Liriano is up around 160 innings pitch. a total he has not reached since 2010.
despite all of that he has still been rock solid with an FIP of 2.92, lower than his ERA of 3.02, has an outstanding ground ball rate of 50%. while striking out nearly 9.11 per 9 innings.
here is where the concern is. he is walking almost 4 batters per nine on the year, now that is just on the year. You can't stress enough in MLB, on pitchers, "stress pitches" (no pun intended) which he will be throwing a ton tonight. The Reds are great at working deep counts and fouling pitches off, this could really take its toll on Liriano whos arm quite possibly could be in deep water and not sure of what he's going to get out of it, now you add on the pressure situation of so many stress pitches. and you on the fact hes walked 8 hitters in his last 3 starts, it becomes even more concerning.
he's been flirting with disaster all year long with a 78% strand rate, .290 BABIP and a HUGE 25% LD%. so while his surface stats look GREAT...when u look deeper he certainly can be had.
I'm going with the fresher arm in Cueto and the more experienced ball club in the Reds who will not let the pressure mount on the them and take over ABs, like the young Pirates will. When you are as young as the Pirates are, in the post season, more often not, u need to lose first to learn how to win. the Reds have been here before and that is huge advantage. I expect the Pirates to press in the batters box and Cueto to get ahead in the count early and put guys away while Liriano is consistenly working deep counts, struggling to put hitters away.
that being the difference in the game. It's been a great year for Pittsburgh but comes to an end tonight. Reds +129
despite all of that he has still been rock solid with an FIP of 2.92, lower than his ERA of 3.02, has an outstanding ground ball rate of 50%. while striking out nearly 9.11 per 9 innings.
here is where the concern is. he is walking almost 4 batters per nine on the year, now that is just on the year. You can't stress enough in MLB, on pitchers, "stress pitches" (no pun intended) which he will be throwing a ton tonight. The Reds are great at working deep counts and fouling pitches off, this could really take its toll on Liriano whos arm quite possibly could be in deep water and not sure of what he's going to get out of it, now you add on the pressure situation of so many stress pitches. and you on the fact hes walked 8 hitters in his last 3 starts, it becomes even more concerning.
he's been flirting with disaster all year long with a 78% strand rate, .290 BABIP and a HUGE 25% LD%. so while his surface stats look GREAT...when u look deeper he certainly can be had.
I'm going with the fresher arm in Cueto and the more experienced ball club in the Reds who will not let the pressure mount on the them and take over ABs, like the young Pirates will. When you are as young as the Pirates are, in the post season, more often not, u need to lose first to learn how to win. the Reds have been here before and that is huge advantage. I expect the Pirates to press in the batters box and Cueto to get ahead in the count early and put guys away while Liriano is consistenly working deep counts, struggling to put hitters away.
that being the difference in the game. It's been a great year for Pittsburgh but comes to an end tonight. Reds +129
