Spring Training Friday Card

SlickFazzer · 02-27-09, 08:36 AM

youhavetobeshitting me.

pat venditto · 02-27-09, 08:38 AM

No.

Fiasco · 02-27-09, 08:42 AM

braves roll 7-4 today

MonkeyF0cker · 02-27-09, 08:46 AM

Who's pitching the 3rd inning for the Pirates, Fiasco?

MonkeyF0cker · 02-27-09, 08:49 AM

And who's batting in the 6 hole for the Braves in the 7th?

pat venditto · 02-27-09, 08:51 AM

I know right guy is trying to predict shit perfectly no need. I have not read one thing about baseball season theres no need for stats and lineups its quite simple.

MonkeyF0cker · 02-27-09, 08:53 AM

No? Flip a coin and hope?

pat venditto · 02-27-09, 09:03 AM

No thats not the solution either.

JBC77 · 02-27-09, 09:04 AM

Good luck Ven-Diddy-Yo.

pat venditto · 02-27-09, 09:06 AM

Don't need luck for long term but thanks for the gesture.

MonkeyF0cker · 02-27-09, 09:07 AM

What's the solution then?

fearless · 02-27-09, 09:19 AM

Originally posted by MonkeyF0cker

What's the solution then?

I'll PM you my strategy.

pat venditto · 02-27-09, 09:22 AM

moneyfocker listening to fearless is as good as sticking your head in a toilet bowl full of diareah.

fearless · 02-27-09, 09:27 AM

Originally posted by pat venditto

moneyfocker listening to fearless is as good as sticking your head in a toilet bowl full of diareah.

Originally posted by pat venditto

Trends do not matter thats why books offer show them to you get a clue.

Originally posted by fearless

I cannot believe this statement. curious bases his whole strategy on trends and he's a winner. His record is proof that following trends works.

Please reply to this. You ignored it in the other thread. You can claim trends don't matter but you can't argue with the results curious gets.

MonkeyF0cker · 02-27-09, 09:29 AM

If you're trying to fade the public pat, you are betting far too early...

MonkeyF0cker · 02-27-09, 09:34 AM

The difference is that curious uses short term trends, fearless. He uses 10-game trends rather than two season trends. I don't particularly agree with his system, however. He never takes into account the teams' schedule, injuries, trades, etc.

fearless · 02-27-09, 09:37 AM

Originally posted by MonkeyF0cker

The difference is that curious uses short term trends, fearless. He uses 10-game trends rather than two season trends. I don't particularly agree with his system, however. He never takes into account the teams' schedule, injuries, trades, etc.

Pat wants to claim that trends are meaningless but you've got a guy consistently winning using nothing but trends.

You can argue with the philosophy but not the results. Curious is proof that using trends for betting works.

pat venditto · 02-27-09, 09:38 AM

Trends are meaningless. And My strategy is to not only fade the public. A little more complex.

MonkeyF0cker · 02-27-09, 09:39 AM

He only claims to hit 70%. He doesn't claim to be profitable. The problem is that he only ML's favorites. If he's betting -900 ML's and hitting 70%, he's losing money.

pat venditto · 02-27-09, 09:39 AM

Why can't you people understand winning long term and winning short term. Any idiot can win for a little while. Doesn't mean he has a consistent model thats going to help him continue to win.

MonkeyF0cker · 02-27-09, 09:43 AM

I think you mean system, pat. Models are quite a bit more complex than that.

pat venditto · 02-27-09, 09:45 AM

Whatever. Point is many books show trends for a reason. Just like the roulette display screen they have no bearing on the next result.

fearless · 02-27-09, 09:46 AM

Who will last longer in sports betting?

curious -5000
pat venditto +4000

I've got to adjust the line because venditto is younger and in better health.

venditto goes on ignore for good now.

daggerkobe · 02-27-09, 09:52 AM

patty giving out gambling advice is like Brent Crude giving advice on dieting.

MonkeyF0cker · 02-27-09, 09:53 AM

Some trends are meaningful. If a guy was battling an injury earlier in the season and his numbers were lagging, his season totals are probably less significant than his recent performance. There are many other examples of this, such as trades, schedule, weather, etc. This is one of the reasons many incorporate weighted statistics into their models rather than purely seasonal stats. They are generally more predicative.

pat venditto · 02-27-09, 09:55 AM

Like i said judge me based when i hit 1000 plays on ss . Until then go suck on a lemon.

fearless · 02-27-09, 09:59 AM

Originally posted by MonkeyF0cker

Some trends are meaningful. If a guy was battling an injury earlier in the season and his numbers were lagging, his season totals are probably less significant than his recent performance. There are many other examples of this, such as trades, schedule, weather, etc. This is one of the reasons many incorporate weighted statistics into their models rather than purely seasonal stats. They are generally more predicative.

Here's an example of how trends matter (rightfully so). An unknown rookie starts out as a dog every game for his first couple of starts because people's expectations are low. When he's 7-1 with a 1.5 ERA then he'll quickly become a -200 favorite or so every time out. Why? It's all trends. This will happen to any team/pitcher that starts hot, all of it is based on trends.

MonkeyF0cker · 02-27-09, 10:10 AM

That's a pretty extreme example, fearless. He would be fairly well known (by sharps at least) if he were capable of putting up numbers like that. Otherwise, there is a pretty high probability that he is overperforming. Then the value lies in the opposition. It also doesn't take into account the teams he's faced and the team he is about to face, whether the team he is facing hits well against lefties/righties or hits his particular pitches well, whether he was pitching in pitcher's ballparks, etc. Trends alone can be rather dangerous.

Fiasco · 02-27-09, 10:20 AM

Kenshin Kawakami

first chance to impress...

and lets not forget that the pirates are 2-0 and the braves have clearly come out slow in their first two games...

it's practically logic,

clearly I wasn't stating the braves would win because it is a smart bet... betting on spring training is hardly a smart bet... but as a fan I think I have the right to give a score...

haven't bet any spring break games myself...

7-4 though is my prediction. clearly I'm 1-1 this spring training with my predictions about the braves and whatever their w-l total is at the end of spring training will be my record...

I appreciate the seriousness though...

Fiasco · 02-27-09, 10:23 AM

and trends are very helpful in giving certain scenarios that the team has faced in the past (I only look at recent trends and those with the same starting line-ups and what not)...

If I cap a game favoring one team but the trends are strongly against them then I lay off the game or even switch sides...

perfect example of this was N texas +2.5 last night... I capped it at N texas +5.5 but because of trends went ahead and backed the +2.5 and they lead the whole game and won by like 11 or so...

now a team that is 12-1 on a friday night when they're mother cooked spaghetti for the team for lunch doesn't really tell me much...

MonkeyF0cker · 02-27-09, 10:39 AM

Originally posted by daggerkobe

patty giving out gambling advice is like Brent Crude giving advice on dieting.

I give him credit. At least he's trying to learn. Unlike most of the posters here...

daggerkobe · 02-27-09, 10:54 AM

Uh, this is patty he never learns a thing.

Not to mention his philosophy changes on a weekly basis.

Some of his moronic schemes the past year:

1. Bet only once a month..... FAILED
2. Bet only -500 ML & up..... FAILED
3. Bet 100 games a day....... FAILED
4. Go all-in on Lions ML....... FAILED

patty doesnt bet he does this for attention only.

MonkeyF0cker · 02-27-09, 11:05 AM

Not even the best handicappers get it right the first time. Not even close...

onthewhat · 02-27-09, 12:02 PM

Venditto has done this 20 times. He will be all in within a week.