I know this is stupid but explain to me why this craps "system" wont work

[bettilimbroke999]

Okay I was playin craps the other day and I was lookin at bets and thinking maybe a progression system could work

Take the any craps bet...it pays 7 to 1...the true odds are 8 to 1 but think about this for a second and explain to me why this wont work

Okay there are 36 possible rolls and 4 of them are craps so on average there will be a craps every 9 rolls in the long run

Lets say you do a progression for 9 rolls 1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8+9 (9th roll is craps in this example) well you lost 1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8 = 36 before you won 63 on the 9th roll for a net profit of 27

I know this is stupid and Im missing the math somewhere but explain it to me

[Sam Odom]

I know this is stupid...

Not stupid but ignorant ... Vig is way too high on 'any craps'

Not even commenting on a progression system

[Kaabee]

it won't work because of large losing streaks. let's say you lose 25 straight. you are down 325. on 26 you win back 182. you aren't always going to win 1 out of 9.

[bettilimbroke999]

Not stupid but ignorant ... Vig is way too high

Not even commenting on a progression system

This is just one example there are tons of other less vig bets at craps in fact the pass line is lowest vig in the casino...I just find progression systems interesting bc they give you tons of bets and at the casino thats a good thing with a low chance of loss

[Sam Odom]

For 'fun' meaning: long time at the table and free drinks try...

Dont pass 'Oscar Grind' and only allow a single shooter (one person) to beat you 4x. Just wait for the next shooter

[Kindred]

nevermind thought you were trying to use a martingale double down until you win system.

[bettilimbroke999]

because you aren't always going to lose the first 8 and win the 9th.

Okay lets shorten it 1+2+3+4 (craps on 5th roll), you lost 10 before winning 35

Lets lengthen it 1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8+9+10+11+12+13+15+16 (craps on 17th roll), you lost 122 before winning 119 for a net loss of 3 bucks...so it has to go basically TWICE the expected number of rolls for you to even lose anything and even then you've only lost 3 bucks...on top of that by eliminating 4 of the 6 worthless craps numbers (2,3,11,12) you have probably made some money on your place bets

[pulledclear]

Dead as a hammer.

[Kaabee]

long losing streaks kill progressions just as they kill martingales.

[bettilimbroke999]

Not sure how you came up with -36 for the 8 losses, might be the problem there or maybe I just don't get what you're saying.

You can't beat the house if they have the edge on a bet, no matter how you try. Also you'll go broke really really fast using a progressive betting system on a 7-1 event. Even a 50-50 coinflip you'll end up making huge bets on losing streaks, at 7-1 you would need bill gates money to survive a losing streak

I disagree....taking a progression bet should ONLY be made on a good odds bet...bc you only have to go up a dollar each time bc when it hits you're getting paid 7 to 1 not even money like a 50/50 bet which requires doubling your bet (very quickly gets out of hand)

The 8 losses are dollar bet (first roll) + dollar so 2 bucks bet (2nd roll) + dollar so 3 bet on 3rd roll etc

1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8 = 36....9th roll with 9 bucks on it pays 63 so you won 27 bucks

[Kaabee]

losing 50 in a row is not far-fatched on a 1 in 9 shot.

[bettilimbroke999]

long losing streaks kill progressions just as they kill martingales.

Would have to be a very long losing streak of 17 rolls to even lose 3 bucks

[Sam Odom]

I disagree....taking a progression bet should ONLY be made on a good odds bet...bc you only have to go up a dollar each time bc when it hits you're getting paid 7 to 1 not even money like a 50/50 bet which requires doubling your bet (very quickly gets out of hand)

using that 'logic' why not do this on Roulette... get 35-1

[Kaabee]

losing 17 in a row would be commonplace. 1 in 7.4 chance.

[DoYouNotGetIT]

Bet don't pass line and odds. Most manipulate the dice to go to 7 instead of their number. Just leave if the table is good, but I have scene this stuff a thousand times. Most tables are garbage.

Craps is always a bad gambling sport. You will eventually lose more than you win unless you practice manipulating dice. As long as your not sliding the dice onto 2,3,11 or 12 the casino won't be able to prosecute you and probably won't care because most people are betting for the pass line.

People buy/place numbers so the casino loves to see 7s.

[Kaabee]

every 360 tries you will lose 50 in a row. win 51 and you are down 918 units for that try. these streaks happen and they will break you.

[bettilimbroke999]

losing 50 in a row is not far-fatched on a 1 in 9 shot.

The odds of such are a 1/4 of 1%...to say that 400-1 is not far-fetched is a little optimistic

Rolling a craps in 17 rolls will happen 86.5% of the time and only cost 3 bucks if it takes til 17th roll...take into consideration if you wait a couple of crapless rolls and the odds are even lower

$$$$$....IN....BANK

[Kaabee]

let's put it this way. the odds of being ahead after an infinite number of rolls is exactly 0.

[Kaabee]

and if you are going to use a losing system at least find a bet that doesn't have an 11% house edge lol.

[Sam Odom]

...take into consideration if you wait a couple of crapless rolls and the odds are even lower

Sammy hopes you are NOT serious

[Kaabee]

Sammy hopes you are NOT serious

we tried to save him.

[DoYouNotGetIT]

The odds of such are a 1/4 of 1%...to say that 400-1 is not far-fetched is a little optimistic

Rolling a craps in 17 rolls will happen 86.5% of the time and only cost 3 bucks...take into consideration if you wait a couple of crapless rolls and the odds are even lower

$$$$$....IN....BANK

You will win most of the time, but you will lose which will kill all your winnings and buy-in. Also you can get 8 to 1 in Vegas, but true odds are 9 to 1. You can also get a 1000x to 1 odds pass line bet at crap casinos.

Craps is a garbage game unless you buy a crap table and figure out how to manipulate dice. Casino's will also start to kick you out or refuse to let you roll. There aren't that many craps games where people win a lot of money so they will eventually realize it is you.

[greenhippo]

Since you're getting paid 7:1 on craps. I'd only go something like

1:1:1:2:2:2:3: ect on your bet amount.

Win on the 3rd roll you'd be up 5 units. On the 6th you'd be up 7 units. On the 9th you'd be up 6 units. No need to double each time when you're getting 7:1 on a bet.

[greenhippo]

Without going further with the math here, it looks like you'd have to be susceptible to a HUGE roll before you lose big. But maybe I'm missing something.

[DoYouNotGetIT]

Since you're getting paid 7:1 on craps. I'd only go something like

1:1:1:2:2:2:3: ect on your bet amount.

Win on the 3rd roll you'd be up 5 units. On the 6th you'd be up 7 units. On the 9th you'd be up 6 units. No need to double each time when you're getting 7:1 on a bet.

He doesn't understand that with a 8 to 1 and true odds are 9 to 1 that no matter what the gap is too big to overcome. Martingale system does work, but they have table limits to prevent that from happening.

[DoYouNotGetIT]

Only way to beat craps is dice manipulation!!!

[tb1984]

bettil, try your system and tell us the results.

[bettilimbroke999]

losing 17 in a row would be commonplace. 1 in 7.4 chance.

Would cost you about 10 bucks...your wins would overcome this

[bettilimbroke999]

He doesn't understand that with a 8 to 1 and true odds are 9 to 1 that no matter what the gap is too big to overcome. Martingale system does work, but they have table limits to prevent that from happening.

I can imagine some monster bad roll costing you a couple hundred but at craps unless you're on a smokin hot table ur gonna get fuked out of 200 anyway bc everyone presses their terrible odds place bets and just turns their winnings into losses when one seven loses it all

One thing I HATE about craps is the dealers desperate for tips always encourage you to press your bets....for fuks sakes what does a guy rolling a 5 have to do with him rolling it again...unreal these idiots NEVER tip a dealer in a casino fukin scumbags

[tb1984]

Have you tried your system, bettilimbroke?

[DoYouNotGetIT]

I can imagine some monster bad roll costing you a couple hundred but at craps unless you're on a smokin hot table ur gonna get fuked out of 200 anyway bc everyone presses their terrible odds place bets and just turns their winnings into losses when one seven loses it all

One thing I HATE about craps is the dealers desperate for tips always encourage you to press your bets....for fuks sakes what does a guy rolling a 5 have to do with him rolling it again...unreal these idiots NEVER tip a dealer in a casino fukin scumbags

100% agree on tipping a casino dealer. I'm young and starting to realize that even though I still tip, I am starting to move away from it. If I wanna tip give it to the cocktail waitress or sportswriter (ticket writer) will be a lot more thankful for a $25 tip than the dealer. Also cards now are dealt from a machine (any idiot can do that including this one). I agree on always playing pai-gow bonus, three card poker bonus, because those are only way to win big (even though casino makes more money hourly). On craps there is no point in taking more money on pass line odds than buying or placing numbers, because even though you pay no VIG he has to hit that point again before rolling a 7. So as you alluded to betting on the dice roller to roll the point before the 5 other numbers you can buy/place on.

Also to play the hardways is another scam the dealers pull unless you are on don't pass which I often gamble on if it is a 10 or 4, because that is 6 ways I tie/win, 1 way I win big, and 2 ways I can lose. If you are on the pass line hard ways on the point make no sense, because you are just taking away money from yourself, because you have 1 way that can make you money, 2 or 4 ways that cause you to make less money (depends on the point) , and 6 ways you lose.

8 to 1 and 10 to 1 hardways the VIG is 0%.

[NYSportsGuy210]

Martingale systems only work fool proof if you have unlimited time, money and bet limits amounts all at the same time. Even then you mainly win a little or risk losing your house as your two possible outcomes.

[Gee]

let's put it this way. the odds of being ahead after an infinite number of rolls is exactly 0.

This.

[byronbb]

So guys have been trying to hammer out 1% in blackjack for decades with incredibly complex card-counting schemes but they failed to figure out this basic mechanical system at craps???

[bettilimbroke999]

This "system" is really part of a larger discussion on how to make your money LAST at a casino and have a good time

Lets say you go with 200 bucks and win 7 out of 8 times and lose the 200 the other time...you've done pretty well imo and the casino sees you throwin 10 bucks on any craps all the time and thinks you're a gambling degen and sends you all kinds of free shit

Normally you buyin with a 100 at craps and dont even get a turn to roll before the shooters 7 out your 100 to the casino, also the casino uses what I call unfair payouts to absolutely rape normal bettors

If you bet 5 bucks on a 4 or 10 it pays 10 true odds - 1 vig = 10% house advantage....however if you bet 25 it pays 50 true odds - 1 vig = 2% house advantage....how can a casino penalize ppl 5x vig for not betting a fortune....you start throwing 50 (25 each on the 4 and 10) and watch the shooter 7 out so fast itll make your head spin but you didnt want to give the house 5x the advantage by only betting 5 bucks each

Sick policies like this are why you should NEVER tip dealers...the casino is out to scam you at every turn

Think of the best ways to make your money LAST at the casino...in the end you will lose money at all their games but what entertainment did you get in return...get your free great meals, your freeplays, your free rooms etc and drag that 100 or 200 you take with you on and on and on....start betting their 50 on the 4 and 10s and watch that 200 gone in about 5 minutes and the casino wont give you shit as they see a bum that played 5 mins and hit the door