Sharp Line move?

sergfro · 10-05-05, 04:41 PM

usually half point doesnt mean much

sergfro · 10-05-05, 04:41 PM

SHARP was that South Florida/Louisville game where 80% were on louisville and line dropped 2.5

BuddyBear · 10-05-05, 04:48 PM

True sergfro...but we are talking about a very important number here at 7...there is a big difference between getting this at +7 or at +6.5.

pags11 · 10-06-05, 03:15 AM

I'm on NW here...

jjgold · 10-06-05, 06:08 AM

I would not put much faith in those site that say 70% is one one side. If you do not have access to actuall sportsbook volume it is very flawed.

spanky · 10-06-05, 08:59 AM

re:sportsinsights.com

do you have to be a paying subscriber to view those stats.i like to go against public and that might come in handy.

jjgold · 10-06-05, 11:24 AM

I think so but they can make up any data

EBone · 10-06-05, 11:33 AM

I love the data they have on this site. I just don't know if I can trust it. If that data is factual, then this is a good source of info. How can we prove this data is factual? My guess is that there isn't a way to prove it for people like me because I don't know the right people.

E

BuddyBear · 10-06-05, 12:56 PM

sportsinsights.com is a really good site in my opinion. The information that I am using is free. There are package deals if you are interested but for what I am doing all you need to do is sign up and get the basic membership which is free. Occasionally they'll send you emails and stuff....but never any spam.

In terms of their data, I think it is high quality. Is 70% correct the true percentage, probably not but are the majority on Wisconsin...probably. In order to evaluate their data collection method you have to take a research methods course or at least be familiar with sampling techniques. Fortunately I am...that's why i have a lot of confidence in their data. It's a lot like opinion polling where the true population mean likely falls 3-4 percentages from the one given (i.e. president support is 46% +/- 3 which means there is a 95% chance that the true population mean is between 43-49%). Plus you need to have some background in what sampling error is and what measurment error is. Sportsinsights operates in a similar fashion to the way opinion polls are conducted.

I do have some criticisms though. (1) they only sample 6 books and those are generally considered high quality books. They need more variance in their book selections to give us a better idea. (2) most underdog players wait till the final few minutes, not always, but generally. Therefore the percentages reported on sportsinsights may reflect an early week favorite bias.

Just my opinion though.

jjgold · 10-06-05, 04:17 PM

I would like to know where the data is and maybe only based on like 10 bets

Are they getting real time betting data every time a bet comes in???

No way