2 NCAAF and 2 NFL for this week

[billysink]

Texas State +13 -118 @ U La La. Weird move stuck on 12.5 grabbed a half to cover the 13.
Missouri @ Vandy over 56 -106
Dallas Cowboys +7.5 -113
Carolina @ Arizona under 42.5 -114

Will provide some insight tomorrow and discuss if prompted. Am watching the weather this weekend with great interest to prompt additional play.

Because I have mentioned weather that does not give Carper or any one else that sits to pee here reason to move this thread to the Saloon. You girls grab an umbrella and mind you wigs if necessary. Much appreciated. Buy you all a fukkin mint cappuccino some day.

[2daBank]

i get the dal play billy but my theory when i think a team can play with den is to just play the over,,feel like if dal covers it goes over for sure, even if they dont cover can still go over so to me just more ways to win with the total..i have it something like 34-30 den so i agree it too many points just feel like more margin for error with the total...

def like that that mizzou/vandy total..

been trying to figure out wtf to do with panthers/zona, like both teams and was wanting to play panthers off the bye but dont love them as short favs traveling to zona..under makes sense, both defenses pretty good, i will look at it some more as i havnt made a number for that 1 yet...

have to just take your word for tex st and ride along cause no clue here...

glad to see you posting...gl

[Easy-Rider 66]

Like both NFL plays. GL.

[Smittyy]

Like the carolina/arizona to go under as well. great carolina defense against a shaky arizona offense I see this game going in carolina's favor 13-6 kind of similar to the carolina/ seattle game a few weeks ago

[BigDeem5]

Billsinker, gaining some respect posting plays in the big boy play's pen..

Good fukin luck, sinker.

Fuking guy is blade sharp is what I hear, let's see if he produces or is like Nick Swisher, all fuking yap and no game.

[Louisvillekid1]

Saloon

[Huckleberry Pig]

Because I have mentioned weather that does not give Carper or any one else that sits to pee here reason to move this thread to the Saloon.

im dyin over here, that's great

[Vegas39]

Saloon

Loshak will probably do it again

[Louisvillekid1]

Think it's a good spot for Vandy here

[billysink]

In no paritcular order.......


Dallas +7.5 -113

We are finally going to get to see what Manning and Denver does on the road against some decent competition. I can preface what I say with my thought that Peyton is one of my favorite players and I don't really think that way. What he has done to come back as good as he has is one of the greatest accomplishments ever in my mind. Denver and Manning however are going to face a real good pass rush on the road for the first time this year. They have played only one road test against the Giants and they flat out suck. Folks here are quick to forget the absence of Ryan Clady and that Manny Ramirez had not started a game at center until this year. This is Denver's first road tilt without Clady and it comes against the complex pass rush scheme that Dallas employs. I get that Manning does not take many hits but Dallas may force him to release to a check much earlier than he has had to so far. Hopefully Morris Claiborne does not start at right corner this week and Orlando Scandrick draws Welker. He has played well against him in the past when Welker was a Patriot.

On defense I see cracks in the armor of the Denver secondary, a unit which is the weakness on the team so far and needs Champ back in the fold. Granted most teams have been forced to throw a lot into prevent which will make it look worse on paper. Again lets see what they do in a true road test. Romo has played pretty well this year and the O-line quite well in both push and protection overall.

As mentioned the only road game this year for Denver has been against the NY Giants, a game in which the Giants had a whopping 10 first downs by penalty. The aura built by the Bronco team and Manning has been built on home games against less than stellar competition. I think they are a real good team none the less but this is a road game against better and I get a half point to cover a TD. That tick may fall off the horse pretty soon as it is now -120

Banker, who is one of my more read guys here favors the over here rather than side. I can see it for sure but the old school guy I am cannot bring myself to play anything over 50. That number has crept up over the years but I still gotta cap it somewhere.

[Louisvillekid1]

Nice write up,

Peyton Manning is the best defensive player on the Broncos, prob in the lead for defensive player of the year up to this point. They only thing that scares me is that Jason Garfunkel will once again get pass happy and not pound the ground to truly test this top ranked rush defense. The pass rush vs the Broncos O line is a very strong angle here and your reasoning is why sharp money is on the Cowboys this week. Public of course will be on Broncos and can't really fault them as they have been an Action Reverse Bookie fukkin machine up to this point.

Look at 2 stats when this game is over and I Believe you'll have your ATS Winner...

DeMarco Murray Rush Attempts O/u 22.
Romo's 3rd down %.

[Smoke]

Sinker swim

[DoYouNotGetIT]

I don't see a bad pick. Isn't like the person who said Dolphins and Ravens game was going over 44 (highest score I can fathom for that game is 49 points).

[wildcorndog]

I hate the Denver play. Shows what a dumbass you are

[BIGDAY]

[jjgold]

Dallas Cowboys +7.5 -113
Carolina @ Arizona under 42.5 -114

Those two I agree with..the others ones no idea

[billysink]

Texas State +13- 118 @ U LA La

I had to ask myself why a team ranked 25 spots higher in the NCAAFB FEI overall rankings than its opponent was a 12.5 point underdog on the road. I looked, looked and looked some more and could not find anything to substantiate this spread. 12.5 as a number means less than this post so I made a small purchase here.

I don't know how many of you watched Texas State play Texas Tech at Tech, I happened by the game for about a,quarter and a half. I recall that the State defense was pretty active and good against the run, forced some bad passes and picked off Tech quarterbacks 3 times. The total yards were pretty lopsided but Tech threw the ball 66 times in that one.
Looking at other defensive efforts so far show a real good effort last week against a top flight offense in Wyoming as well. The front 7 on that team are pretty good having watched a bit of that one as well

La La is a pretty good offensive team in my impression. Terrance Broadway is a good QB, I remember him last year when he took over half way through the year and watch him gunsling a bunch. Kid has no fear and is a definite two dimensional threat.

Texas State on offense are not quick strike, fairly vanilla until last week but have made a change at QB. Freshman Tyler Jones took over last week for Tyler Arndt who is junk and went 14-18 against Wyoming who is better defensively be a small margin than Lafayette. Jones also rushed for near 60 yards. It is this change that may or may not break me here but I am banking on an improved offensive effort with Jones being much more two dimensional than Arndt who is as mobile as a fukkin sidewalk. Love these mid season upgrades as they are just hard as hell to prepare for in a weeks time. Another note is that State has controlled the clock extremely well this year at over 34 minutes a game. Lafayette conversely has trouble getting off the field.

La La's defense over the first 4 has been pretty La La, they are near the bottom of the barrel in many national rankings. Granted against some fairly decent competition but they ain't that good and are an offense first team

Give me the much better defense here a ball control offense with a new wrinkle and 13 points. I struggle to find anything here to get me on the Lafayette side. If anyone can chime in with what I may have missed please do.

I could use all the help I can get.

[billysink]

I hate the Denver play. Shows what a dumbass you are

Absolutely pal. I am without question one of the fukkin dumbest fukks on this site. I was trying to hide that from erryone but you got me.

[Hanson]

good luck

[Scratch 23]

Texas State +13- 118 @ U LA La

I had to ask myself why a team ranked 25 spots higher in the NCAAFB FEI overall rankings than its opponent was a 12.5 point underdog on the road. I looked, looked and looked some more and could not find anything to substantiate this spread. 12.5 as a number means less than this post so I made a small purchase here.

I don't know how many of you watched Texas State play Texas Tech at Tech, I happened by the game for about a,quarter and a half. I recall that the State defense was pretty active and good against the run, forced some bad passes and picked off Tech quarterbacks 3 times. The total yards were pretty lopsided but Tech threw the ball 66 times in that one.
Looking at other defensive efforts so far show a real good effort last week against a top flight offense in Wyoming as well. The front 7 on that team are pretty good having watched a bit of that one as well

La La is a pretty good offensive team in my impression. Terrance Broadway is a good QB, I remember him last year when he took over half way through the year and watch him gunsling a bunch. Kid has no fear and is a definite two dimensional threat.

Texas State on offense are not quick strike, fairly vanilla until last week but have made a change at QB. Freshman Tyler Jones took over last week for Tyler Arndt who is junk and went 14-18 against Wyoming who is better defensively be a small margin than Lafayette. Jones also rushed for near 60 yards. It is this change that may or may not break me here but I am banking on an improved offensive effort with Jones being much more two dimensional than Arndt who is as mobile as a fukkin sidewalk. Love these mid season upgrades as they are just hard as hell to prepare for in a weeks time. Another note is that State has controlled the clock extremely well this year at over 34 minutes a game. Lafayette conversely has trouble getting off the field.

La La's defense over the first 4 has been pretty La La, they are near the bottom of the barrel in many national rankings. Granted against some fairly decent competition but they ain't that good and are an offense first team

Give me the much better defense here a ball control offense with a new wrinkle and 13 points. I struggle to find anything here to get me on the Lafayette side. If anyone can chime in with what I may have missed please do.

I could use all the help I can get.

SSShhhhhhh!! One of the best under the radar cover teams this yr. They weren't too shabby last yr spotting a 7-5 ats. Quality win at home last week holding the high flying cowboys to 21. The week before they held the klingsbury red raiders to 33(sounds like alot but its really not, not with the way they score).The bolded above scares me a little, but think the Bobcats are well worth the shot with 13.

[Gamble32jn]

Has anyone watched dallas play??? They have played crap teams. No way I would go against Denver. Manning is on a insane run and I would say bet Denver or stay away. They aint showed no slowing up yet and dallas's WR's are a little banged up. Just dont see Dallas covering unless its a miracle but hey Romo is 100% or 100% off. He has no happy medium.

Just dont see a play on dallas here sorry guys

[Louisvillekid1]

Broadway is talented , excellent write up

ill post more on game if I can walk out of this bar at some point

will be tailgating Louisville temple by 8 am tomorrow @ the Linc

[ShogunRua]

Nice write ups. Good luck this weekend.

[billysink]

Missouri @ Vanderbilt over 56

A couple of well rounded teams that have a balanced run vs. pass attack ratios precluding the opposing defenses from stacking the box, very high completion percentages, real good yards per completion numbers, good success rates on 3rd downs. Vanderbilt may be a little less recognized for their quick strike ability but Jordan Matthew is one of the best receivers in the country and a legitimate 1st round pick.

What has me on this one is the inability of both teams defensively on passing downs. Deep in the S&P defensive numbers are efficiency ratings on passing downs. Missouri ranks 96th and Vandy 102nd nationally in a rating of 2ne down and more than 8 or 3rd and 4th down with more than 5 yards to go to move the chains.

Against two high efficiency passing games that may not work. To lend more depth to that, Missouri ranks 15th and Vandy 35th in third down conversion percentage. Conversely Missouri ranks 78th and Vandy a miserable 100th in third down success on defense.

Logic dictates if you can move the chains you should score. Two balanced offenses here should see to that.

A bit of a step up in class for Missouri over previous games played here but Ole Miss and South Carolina have already spread for 500 yards on Vandy. That alleviates most of my concerns here.

[Vegas39]

Good stuff Billy. GL this weekend

[billysink]

Billsinker, gaining some respect posting plays in the big boy play's pen..

Good fukin luck, sinker.

Fuking guy is blade sharp is what I hear, let's see if he produces or is like Nick Swisher, all fuking yap and no game.

Glad I am gaining respect kid, something I have always dreamed of.

All yap and no game is a Cleveland thing Deemer.

Not from Cleveland. Haven't been there since I used to run the boat up to the flats years ago.

Deemer hows your pick thread going pal?

[Ra77er]

Excellent writeups and insight to your plays Billy. Thanks for the effort man.

[Vinnie Paz]

Sink you sold me over. Got a few pennies on state straight up, +250.

[billysink]

Sink you sold me over. Got a few pennies on state straight up, +250.

Good luck VP. I see that line has dropped 1.5 since this time yesterday.

[2daBank]

I hate the Denver play. Shows what a dumbass you are

good news for anyone on them as id say you the woirst capper on this site, that is stating you cap gms though which clearly now the case....why ae you still here? ;su gm broke you so you just air betting again? not as if you had any respect around here anyway but calling one of the best posters on this site a "dumbass" just further proof what a fukkin idiot you are..you been exposed sp much think it time you changed tags and started over moron..

[jjgold]

Billy use game numbers please in ncaaf

Thanks man

[billysink]

Billy use game numbers please in ncaaf

Thanks man

Rotation?

[billysink]

Hanky what were you looking for here.

Thanks

[Smoke]

Billy lets throw a slumber party

[The Giant]

Hanky what were you looking for here.

Thanks

I'm sure he was just looking for the rotation numbers on these college games.

Good luck this season, Billy.