of Veras and Ramirez. I actually always liked Bruney's potential, but the lack of control has been his undoing. I almost question whether the Yanks would be better served to plug Joba back into the pen to dominate the 8th before handing the ball to Mo. Makes it a 7 inning game, and the Yanks, or any other team for that matter, have no one else who can replicate Joba's impact as a reliever. True, if NYY can get 180-200 innings from Joba as a starter, he's probably more valuable in that role. But because his durability is a question mark, the fact he's never come close to handling that type of workload in the past, and because the Yanks have starting pitching depth, inserting Hughes into the No. 5 slot in the rotation, with Joba back in the pen, is tempting.

I'd make sure that Joba can't start before I would ever think about pitching him out of the bullpen. A good 150 innings from the rotation is more important than a great 60 innings from the bullpen. His talents would be wasted pitching one inning a night.

[VegasDave]

I'd make sure that Joba can't start before I would ever think about pitching him out of the bullpen. A good 150 innings from the rotation is more important than a great 60 innings from the bullpen. His talents would be wasted pitching one inning a night.

It is a really tough debate, as you can't really put a set value on a solid bullpen guy. If the bullpen ends up blowing leads left and right this year, you could easily argue he could have been more valuable in the pen.

But I'm with you; they have to at least give him a chance at SP.

[fiveteamer]

go easy on the gel guy.

[rjt721]

This team has more defense this year the New England Patriots of the past. I think Dave's season wins projection is right on, but 105 games is probably more likely.

They will likely have to beat the Red Sox at least once this season if they're to even sniff 105 wins. 0-5 so far. But don't worry - Yanks have 13 more opportunities against Boston. 2-16 or so seems realistic.