This is my first topic, which I will describe my understanding of how the bookmakers.
To confirm the theory, I will give examples.
To confirm the theory, I will give examples.
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Example:
Portugal, Maritimo-Braga. Result: 2-1, 2-2 (Draw)
First odds (1x2): 3.64 3.44 2.15 (EU odds)
Last odds (1x2): 4.49 3.64 1.89 (EU odds)
analyze only pre-match odds.
We have movement line: Up home team - -12 price; Up draw - -4 price; Down away team - 19 price
If you believe the movement, the money is concentrated in Braga.
But if you add another indicator - Balance Money Supply (BMS) - it's easy: -12 + -4 + 19 = 3 price
We will see advantage line in away team for three price.
What conclusion?
-Bookmaker cut odds on the Home team and Draw. High probability that the final result will be: home team or draw.Comment -
Now I show how to work with filters...
Step 1:
Entering Opening and Closing odds in the table.Comment -
Step 2:
Filtering movement Match odds.Comment -
Step 3:
Filtering payuot (marge), and ∑₃Line'².Comment -
good stuff-thanksComment -
As the odds spread further apart, the value of a cent becomes smaller and smaller.
The theoretical hold is likely almost identical I would assume. This assuredly will not be a winning strategy I can promise you that, but BOL with flipping coins.Comment -
I don't think odds from recreational bookmakers matter so much
funny title by the wayComment -
Your profits depend on the selection criteria (algorithm).
...the example I showed you just tip of the iceberg
if the filter only one parameter and ignore the other indicators - the result will be negative distance nadlitelnoy
necessary to consider a set of indicators...
Search "good algorithm" - it's long (or neverending) story
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No idea what you are sayinComment -
This is extremely without sense!!!
According to your opinion this mean that moneyline (that changes from) 2.9 & 1.5 its worse than 3.3 & 1.3 only because in total we have +0.4 - 0.2 = +0.2 so very wrong way to think. Everything depends on odds. The lower the odds of favourite team ,the bigger will be the difference on odds change but that doesnt mean the payout is getting better ....Comment -
Something to dig into on a rainy day
need tons and tons of exsmplesComment -
interesting theory. going to try it out on paperComment -
I'm dumb
Northbet seems to cut 10% on the hometeamComment -
Just calculate and enjoy the games, I hit 12-4 almost every week because of experience! 32 years! not this egghead stuffComment -
interesting theory - bookies do know factors that influence games - which they dont tell the public - so this theory has some grounds - it is harder for them to predict money movement - so their first odds are adequate and adjustments are cause of money of public - i think it is not the best theory - but definitely not a loser oneComment -
12-4 every week?
On what?Comment -
Might as well have a topic about the magical fukkin coin in the think tank... Dear godComment -
it ticks, the basis of data taken of ladder Betfair.
Each band coefficients step.
Look ....
Factor Range Step (ticks)
1.00 - 2.00 1 : 1.01, 1.02, 1.03...
2.00 - 3.00 2 : 2.02, 2.04, 2.06...
3.00 - 4.00 5 : 3.05, 3.10, 3.15...
4.00 - 6.00 10 : 4.10, 4.20, 4.30...
etc.
can also use the formula Percentage.Comment -
as someone already mentioned, the theoretical hold remains more or less the same, the more the lines drift apart, the bigger the spread between those lines becomes, its just maths, not the book winking at you on which side is the right one. books are not stupid, they wouldn't risk tipping people off on which side to bet
what other parameters have you used to choose your bets? my guess is that if you did make a profit it is just a coincidence, usually what we do is we are biased, there is a chance that if you backtested it, you picked the criteria and/or sample that would validate your system
and lets face it, this is a system, the think tank is aimed at discussing mathematical/statistical approaches to handicapping, not systems, there is no system that works, at least not in the long run, and the short run is simply called varianceComment -
what other parameters have you used to choose your bets?
- first parameter-
I make opening line, and look how bookie change this line.
- second-
Filtering OL and CL in the database plus looking movement, type movement, payout.
-third-
Looking lines Pinnacle-Marathon-BetVictorComment -
ok, that seems reasonable
do you mind sharing what have been your results up to now? win %, roi? backtesting and also actualy resultsComment -
ok, I'm sharing my result - screen my account....and maybe share database odds Pinnacle.Comment -
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My result for 30 days.
Make a 160 bets type bet - flat, 5% of the bank's.Comment -
OK cool story bro on your theory, maybe post some plays over here if it's so effectiveComment
