Dollars2Donuts Daily NBA, NHL and NFL wagers

**smarotta09** · 12-03-13, 03:18 PM

14 plays with the 1 added included incase anyone was wondering

**la cara** · 12-03-13, 04:08 PM

Hey DD... How do you stay profitable betting 24 units in one night?.. I mean by all means you are free to do whatever you like but as a gamblers perspective.... It can't be too smart in the bankroll department.... Right...??? Please elaborate

**chris86** · 12-03-13, 04:17 PM

Hey D2D. I'm new here but started tailing you a few days ago. I'm curious why you passed on San Jose in regulation tonight. Leafs have been extremely underwhelming in the last month or so.

**matthew919** · 12-03-13, 04:18 PM

Originally posted by la cara

Hey DD... How do you stay profitable betting 24 units in one night?.. I mean by all means you are free to do whatever you like but as a gamblers perspective.... It can't be too smart in the bankroll department.... Right...??? Please elaborate

If all the plays are +EV, the more the better. Getting your entire bankroll in play every day is a goal I would love to achieve. What surprises me is that he's still betting $50 and $100 plays. If the record from the last thread was accurate, correct bet sizing could have probably made D2D a millionaire over that run.

**Dollars2Donuts** · 12-03-13, 04:49 PM

Originally posted by la cara

Hey DD... How do you stay profitable betting 24 units in one night?.. I mean by all means you are free to do whatever you like but as a gamblers perspective.... It can't be too smart in the bankroll department.... Right...??? Please elaborate

I have elaborated many times, but I will do so again. I am a high volume bettor, and I always will be and there are two main reason for this:

1) I bet games where I see an edge. If I see an edge and leave that game sitting on the sidelines, am I not in essence, throwing that money away? People ask all the time 'why this game' and 'why that game'....it is never that easy. I am NEVER saying 'Team A will win tonight'....what I am saying is that 'I believe that Team A will win enough times, if this game is played 100 times, to give this bet value'.

A common misconception among us is that ANYONE can see into the future. We cannot....that I can assure you.

2) The higher volume you bet, the smaller the variance. If a bettor bets one game per day and has a stretch where he goes 1-12 (and yes, that has happened to me on a single night before....ugly), it may drive him entirely mad. I bet a LOAD of games, in fact last year I had over 40 wagers out in one day. If you understand statisctics you will understand that volume (the more you do anything) smooths out the ups and down....but of course this only makes sense if you are betting with an edge that is more than perceived, it needs to be real.

Now, to bankroll management. I have no issue putting out a third (33%) of my online Bank into play in one day. You need to realize that this is NO DIFFERENT than if I put 2% of my roll into one game per day for 16 days....right? Volume doesn't mean lack of control. I can assure you that I excercise proper BR Management on a daily basis, and that each and every day I go into that day with a plan.

Originally posted by chris86

Hey D2D. I'm new here but started tailing you a few days ago. I'm curious why you passed on San Jose in regulation tonight. Leafs have been extremely underwhelming in the last month or so.

Too many reasons to list? SJ likes to go to OT, the Leafs last few games and trends, rest, etc. Again, I am not saying I like the Leafs here....but there are a few factors that make this game too sharp for me to wager on. If you think just picking the better team and then throwing it into 'Regulation' makes it a strong bet....that just won't work out for you. You need to see a distinct edge and reasons why or why not something happens.

Originally posted by matthew919

If all the plays are +EV, the more the better. Getting your entire bankroll in play every day is a goal I would love to achieve. What surprises me is that he's still betting $50 and $100 plays. If the record from the last thread was accurate, correct bet sizing could have probably made D2D a millionaire over that run.

Thanks Matthew....here is the quick explanation:

Last year had two segments for me....

1) Betting at Bodog. I went from $250 to somewhere in the neighbourhood of $8k. I started betting $15-30 per game and quickly increased as my bank zoomed upwards. Right around the end of this time period I found SBR and started posting. As soon as I started posting guys kept telling me that I should get off of Bodog and they recommended 5dimes (a great book).

When I left Bodog I cashed out the full amount and used $6000 to put down on a new car.

2) I bought in at 5dimes for $500 I believe....it could have been $600 or something as well....cannot really remember off hand.

At the end of last season (the culmination of NBA and NHL) I cashed $10k out of 5dimes, leaving $1800 in the account. I had just broken up with my long term girlfriend and was looking at properties. I ended up buying a beautiful condo and that $10k was very much needed.

Now, the $1800 sat in that account for the last 6 months until I started back 6 days ago (actually I bet two days before I started posting again....a time in which I had to decide whether I wanted to commit to posting again....it was not an easy decision).

Of course, betting with $1800 in an account is a lot tougher than going with $12-$14k, and of course because I do manage my bank, I had to drop down to $50 units. If you look back into my thread from last year you will see that I never bet under $100 on anything, and many nights had 2 or more bets out of $400 plus. My ego is not too big to know that I need to start smaller again....and hopefully next year I won't have to use the $$$ for anything and can continue to increase my bet sizing for years to come.

If you have any questions about my record keeping from last year, know this.....many people continually questioned it (they usually do on a winning thread) and nobody at any time came up with anything more than a small clerical error here and there....and if fact a couple of times I corrected errors whch actually hurt me. This year HE is tracking me completely independantly, and that works for me too! Way less work!

Frankly, this website keeps me being honest with myself. If I didn't have this site, my bet sizing might get out of control, and chances are I would chase here and there....being accountable and professional has helped me so much.....and that is one of the biggest reasons that I am back posting on SBR again this year....(of course the people are mostly good shits too).

I hope I have answered your questions clearly and directly.

D2D

**matthew919** · 12-03-13, 05:30 PM

My advice would be to not tap your BR unless your life depends on it. With your edge, every dime you can spare should be going into your bankroll, even if it means living on the cheap for a year or two. Think of it this way- if you had rented a cheap place and had that 10k working for you, you'd have doubled it over just this last couple days' run. Instead of being up 2K or whatever you'd be up like 15 grand already. By the end of the season who knows, you might have been able to buy that condo with a suitcase full of cash. No interest whatsoever.

Starting with 1K and doubling up 5 times = 32K. Starting with 10K and doubling up 5 times = 320K.

The idea is exponential growth-and if you tap your bankroll when it's small- even for what seems like a small amount- you'll end up setting yourself back years.

I envy your betting options. Since you're on the right side of the border, you'll have access to Pinny's high limits down the road. Stay disciplined and bet half or quarter kelly until you're up against limit ceilings. But it would really benefit you to be adjusting your bet sizes more or less daily based on your current br and estimated edge. The SBR kelly calculator is your friend.

**la cara** · 12-03-13, 05:45 PM

Thanks for clearing that up D2D and now that I read that it makes perfect sense... Sorry to make you keep explaining the same thing but honestly it probably won't be the last time you have to explain that :-)

Bol tonight bud

**RavensFan2k3** · 12-03-13, 05:46 PM

Interesting call on Toronto Raptors...I just cant see them covering

**Dollars2Donuts** · 12-03-13, 05:47 PM

Originally posted by matthew919

My advice would be to not tap your BR unless your life depends on it. With your edge, every dime you can spare should be going into your bankroll, even if it means living on the cheap for a year or two. Think of it this way- if you had rented a cheap place and had that 10k working for you, you'd have doubled it over just this last couple days' run. Instead of being up 2K or whatever you'd be up like 15 grand already. By the end of the season who knows, you might have been able to buy that condo with a suitcase full of cash. No interest whatsoever.

Starting with 1K and doubling up 5 times = 32K. Starting with 10K and doubling up 5 times = 320K.

The idea is exponential growth-and if you tap your bankroll when it's small- even for what seems like a small amount- you'll end up setting yourself back years.

I envy your betting options. Since you're on the right side of the border, you'll have access to Pinny's high limits down the road. Stay disciplined and bet half or quarter kelly until you're up against limit ceilings. But it would really benefit you to be adjusting your bet sizes more or less daily based on your current br and estimated edge. The SBR kelly calculator is your friend.

Thanks for the advice....it sounds like exactly what I was saying last year. I was telling people to NEVER cash out and start again at lower limits....life took over, and it took over right at the end of my two favourite seasons....I would love to go back and change it up, but of course, what's done is done....I will get there again and next time I won't pull funds. Thanks again.

**bald_guy** · 12-03-13, 05:47 PM

Originally posted by matthew919

My advice would be to not tap your BR unless your life depends on it. With your edge, every dime you can spare should be going into your bankroll, even if it means living on the cheap for a year or two. Think of it this way- if you had rented a cheap place and had that 10k working for you, you'd have doubled it over just this last couple days' run. Instead of being up 2K or whatever you'd be up like 15 grand already. By the end of the season who knows, you might have been able to buy that condo with a suitcase full of cash. No interest whatsoever.

Starting with 1K and doubling up 5 times = 32K. Starting with 10K and doubling up 5 times = 320K.

The idea is exponential growth-and if you tap your bankroll when it's small- even for what seems like a small amount- you'll end up setting yourself back years.

I envy your betting options. Since you're on the right side of the border, you'll have access to Pinny's high limits down the road. Stay disciplined and bet half or quarter kelly until you're up against limit ceilings. But it would really benefit you to be adjusting your bet sizes more or less daily based on your current br and estimated edge. The SBR kelly calculator is your friend.

If he lived in Vegas I might agree with you more, but keeping tons of money in a foreign account can go very bad. I think its good to take your profits after so much. The only way I can see him doing volume bets with really huge amounts (over time) is keeping way more then I would feel comfortable with in any book. Think Bet Island.

**matthew919** · 12-03-13, 05:54 PM

Originally posted by bald_guy

If he lived in Vegas I might agree with you more, but keeping tons of money in a foreign account can go very bad. I think its good to take your profits after so much. The only way I can see him doing volume bets with really huge amounts (over time) is keeping way more then I would feel comfortable with in any book. Think Bet Island.

Well at some point it becomes necessary, unless you want to keep betting 500 bucks for the rest of your life. That's just a risk you have to take. And you can do a lot worse than keeping your funds at Pinny. Some books definitely more risky IMO- assuming that I had a large six figure balance, I wouldn't feel safe keeping it at any out that serves US customers. But as the saying goes, it takes money to make money, so you can minimize your risk, but it will always be nonzero.

GL this year D2D.

**rainman416** · 12-03-13, 06:52 PM

Love you're Thread D2D. I have a ton to learn about BR Management and "Staying away from Sports I don't know".. Reading your posts is enlightening.. You're def on the ball and your mathematical input really helps me out, as that is where I usually get lost in my own thread..

You present as a stand up guy.

SBR needs more "Good People" .. Win/Loss is second to character imo. Seems you've got both covered

GL this season

**Coreos** · 12-03-13, 06:55 PM

Originally posted by RavensFan2k3

Interesting call on Toronto Raptors...I just cant see them covering

Yea, I'm wondering about this play as well. GS is on the rebound, finally winning one after losing 3 straight - we know they love to put up huge points at home. And Toronto, well, is Toronto. I don't think they even break 100 pts 50% of their games? Might pick them for a half depending on how the game flow is.

**Dollars2Donuts** · 12-03-13, 07:01 PM

Originally posted by Coreos

Yea, I'm wondering about this play as well. GS is on the rebound, finally winning one after losing 3 straight - we know they love to put up huge points at home. And Toronto, well, is Toronto. I don't think they even break 100 pts 50% of their games? Might pick them for a half depending on how the game flow is.

Just watch. Raps youth will want to keep up with GS youth, Lowery will compete above his head, Derozan will go off for a bunch of points too. The Raps are a better team than they are getting credit for and they are working their tails off this year. I say GS wins here 75% of the time.....but Raps cover well over 50%. NOTE: This game will see a load of the public on GS

**Flatbed24** · 12-03-13, 07:11 PM

What a great thread.

Thanks to D2D for the picks and to the rest for the discussion.

**High3rEl3m3nt** · 12-03-13, 07:12 PM

GL everyone!!

**15cnbrk12345** · 12-03-13, 07:22 PM

Greetings from Turkey

it is one of the best threads i ve ever seen good job bro... please keep it up with

**BigDofBA** · 12-03-13, 07:22 PM

Originally posted by la cara

Hey DD... How do you stay profitable betting 24 units in one night?.. I mean by all means you are free to do whatever you like but as a gamblers perspective.... It can't be too smart in the bankroll department.... Right...??? Please elaborate

I don't understand this logic because over time you're going to be making those bets anyway. What does it matter if you bet 10 games in a day or 10 games in a week?

If you have an edge, it would be smarter to play more games would it not?

It seems like I win more when I have my bankroll spread out over a high volume of plays rather than going large on a few games.

**Coreos** · 12-03-13, 07:45 PM

Originally posted by Dollars2Donuts

Just watch. Raps youth will want to keep up with GS youth, Lowery will compete above his head, Derozan will go off for a bunch of points too. The Raps are a better team than they are getting credit for and they are working their tails off this year. I say GS wins here 75% of the time.....but Raps cover well over 50%. NOTE: This game will see a load of the public on GS

Oh I agree that GS will have the public on their side. I can see your reasoning, but I've been losing on Toronto so far this year, so am kind of on auto fade. But that's a pretty big spread...will have to think about it.

**alamo** · 12-03-13, 08:00 PM

Originally posted by High3rEl3m3nt

GL everyone!!

HigherElement, Is D2D's record updated from last night ?

**Bill_Hicks** · 12-03-13, 08:12 PM

Originally posted by alamo

HigherElement, Is D2D's record updated from last night ?

Saints 4 unit pick not there at the moment.

**High3rEl3m3nt** · 12-03-13, 08:13 PM

Yes, sir. I just updated a few selections that ended after I went to bed. I try to catch everything the night of, or the following night.

**High3rEl3m3nt** · 12-03-13, 08:14 PM

The two saints selections are up there...I had them on my running list of plays for everyone.

**alamo** · 12-03-13, 08:21 PM

Originally posted by High3rEl3m3nt

Yes, sir. I just updated a few selections that ended after I went to bed. I try to catch everything the night of, or the following night.

Cheers bud.

**Coreos** · 12-03-13, 08:28 PM

Originally posted by fitguy67

speaking of that rarest of sbr-commodities, civilized threads, and who should show up but the CEO of the smoothest-flowing (and money-making) threads...up 50 units in MLB this past year (the old fashioned hard way...one unit at time)

SBR Forum - Sports Betting Talk - Sportsbook Review Forum

http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-betting/2269918-2013-mlb-thread-p188.html

Sports betting and handicapping forum: discuss picks, odds, and predictions for upcoming games and results on latest bets.

currently
NFL http://forum.sbrforum.com/nfl-bettin...3-14-a-p3.html
NBA http://forum.sbrforum.com/nba-basket...3-14-a-p6.html

that "culture" which intuitively protects itself from external threats is alive and well in all of Paco's threads...all centred around the OP and a good gang of regulars...same thing i posted about above, and the raw materials are all in place here as well

good threads at SBR are like good friends in real life...hard to find, but definitely worth the effort to maintain...and always room for one more

Pacocn is good peoples. Consistently/selectively hitting across 3 sports and nice, clean thread. I haven't perused them in awhile but his threads are always top notch.

**Dollars2Donuts** · 12-03-13, 08:36 PM

Well, our two regulation plays in the NHL are going down in flames. Carolina has been playing some good hockey....surprised this one is going that badly though. Also, Pittsburgh has been catching their stride and the Isles have been rough....looks like the rest of the night we will be playing catch-up....hope we can get back to a break even night!

**Bill_Hicks** · 12-03-13, 08:37 PM

Originally posted by High3rEl3m3nt

Yes, sir. I just updated a few selections that ended after I went to bed. I try to catch everything the night of, or the following night.

Awesome work, thanks!

**High3rEl3m3nt** · 12-03-13, 08:40 PM

I remember pacon doing the sporttrends thread...whatever happened to that site?

What a great night of hockey from just a viewing standpoint...I am watching four games right now!

**Dollars2Donuts** · 12-03-13, 10:10 PM

13 points in the last 58 seconds of the Miami Heat game.....to lose by 3. That one hurt pretty badly, as the entire game is looked like a solid pick. Very rough start to the night

**BIGDAY** · 12-03-13, 10:20 PM

This thread needs a

Keep er up pal!

**la cara** · 12-03-13, 10:37 PM

the rationale behind betting small on 1 or 2 games is that if you do happen to have one of those nights where you go 1-12 on one night.. your bankroll would take a big hit making it harder to get back on your feet. if you do go 1-12 over a 2 week span... maybe somewhere along the lines you can take a break and focus....just a thought

but on the flip side i see the point of volume betting to minimize the variance...i just think i dont have the enough Valium to risk that much

**Dollars2Donuts** · 12-03-13, 10:43 PM

Originally posted by la cara

the rationale behind betting small on 1 or 2 games is that if you do happen to have one of those nights where you go 1-12 on one night.. your bankroll would take a big hit making it harder to get back on your feet. if you do go 1-12 over a 2 week span... maybe somewhere along the lines you can take a break and focus....just a thought

Obviously just a difference in opinion. You are thinking like a loser, not like a guy that wins. I am not calling you a 'loser' technically, but I am just saying that what you are talking about is taking a loser's approach to making wagers...and in my books that is the wrong approach. Generally I chalk a losing streak up to variance.....and a winning streak I chalk up my being good. Just a mind-set I would rather have. And again, if there is a perceived edge there and I do not take it....then I am giving money away.

**iWin** · 12-03-13, 10:55 PM

D2D, Do you think the Thunder can win this game outright? Planning to play big on the live moneyline.

**Dollars2Donuts** · 12-03-13, 11:04 PM

Originally posted by iWin

D2D, Do you think the Thunder can win this game outright? Planning to play big on the live moneyline.

I am sorry, I am not watching live and cannot advise you. To do so, would not be fair to you.

**Dollars2Donuts** · 12-03-13, 11:39 PM

I am really considering the middle in the GS/TO game here. GS -9.5 second half is basically GS +7.5 and I have an automatic 15 point middle opp. Tough to lay off....thoughts?