When to think about hedging?

**VegasInsider** · 01-03-14, 01:13 AM

Originally posted by gcd8

u know what u should do from now until the fsu game is try to put in a parlay with a bunch of dogs and have the last leg fsu money line and then u could risk alot less and if u are able get all these sick underdogs u shouldn't have a problem putting something together where last leg fsu -260 still pays like 10k that way u have either a 10k win with fsu or alot more with auburn

That sounds good on paper but he literally is in the last leg of a 8,000 to 1 shot

This shit just doesn't keep happening. Doesn't matter how sharp you might be.

**gcd8** · 01-03-14, 01:16 AM

he's got time til monday plenty of basketball and nfl playoffs still, i don't know if carbon lets u do like open parlays but if they do i think he could scrape something together and do what he does sick parlays under dogs well just get another parlay started and end it with fsu money line so ur raking in big either way

**Plaza23** · 01-03-14, 01:19 AM

Originally posted by VegasInsider

Even if he has $28,000 and can get to Vegas to make the play....what if Auburn wins???

Now he's out $28K and STILL has to sweat the payout.

He seems to have confidence in this book and has cashed out before, but IDK. I'd be on the phone first thing in the morning.

Trust me, THEY KNOW HE HAS THIS TICKET ALIVE.

I dont think he has alot of leverage with Carbon though. If Carbon slow pays him, they slow pay him. Not much he can do about it. Most of these online sportsbook have max payout limits per month - so i bet he's going to get slow paid even if he does win by them.

This situation would be way easier if the original parlay bet was made in Las Vegas at a sportsbook. Maybe he should try to get in contact with some other players at Carbon and see if they've been able to be paid out big amounts by them?

**thetrinity** · 01-03-14, 01:20 AM

i stopped playing poker on carbon b/c they took forever to pay, but they do pay, he may get slow paid like someone else said.

maybe they would transfer this to another book if it hits? probably not, but its possible, tons of books this would be nothing at.

i do think if he was planning on hedging this he should have went with fsu ml and takin the points with auburn and hoped for the ultimate middle, still in a spot that most of us will never see.

**VegasInsider** · 01-03-14, 01:24 AM

Originally posted by Plaza23

I dont think he has alot of leverage with Carbon though. If Carbon slow pays him, they slow pay him. Not much he can do about it. Most of these online sportsbook have max payout limits per month - so i bet he's going to get slow paid even if he does win by them.

This situation would be way easier if the original parlay bet was made in Las Vegas at a sportsbook. Maybe he should try to get in contact with some other players at Carbon and see if they've been able to be paid out big amounts by them?

Yeah, slowpay would even be alright. I mean, let's say he goes for glory and wins. That's $38K. If they send him $3,000 at the first of every month, that's a pretty good deal. My concerns are "IF".

I'd be trying to get as much out of this quickly, if possible.

This is totally unreal.

**thetrinity** · 01-03-14, 01:31 AM

Originally posted by VegasInsider

Yeah, slowpay would even be alright. I mean, let's say he goes for glory and wins. That's $38K. If they send him $3,000 at the first of every month, that's a pretty good deal. My concerns are "IF".

I'd be trying to get as much out of this quickly, if possible.

This is totally unreal.

the big IF is are they gona be around in a year, they will honor this ticket 100% if they stay in business.

**lakerboy** · 01-03-14, 01:34 AM

VI go to bed. You should not be so worried about some internet stranger.

**tto827** · 01-03-14, 01:37 AM

Lakerboy all mad he isn't the current poster boy for $5 dart chuckers

**VegasInsider** · 01-03-14, 01:41 AM

Originally posted by lakerboy

VI go to bed. You should not be so worried about some internet stranger.

Don't worry about me, chief. Snowing like a bastard here and no one is moving in the morning.

Guy trying to bury me

**VegasInsider** · 01-03-14, 01:42 AM

Originally posted by tto827

Lakerboy all mad he isn't the current poster boy for $5 dart chuckers

dart chuckers

**MoneyLineDawg** · 01-03-14, 01:49 AM

Definitely try to settle first thing tomorrow morning....If you're in contact with them and settle it just seems like a much better chance you get paid as well with a deal in place

So sick we actually send money to places where IF we hit big we have to worry about getting paid.....Like how is this even close to acceptable if you think about it?

**STAX** · 01-03-14, 01:55 AM

Im not worried about getting paid. Ive played on Carbon's poker network since 2005 (when they opened as poker.com). Ive never had a single transaction issue. Yeah it may take a while to get paid, but I am close to 100% confident Ill eventually get the money (can never be 100% in the US). You can actually get more than one max check per month too if you stackup your cashouts.

**STAX** · 01-03-14, 01:57 AM

I would love to settle for 5k, take away half my action, and let the other half ride... (gtd 5k, with a chance at 23K) but doubt Ill even get an offer as they claim they do not settle out. We will see, might just let this ride all the way. My girlfriend is lifelong Auburn fan, will be a fun sweat for sure...

**thetrinity** · 01-03-14, 02:00 AM

Originally posted by STAX

I would love to settle for 5k, take away half my action, and let the other half ride... (gtd 5k, with a chance at 23K) but doubt Ill even get an offer as they claim they do not settle out. We will see, might just let this ride all the way. My girlfriend is lifelong Auburn fan, will be a fun sweat for sure...

get her opinion and do the opposite

**DoubleR90** · 01-03-14, 12:36 PM

What a dream spot to be in OP. IMO you HAVE to hedge here. Especially if your current bankroll is in a position where your units are only $5, this is A LOT of money. You can guarantee yourself a couple thousand easily and let about 20K or so ride on your parlay. Hedging is normally -EV but this is the exact situation where hedging is actually +EV for you

**Jayvegas420** · 01-05-14, 01:09 AM

Don't know why no one suggested 3 different 2 game ML parlays before Bama kicked

Lay $1000 on each parlay & hope The Tide & The Noles didn't win.
As it turned out he'd have $1000 parlay with a +500 winner & a possible -260.
For a payout well over $8000 for a total investment of $3005.
If the -260 looses He cashes for $38,000 on an investment of $3005.
The smart thing to do now is to hedge.
So I would naturally let it ride. You will win it too.
This is a 50/50 type game.

**Matt1144** · 01-05-14, 01:42 AM

Hedge. I'm not in a position to tell you how to do it exactly (I'm sure I could do the math but that's no fun) but I'm sure you can find someone legit to help you out.

Regardless of what you do I just want to say this is an incredible position you are in. My cynical side is telling me that you should simply hedge because parlays like this never fully hit, but there is a bigger part that is telling me this is fate. I've been on Auburn ML since the matchup was set and something is telling me this parlay will finish.

Call me crazy but I can't be the only one thinking it.

**FrozenMAN** · 01-05-14, 01:59 AM

wow...every time I try this I ALWAYS end up missing it by 1 team and it's for not....it's never for 40k but still, never catch a break with ml dog parlays

**romaldinho88** · 01-05-14, 02:49 AM

Try to leave some $ in and hedge in play if get a decent lead for Half time or sometime in the second half,could find the middle ground and be highly profitable if you can get + points but yeah i agree with the guy 10-15g hedge initially is sound but could be very worthwhile to take into consideration having money left over to bet in-play. BOL

**STAX** · 01-06-14, 08:04 AM

thanks for everything guys. I'm letting it all ride tonight. I just cant justify depositing thousands of dollars on a -300 shot when I can't get any of the money for at least a month (Carbon). I could pay a vig and have someone place the bet for me but then I'm giving away a lot between the vig, the ehdge (hedges are always -EV, but minimize variance). I'm not a sports better, I'm a poker player, but over the last half of last year and all of this year I've done fairly well. 10K would be helpful and nice, but it wouldn't change my life much. 43K wouldn't change my life much either, but it would be awesome I tell you that. 43K gets me excited, 10K not so much. If I hit this I'll probably open a few accounts on SB sites that pay out faster. Carbon just happens to be where I play poker and I bet a little sports on the side for fun.

Definately gonna be fun sweating this tonight. Never had this much on the line outside of poker. Not really nervous about the outcome, I'll be fine either way. I just hiope it isn't a FSU blowout, where its over before halftime. Ive had a few longshot parlays come down to the last game. None were as big of a payout as this, but last year I had an 8 teamers come down to Houston/New England game on Monday or Sunday night, and NE was up 21-0 after 1st qtr (I had HOU obv), the other parlay was a 7 teamer and I had San Fran the night Seattle blew them out of the water. I dont care if I get my heart broken, just don't crush my dreams before I fall asleep!! LOL

**SteveKerrsJunk** · 01-06-14, 08:07 AM

Wow!! Can't believe you letting it ride dawg!!! Unreal! Jordan in 98, Hawks of last year! You're unreal kid and you're gonna hit this!!!

**STAX** · 01-06-14, 08:12 AM

thanks Kerr, I would have made a small hedge play (gaurentee myself 3-4K) if I could deposit and withdraw the funds easily, but its the US and we aren't free to gamble with our hard earned monies

**theballsflop** · 01-06-14, 08:26 AM

Originally posted by STAX

thanks Kerr, I would have made a small hedge play (gaurentee myself 3-4K) if I could deposit and withdraw the funds easily, but its the US and we aren't free to gamble with our hard earned monies

Im cheering for u bud, dont bother with betting sports with that money though, if u're a profitable poker player this money can give your bankroll a huge boost, instant jump up in stakes. Reward yourself with a big buy in tournament and hope to run deep in that. Either way, GL!

**The Giant** · 01-06-14, 08:38 AM

What happened between the Oklahoma game and today? I thought you were going to put some money on Florida State?

At any rate, good luck, man.

**STAX** · 01-06-14, 08:55 AM

Originally posted by The Giant

What happened between the Oklahoma game and today? I thought you were going to put some money on Florida State?

At any rate, good luck, man.

I wanted to, but I just dont want to put my life roll online (Carbon) and have it tied up for 4 to 8 weeks. Dont wanna pay the vig and double juice either for someone else to place it for me.

**The Giant** · 01-06-14, 09:00 AM

I just thought you already had enough money on there to get down a nice chunk on Florida State. If you had to reload again to do it, I can understand not wanting to, I guess.

Here's to more SEC dominance in title games.

**seaborneq** · 01-06-14, 09:05 AM

Originally posted by seaborneq

I'll help Stax out by putting a substantial amount on my alma mater's ML. That will guarantee a Bama loss, then he will have something to work with.

I wish I had known you were going to let it ride before I did this. LOL

**MickeyMan** · 01-06-14, 09:05 AM

Good luck man

**hoot29576** · 01-06-14, 09:10 AM

Jump a plane and get to Vegas and place a hedge bet. You still have time

**Jayvegas420** · 01-06-14, 10:51 AM

How far from Vegas are you?

**DoubleR90** · 01-06-14, 01:47 PM

Originally posted by hoot29576

Jump a plane and get to Vegas and place a hedge bet. You still have time

For 30K+ I think this is definitely worth it

**DoubleR90** · 01-06-14, 01:49 PM

Originally posted by romaldinho88

Try to leave some $ in and hedge in play if get a decent lead for Half time or sometime in the second half,could find the middle ground and be highly profitable if you can get + points

This is actually a great idea. If you don't want to hedge because of the -300 then wait and if Auburn can get out to an early lead you can probably live in-play and get FSU ML at somewhere around -150 or -125 or something like that

**Ghenghis Kahn** · 01-06-14, 01:54 PM

wow dude wtf? you missed your chance when you said you could've got florida st ml at -230 or something.

did you even talk to carbon customer service to settle your bet for $10,000?

it's not too late pal, put some on florida st. ml for guaranteed profit.

**STAX** · 01-06-14, 02:04 PM

Yeah I talked to Carbon support, they dont do settlements... FSU was -260 for a while on Saturday, they are -330 now. Idk, I could put enough to gaurentee a 4 figure score, but it really isnt worth it for me personally to have that money tied up for so long. Im just gonna sweat it out. I dont really wanna pay so much extra juice and vig either, as well as have the cash tied up for 2 months minimum, for just a couple G's. I really think Auburn is gonna win too, and 43K is a little more than my magic number, while 10K isnt even close.

Gonna be a nice sweat tonight for sure, just hope its not an early blowout. I think if Auburn keeps it close in the first half, they have a better than 50/50 shot at winning. I really doubt FSU comes out firing on all cylanders, never seems to happen in these games, but if they get out to a 2 or 3 TD lead, it will be over early. Maybe Auburn will just dominate all night and win 42-14...

**matthew919** · 01-06-14, 09:28 PM

Ballsy play man- kudos for NOT hedging. Hope this pays out for you!