Officially retired

[The Giant]

itll be the 2013-2014 version of this...

http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-ta...elusional.html

Goatmilk has another version of that thread going this season, claiming the New Jersey Nets have the best starting five in possibly league history. Unfortunately, I'm too lazy to look for it right now.

[SpeedPro]

The stock market is a safer bet!!!!

[No coincidences]

If I ever needed a reminder of why this shit is just one big waste of time long-term, look no further than tonight.

Entire world on Northern Illinois, No. 1 public play of the day. Monster RLM. NIU goes from -3 to -1 and -135 to -110 on the ML. NIU only a PK at the half down by 4 -- and they win by 18.

Knicks are +6.5. Up three, stupid foul to end regulation, lose by 7 in OT. Again, biggest public NBA bet of the day.

Rockets are up by 14 going into the fourth quarter in Dallas. Magically lose by 3. Line closes at 2.5.

T'Wolves favored for some reason on a back-to-back against the Clippers. Open at +1, close at -2. Still lose.

Unranked BYU favored by -7 at home after opening at -5.5 against No. 21 Iowa State. ML opens at -235, closes at -335. Cyclones win straight up.

I would've been on all five of those in some capacity and gone 0-for-5. Books got their clocks cleaned tonight.

Banging my head against the wall for five hours straight would've been more productive than trying to figure these games out.

[ksnooksk]

I'm not sure if I should be thankful or livid that I pushed with Houston +3.

[pavyracer]

Quit looking at lines. Cap the games and bet the winners. If you think Northern Illinois is a better team and will win the game don't look at line movement. There is a reason lines move. Sometimes the books move lines to get action on opposite teasers. For example Saints opened at -7.5 so the can get action on -1.5 teaser and then moved to +9 so the can get action on +15 Falcons. Books are smart.

[greenhippo]

No Coin, you would have bet on Toledo why? Huskies the much, much better team.

[billysink]

Books had no shot to keep up with the true line in Toledo.

That line should have been a touchdown and a tick Huskies.

Scared a lot of money away with the circle jerk.

Imperative to establish a true line on something.

Books would have gotten killed way worse if they hung it out right here.

[No coincidences]

No Coin, you would have bet on Toledo why? Huskies the much, much better team.

Line play only. If you can get a +3 (-110) when Pinny's sitting at a -110 ML on NIU and the public is hammering the Huskies, normally that's a money bet. For some reason, NIU continues to be a cash cow to the public, and Vegas is completely stumped by this team. I think they're like 19-5 ATS now in the last two years. That's a lot of stubbornness from the books.

[No coincidences]

Quit looking at lines. Cap the games and bet the winners. If you think Northern Illinois is a better team and will win the game don't look at line movement. There is a reason lines move. Sometimes the books move lines to get action on opposite teasers. For example Saints opened at -7.5 so the can get action on -1.5 teaser and then moved to +9 so the can get action on +15 Falcons. Books are smart.

You think the books were being "smart" on that NIU/Toledo line? LOL.

[TwoWays]

lang is bad

[No coincidences]

Books had no shot to keep up with the true line in Toledo.

That line should have been a touchdown and a tick Huskies.

Scared a lot of money away with the circle jerk.

Imperative to establish a true line on something.

Books would have gotten killed way worse if they hung it out right here.

I don't get what you're saying.

The books would've gotten killed way worse by making NIU -7 -- which is where they obviously should have been -- instead of being a virtual PK? NIU -7 would've scared away a lot of money that otherwise got pumped into NIU. A lot of bettors would've been on the sidelines at that number. Instead, you drop them to -1 and everyone and their mother hammers them.

Why this line opened where it did was confusing enough. Why it moved in Toledo's favor was even dumber. At least last week, when they had the lucky cover vs. Ball State, the line crossed a key number and books were obviously trying to correct what has become a weekly mistake with this team.

[Bet10Heinekens]

If I ever needed a reminder of why this shit is just one big waste of time long-term, look no further than tonight.

Entire world on Northern Illinois, No. 1 public play of the day. Monster RLM. NIU goes from -3 to -1 and -135 to -110 on the ML. NIU only a PK at the half down by 4 -- and they win by 18.

Knicks are +6.5. Up three, stupid foul to end regulation, lose by 7 in OT. Again, biggest public NBA bet of the day.

Rockets are up by 14 going into the fourth quarter in Dallas. Magically lose by 3. Line closes at 2.5.

T'Wolves favored for some reason on a back-to-back against the Clippers. Open at +1, close at -2. Still lose.

Unranked BYU favored by -7 at home after opening at -5.5 against No. 21 Iowa State. ML opens at -235, closes at -335. Cyclones win straight up.

I would've been on all five of those in some capacity and gone 0-for-5. Books got their clocks cleaned tonight.

Banging my head against the wall for five hours straight would've been more productive than trying to figure these games out.

Sports betting is not all about line movement, cap a game from X and O perspective for once

[greenhippo]

Line play only. If you can get a +3 (-110) when Pinny's sitting at a -110 ML on NIU and the public is hammering the Huskies, normally that's a money bet. For some reason, NIU continues to be a cash cow to the public, and Vegas is completely stumped by this team. I think they're like 19-5 ATS now in the last two years. That's a lot of stubbornness from the books.

This is exactly what gets you worked up. These are college players, they don't know what the line is nor do they care, at all, they go out there to win the game. N. Illini would have played the exact same way if they were bet up to -4 instead of down to a PK. Neither a team or their players care what you, me, the guy down the street bet on. They were the better, more talented team, more times than not these are the teams that win. So when you see a line that small, just put your $ on the better team and let it ride. Fukk line movement, it means nothing, NOTHING.

[No coincidences]

Sports betting is not all about line movement, cap a game from X and O perspective for once

If I didn't actually handicap games and just bet on movement alone, I definitely wouldn't be anywhere near in the black, let alone up triple digit units.

Now with that being said, there are times where I will give the books the benefit of the doubt on games and either pass because of a line or follow the oddsmakers' lead. After all, they are the professionals. I won't pretend to know anywhere near as much as they do on a specific game. Do I trust their judgement too much? Maybe. But I'd rather err on their side than the side of the amateur gambler who thinks betting the No. 1 public play of the day at -110 when they opened at -135 is a smart move.

[Seto]

If I didn't actually handicap games and just bet on movement alone, I definitely wouldn't be anywhere near in the black, let alone up triple digit units.

Now with that being said, there are times where I will give the books the benefit of the doubt on games and either pass because of a line or follow the oddsmakers' lead. After all, they are the professionals. I won't pretend to know anywhere near as much as they do on a specific game. Do I trust their judgement too much? Maybe. But I'd rather err on their side than the side of the amateur gambler who thinks betting the No. 1 public play of the day at -110 when they opened at -135 is a smart move.

I think all factors are important. I wouldn't let line movement be the only reason I make a play but turning a complete blind eye to it isn't going to help your cause. From what I've learned the top 4 things in order in gambling are:

1) Situational/how the 2 teams in particular behave in that spot
2) Personal feeling/experience
3) Line movement
4) Matchups

That would be for reg season (NBA and I imagine other sports too), in the playoffs matchups are probably a top 2 thing to consider.

[I/O]

Auburn just finished me off.

Later guys. It's been a fun few years, but I really can't take this anymore.

All accounts will be closed and I'm cashing out tonight.

As per usual, you HAVE TO make it about you. Can't just stop. Can't just go. Gotta start ANOTHER thread about something you. Just to (supposedly) end it.

I've been threw a number of forums over the years, and you have to be the loneliest drama queen the net has ever seen. Not even a teenage drama queen. But a grown man lonely drama queen.

It's pathetic.

The sad part is, you're not remotely addicted or attached to gambling. It's the FORUMS. Go seek some help.

[billysink]

I don't get what you're saying.

The books would've gotten killed way worse by making NIU -7 -- which is where they obviously should have been -- instead of being a virtual PK? NIU -7 would've scared away a lot of money that otherwise got pumped into NIU. A lot of bettors would've been on the sidelines at that number. Instead, you drop them to -1 and everyone and their mother hammers them.

Why this line opened where it did was confusing enough. Why it moved in Toledo's favor was even dumber. At least last week, when they had the lucky cover vs. Ball State, the line crossed a key number and books were obviously trying to correct what has become a weekly mistake with this team.

there was virtually no ML action on NIU as a result of the open. The line never induced any at all.

The game took very little until game day at which time it was manipulated to give the impression that NIU was vulnerable.

An old street trick. Used it all the time. Would never work on a game with more exposure than this one.

I pay almost no attention to LM and RLM. It rarely portrays the predictive of on field events and has very little to do with the games at hand. Simply a means to an end to maximize profit, minimize risk and limit exposure when at risk.

[No coincidences]

As per usual, you HAVE TO make it about you. Can't just stop. Can't just go. Gotta start ANOTHER thread about something you. Just to (supposedly) end it.

I've been threw a number of forums over the years, and you have to be the loneliest drama queen the net has ever seen. Not even a teenage drama queen. But a grown man lonely drama queen.

It's pathetic.

The sad part is, you're not remotely addicted or attached to gambling. It's the FORUMS. Go seek some help.

What are you, the bandwith police?

If it bothers you so much, why not just ignore the thread?

[No coincidences]

there was virtually no ML action on NIU as a result of the open. The line never induced any at all.

Are you talking about from sharps or the public?

Simply a means to an end to maximize profit, minimize risk and limit exposure when at risk.

I understand what you're saying, but again, how was making NIU less than a FG favorite here "maximizing profit" or "minimizing risk" or "limiting exposure when at risk" by the books?

If you make them -7, I could see meeting all three of those criteria. At -1, I don't know how they're doing anything other than offering up a freebee on a team that's already covered in nearly 80 percent of their games over the last two years. Only college game of the night, NIU is ranked and a public darling now with Lynch, etc. Seems like the dumbest time ever to serve them up at -1 to me.

In other words, other than the dumbasses like myself who would've believed the books were on to something with this line, weren't they just begging to get beat up again tonight by NIU from both the public and the sharp perspective?

[I/O]

What are you, the bandwith police?

If it bothers you so much, why not just ignore the thread?

Yeah. like I thought.

Carry on weirdo

[No coincidences]

Yeah. like I thought.

Carry on weirdo

I don't even know what that response means.

So your conclusion is I'm addicted to SBR? No shit, Sherlock. I quit gambling and I'm still posting here. It's the only message board on the Internet I post on. I don't even do Facebook, Twitter, etc. Just SBR.

That's your brilliant deduction? That I can't quit posting here? Never said I was going to, or that I could. But thanks for the analysis. Enlightening.

[No coincidences]

This is exactly what gets you worked up. These are college players, they don't know what the line is nor do they care, at all, they go out there to win the game. N. Illini would have played the exact same way if they were bet up to -4 instead of down to a PK. Neither a team or their players care what you, me, the guy down the street bet on. They were the better, more talented team, more times than not these are the teams that win. So when you see a line that small, just put your $ on the better team and let it ride. Fukk line movement, it means nothing, NOTHING.

I agree with all of this believe it or not, gh. Problem is, literally every time I have done just that -- ignored line movement, pounded a big public favorite, etc. -- I lose. Some people are good at avoiding "trap" lines and throwing caution to the wind when it comes to plays exactly like this one tonight. I'm definitely not one of them. If I'd taken NIU, Toledo would've won by 20.

[billysink]

Are you talking about from sharps or the public?



I understand what you're saying, but again, how was making NIU less than a FG favorite here "maximizing profit" or "minimizing risk" or "limiting exposure when at risk" by the books?

If you make them -7, I could see meeting all three of those criteria. At -1, I don't know how they're doing anything other than offering up a freebee on a team that's already covered in nearly 80 percent of their games over the last two years. Only college game of the night, NIU is ranked and a public darling now with Lynch, etc. Seems like the dumbest time ever to serve them up at -1 to me.

In other words, other than the dumbasses like myself who would've believed the books were on to something with this line, weren't they just begging to get beat up again tonight by NIU from both the public and the sharp perspective?

Coin I hate to say it but you thought exactly what the RLM bettors all did.

The books had no chance to profit, were at risk and minimized their exposure on the game having lead many, not to think that Toledo was the play but that NIU was not the play.

I will take a look at the rake on this one tomorrow. My guess is not a lot of money was spent on this one at all. Limited exposure.

[No coincidences]

Coin I hate to say it but you thought exactly what the RLM bettors all did.

The books had no chance to profit, were at risk and minimized their exposure on the game having lead many, not to think that Toledo was the play but that NIU was not the play.

I will take a look at the rake on this one tomorrow. My guess is not a lot of money was spent on this one at all. Limited exposure.

You think there are really that many bettors out there playing on RLM alone, vs. bettors licking their chops at getting NIU at -1? Maybe there are. I don't know. I think you'll be surprised by the dent NIU put in the books, but you would know better than I would so it'll be interesting to see what you find out.

Speaking from personal experience, most of the guys I know who bet hammered NIU tonight. They wouldn't be hammering them at -7, though. I still think the books would've been minimizing their exposure much more with NIU -7 than -1, but we'll just have to agree to disagree. I'm still in the learning stages of all this, so you've got an interesting perspective here.

[billysink]

You think there are really that many bettors out there playing on RLM alone, vs. bettors licking their chops at getting NIU at -1? Maybe there are. I don't know. I think you'll be surprised by the dent NIU put in the books, but you would know better than I would so it'll be interesting to see what you find out.

Speaking from personal experience, most of the guys I know who bet hammered NIU tonight. They wouldn't be hammering them at -7, though. I still think the books would've been minimizing their exposure much more with NIU -7 than -1, but we'll just have to agree to disagree. I'm still in the learning stages of all this, so you've got an interesting perspective here.

Crazy business. I had a guy once and the only way I could beat him was to move it his way when least expected. Always made him question his own methodology to a point where he would limit, hedge out or just flat out take the other side.

I had him chase his tail right into the poor house. Guy was sharp as a tack capping games and I beat him by messing with his strengths and playing on his weaknesses.

Had an old Italian-Armenian guy show me that trick.

Coiner hanging -7 would have brought every whale ML player from here to oblivion into the picture. See Brock Landers. We both know those types are killing every full score line out there right now.

[No coincidences]

Crazy business. I had a guy once and the only way I could beat him was to move it his way when least expected. Always made him question his own methodology to a point where he would limit, hedge out or just flat out take the other side.

I had him chase his tail right into the poor house. Guy was sharp as a tack capping games and I beat him by messing with his strengths and playing on his weaknesses.

Had an old Italian-Armenian guy show me that trick.

Coiner hanging -7 would have brought every whale ML player from here to oblivion into the picture. See Brock Landers. We both know those types are killing every full score line out there right now.

LOL. Always appreciate your stories.

I guess you're right and lord knows the big ML's have been hitting like crazy this year (still around 82% in college football for favorites), but I still think Brock would be more apt to go big on -1 than -7. I'm sure he hammered NIU tonight. He's not smart enough to out-think himself, if you know what I'm saying.

[billysink]

LOL. Always appreciate your stories.

I guess you're right and lord knows the big ML's have been hitting like crazy this year (still around 82% in college football for favorites), but I still think Brock would be more apt to go big on -1 than -7. I'm sure he hammered NIU tonight. He's not smart enough to out-think himself, if you know what I'm saying.

Don't kid yourself on that guy. Not a capper by any stretch but he is definitely not short on brains. DEFCON material.

[No coincidences]

Don't kid yourself on that guy. Not a capper by any stretch but he is definitely not short on brains. DEFCON material.

The "new" Brock Landers, I agree to a certain extent. That's because he's being fed plays by guys much sharper than him.

More than one way to shear a sheep, so I give him credit for at least wising up and deferring to others. Plus, college football is the place to be if you're going to lay heavy chalk. Can't deny that anymore. It's not just a trend.

[dynamite140]

No Coins a degenerate gambler. All these years on the forum and didn't learn anything not that there is much to learn from this forum since most of the stuff here is garbage except some stuff in the handicapper think tank. Funny when he says he is cashing out his balance which is he says is 2k which is what i previously had expected a long time ago for a degenerate like him. Action junkie is too nice of a word to call him. Theres nothing wrong with losing money when you first start out and then you learn and fix your mistakes on why your capping is not working but this guy just think everything is line movement this and line movement that. Clown probably didn't even know the value of a half point, his capping was basically that line seems off or fishy. Now theres nothing wrong with thinking that when you first start out... but when that is how you cap games since you started and never change, you basically a dart thrower and a failure. If you ask him why he likes a team +3.5 and ask him how much value it has over +1.5, he couldn't even show you the expected value of his edge on getting +3.5 vs +1.5 using math. Then again most of you degenerates on this forum can't do this either excpet the few ones on handicapper tank. I bet no coin never visited that forum b/c any question ppl asked there and he looked, it would look like another lanugage to him.


He basically the Tony Bigcharles of sportbetting. Trying to grow his roll and just fail miserably. Betting $10-$20 a game and then going big on a $80 wager and quitting b/c of the last play of a game. Of course had he won, this thread wouldn't been created of course. If he had any time of bank roll management, one game never hurts you assuming you been betting for some time and this degenerate has been betting for the last few years already. Not like this guy just started out and made this mistake but he been betting 20 dollars a game forever it seems. Clown saw his bankroll go from 2200 to 2020 and said i had enough no more.


Just so sad and pathetic. If there is one person to not learn from in sportsbetting is no coincidences, the idiot that bets 20 dollars a game and thats his bet size ever since he came to this forum 3 years ago. Fool never learned and thats why his bankroll is basically 2k the whole time. And 2k basically a joke if you want to consider it a bankroll for sportsbetting. No coin basically was in the microstakes for 3 years and never got out of it.

[Sam Odom]

dynamite140

[Sam Odom]

Just so sad and pathetic.

That is sorta hard... Too hard

Sammy thought NoCoin's retirement was more like this...

.

[No coincidences]

No Coins a degenerate gambler. All these years on the forum and didn't learn anything not that there is much to learn from this forum since most of the stuff here is garbage except some stuff in the handicapper think tank. Funny when he says he is cashing out his balance which is he says is 2k which is what i previously had expected a long time ago for a degenerate like him. Action junkie is too nice of a word to call him. Theres nothing wrong with losing money when you first start out and then you learn and fix your mistakes on why your capping is not working but this guy just think everything is line movement this and line movement that. Clown probably didn't even know the value of a half point, his capping was basically that line seems off or fishy. Now theres nothing wrong with thinking that when you first start out... but when that is how you cap games since you started and never change, you basically a dart thrower and a failure. If you ask him why he likes a team +3.5 and ask him how much value it has over +1.5, he couldn't even show you the expected value of his edge on getting +3.5 vs +1.5 using math. Then again most of you degenerates on this forum can't do this either excpet the few ones on handicapper tank. I bet no coin never visited that forum b/c any question ppl asked there and he looked, it would look like another lanugage to him.


He basically the Tony Bigcharles of sportbetting. Trying to grow his roll and just fail miserably. Betting $10-$20 a game and then going big on a $80 wager and quitting b/c of the last play of a game. Of course had he won, this thread wouldn't been created of course. If he had any time of bank roll management, one game never hurts you assuming you been betting for some time and this degenerate has been betting for the last few years already. Not like this guy just started out and made this mistake but he been betting 20 dollars a game forever it seems. Clown saw his bankroll go from 2200 to 2020 and said i had enough no more.


Just so sad and pathetic. If there is one person to not learn from in sportsbetting is no coincidences, the idiot that bets 20 dollars a game and thats his bet size ever since he came to this forum 3 years ago. Fool never learned and thats why his bankroll is basically 2k the whole time. And 2k basically a joke if you want to consider it a bankroll for sportsbetting. No coin basically was in the microstakes for 3 years and never got out of it.

Two grand-plus wasn't my bankroll, moron. That was my profits from the last year of gambling, and that is what I cashed out. Not bad for $20 per unit.

I've said before that if you tailed me at $100 a unit (the purported "average" wager for most), you'd be up $10,000+ for the year. All documented plays at SBR.

The Auburn/Georgia game didn't "hurt" me. It did, however, mark the final play during a really shitty streak of three weeks or so where I went from +140 to +100 units in the last 14 months. So I quit while I was ahead, just in time for the holidays.

Again, only at SBR can I post every play I make, be up 100 cumulative units all tracked and accounted for, then have someone come along and claim I have "learned nothing" and "failed miserably." Unbelievable, yet not surprising at all.

[Sam Odom]

NoCoin , Sammy got your back... dynamite is being unfair

The Auburn/Georgia game didn't "hurt" me.

But here... you aint being honest! That game broke your back... Like being thrown off a horse... You did NOT get back on

[dynamite140]

It doesn't matter if 2k was your bankroll. 2k or 5k is basically the same thing. The only moron here is you. You're the degenerate gambler betting 20 dollars for 3 years and have nothing to show for. And $2000 is basically nothing. And LOL at anyone tail you for 100 dollars a unit they would be up 10k. Wow 10k profit for 14 months. If you think that is a good amount of money then you are basically a loser which you already are.


Look at the amount of hours you look at line movement everyday and then calculate that to your hourly rate. You basically making between -0.07 to 0.03 an hour when looking at line movmeent 12 hours a day and then use another 1 minute to post a thread on does anyone know why the total moved from 201 to 202 and if anyone knows. Then create stupid threads on why a game was rigged b/c you lost the game.


If anyone was up 100 units, they would increase their bankroll bet size by the time they are up 50 units. You on the other hand bet 20 dollars a game and basically just stuck in the microstakes. Then again you have small bettor syndrome SBS so theres nothing i can say more about that.


What have you learned? All you have done is look at line movement and play contrarian and think that is the way to go. You dont even know numbers. Do you know scoring efficiency or how much a 1/2 point is worth in a half in an nba game from 101 to 101.5 and how much that half is worth? Nope but you will throw out a number that you think is right just like how you look at a line and say its off but dont have the numbers to back it up.


You didn't even know what a headfake was last time when relating to line movement.


You basically the tony bigcharles of sportsbetting.

[King Mayan]