Breaking down tonight's MLB's Play In Game (TB v. Tex)

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  • stevenash
    Moderator
    • 01-17-11
    • 65641

    #1
    Breaking down tonight's MLB's Play In Game (TB v. Tex)
    Vegas showing Price a little too much respect.
    I would have set the line the other way, Texas -115, or even man to man 'pick.
    Over looks tempting as well, at first glance, I like the over, and Texas, let's break it down together, shall we.

    Mon 9/30 981 Tampa Bay Rays D Price - L <input id="editx" name="S1_0" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> <select id="altS1_0" name="altS1_0" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"><option value="0" selected="">-1½ +135</option><option value="1">-2½ +205</option><option value="4">-1 +104</option></select> <input id="editx" name="M1_0" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> -117 Listed <input id="editx" name="L1_0" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> <select id="altL1_0" name="altL1_0" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"><option value="0" selected="">o7½ -105</option><option value="1">o7 -140</option><option value="2">o8 +115</option><option value="3">o6½ -174</option><option value="4">o8½ +131</option></select>
    8:05PM 982 Texas Rangers M Perez - L <input id="editx" name="S2_0" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> <select id="altS2_0" name="altS2_0" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"><option value="0" selected="">+1½ -155</option><option value="1">+2½ -245</option><option value="4">+1 -124</option></select> <input id="editx" name="M2_0" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> +107 Listed <input id="editx" name="L2_0" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> <select id="altL2_0" name="altL2_0" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"><option value="0" selected="">u7½ -115</option><option value="1">u7 +120</option><option value="2">u8 -135</option><option value="3">u6½ +154</option><option value="4">u8½ -151</option></select>
    Both teams finished 91-71 on the season.

    Texas at home is a good, not great 46-35 (.567) great would be (.667)
    Rays away are a good, not great 40-41 (.493) great would be (>.500)

    David Price: TB Starter
    Rock solid across the board numbers this season:

    9-8 overall 3.39 ERA, 1.11. WH/IP ratio pitching in the big stick AL East division is outstading
    Great K ratio 147/177 IP stingy on the walks allowed, (26) and stingy on the home runs allowed (16) 1 allowed every 11 innings pitched.

    Price on the road 2013: Rock solid
    7-3 3.21 ERA 1.12 WH/IP ratio

    Last 4 starts
    Good, not great.
    Very sharp against the Yankees last start out
    7 IP 6H 8K 2ER W

    Shaky against Baltimore 9/20
    5IP 9H 4K 2ER ND

    Shaky against Minnesota 9/15
    6IP 6H 4K 2ER (3BB) ND-Loss (as a -220 favorite)

    Outstanding in a 2-0 loss to Boston 9/10
    Not his fault he got no support
    8IP 3H 2ER 9K ND-Loss

    Texas v. Price
    Rangers lifetime are 4-1 against Price:
    5.98 ERA (not good)

    Andrus 6-17 .353, with 5 BB's makes OBA sky high .522
    Beltre 8-23 .348 with a home run
    Cruz *is eligible for this game* 6-12 .500 2 homers, with 2 walks makes 0BA .577
    Rios 10-23 .435, 2 homers, with 2 walks makes OBA .500

    Overall: Not good
    Jim Adduci - - - -
    Elvis Andrus .353 17 0 4
    Jeff Baker - - - -
    Adrian Beltre .348 23 1 4
    Engel Beltre - - - -
    Lance Berkman - - - -
    Joey Butler - - - -
    Robinson Chirinos - - - -
    Nelson Cruz .500 12 2 4
    Craig Gentry .222 9 0 0
    Ian Kinsler .167 18 1 2
    Leonys Martin - - - -
    Mitch Moreland - - - -
    David Murphy .200 10 0 2
    A Pierzynski.J. .200 10 0 0
    Jurickson Profar - - - -
    Alex Rios .500 16 2 7
    Adam Rosales .200 5 0 0
    Geovany Soto .500 2 0 0

    Texas Starter: Martin Perez (L)

    First full year in the show
    Across the board numbers: OK

    10-5 on the season in 19 games, all starts.
    ERA 3.55 WH/IP ratio 1.34 (League averages are 3.99 and 1.32)

    Not enough data versus TB hitters.

    Ron Washington has said all hands on deck, as Garza and Ogundo are available out of the pen.

    Even though Price is the better of the two starters, I am fading him, as Cruz make that dangerous line up even more dangerous, couple that with the fact Texas smacks Price hard.

    Texas with the Garza and Ogundo in the pen is a plus, TB does not have enough fire power to go toe to toe with Texas bats, and I don't like the fact Price has a penchant for getting into and out of trouble.

    Play here is Texas PLUS money, and the over 7.5

    Normal size bet 2*
  • Ratpack
    SBR MVP
    • 02-15-12
    • 4133

    #2
    texas wins price hasnt been price recently and the rays havent played as well the last week and texas is hot right now with their offense
    Comment
    • BigDeem5
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 02-26-11
      • 17191

      #3
      Layoff. Tribe Wed
      Comment
      • stevenash
        Moderator
        • 01-17-11
        • 65641

        #4
        Originally posted by Ratpack
        texas wins price hasnt been price recently and the rays havent played as well the last week and texas is hot right now with their offense
        Agreed, and Perez has been razor sharp in his last ten, 7-2 record, 3.26 can not be overlooked.

        TB does hit left handing pitching well though (so does Texas)
        Comment
        • stevenash
          Moderator
          • 01-17-11
          • 65641

          #5
          Originally posted by BigDeem5
          Layoff. Tribe Wed
          Who's getting the rock, Salazar or Kluber?
          Comment
          • whtsox13
            SBR MVP
            • 05-02-12
            • 1401

            #6
            TEX -1, $450 to win $739. Over 7, $350 to win $250. Good luck all!
            Comment
            • stikymess
              SBR MVP
              • 05-19-10
              • 3288

              #7
              Nice write up Steve,

              this time of the year Ron Washington always seems to be out managed, but can't resist Texas at home, plus money.

              Good luck.
              Comment
              • Smoke
                SBR Aristocracy
                • 10-09-09
                • 48111

                #8
                Stevie good write up

                Stevie you gave me goosebumps

                Stevie dont fukk me pally
                Comment
                • stevenash
                  Moderator
                  • 01-17-11
                  • 65641

                  #9
                  Originally posted by whtsox13
                  TEX -1, $450 to win $739. Over 7, $350 to win $250. Good luck all!
                  199355421-1 9/30/13 12:44pm $100.00 $210.00 Pending 9/30/13 8:05pm MLB Baseball 982 Texas Rangers -1½ +210* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Tampa Bay Rays (D Price - L must Start M Perez - L must Start)
                  199355353-1 9/30/13 12:43pm $100.00 $295.00 Pending 2 Team Parlay
                  Pending 9/30/13 8:40pm NFL Football 225 Miami Dolphins/New Orleans Saints Under 48 -110*
                  Pending 9/30/13 8:05pm MLB Baseball 982 Texas Rangers +107* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Tampa Bay Rays (D Price - L must Start M Perez - L must Start)
                  Comment
                  • pavyracer
                    SBR Aristocracy
                    • 04-12-07
                    • 82839

                    #10
                    I'm on Texas. Why? Cause you don't mess with Texas in a one game playoff at home.
                    Comment
                    • stevenash
                      Moderator
                      • 01-17-11
                      • 65641

                      #11
                      Originally posted by pavyracer
                      I'm on Texas. Why? Cause you don't mess with Texas in a one game playoff at home.
                      See? We can get along after all. lol

                      It's by no means a lock, but it's (IMO) the correct play.

                      Best of luck.
                      Comment
                      • wagerjunkie
                        SBR MVP
                        • 08-24-13
                        • 4105

                        #12
                        Nash I'm on over too but first five. My main concern about it though is neither team has faced either starter this year. Yes Texas has had big time success against price in the past but this will be their first look at him this year. Same goes for rays with Perez. That always gives pitcher advantage which worries. Did you factor that in(I'm sure u did) and does it bother u?
                        Comment
                        • stevenash
                          Moderator
                          • 01-17-11
                          • 65641

                          #13
                          Originally posted by wagerjunkie
                          Nash I'm on over too but first five. My main concern about it though is neither team has faced either starter this year. Yes Texas has had big time success against price in the past but this will be their first look at him this year. Same goes for rays with Perez. That always gives pitcher advantage which worries. Did you factor that in(I'm sure u did) and does it bother u?
                          Factored in, and does not bother me.
                          The first five can beat Price in different ways.
                          Andrus walks, steals second, scores on on single is one way.
                          Kinsler can rope a double at any time, or even go yard.
                          Rios and Beltre are bombers, and Nelson Cruz is back.

                          Don't forget, AJP has a good stick too.
                          Comment
                          • innovation
                            SBR Hall of Famer
                            • 01-27-12
                            • 6218

                            #14
                            Getting plus money on Ron Washington to make amends for where he put his club.....I'll pass.

                            Look for Tampa to score first and watch the Rangers pressure mount.

                            Base on Balls give me tampa.
                            Comment
                            • EzekielMowatt
                              SBR High Roller
                              • 08-07-13
                              • 153

                              #15
                              Good write up. Already had action play on TX. Price not in real good form.
                              Comment
                              • docKT
                                SBR Hustler
                                • 12-27-12
                                • 56

                                #16
                                nice write-up.
                                Comment
                                • CHIB
                                  SBR High Roller
                                  • 04-21-12
                                  • 109

                                  #17
                                  Rangers haven't seen Price this year. This is a really big spot for him. Career-defining game. We'll see what this kid is really about.
                                  Comment
                                  • stevenash
                                    Moderator
                                    • 01-17-11
                                    • 65641

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by docKT
                                    nice write-up.
                                    Thanks
                                    Comment
                                    • PAYTON20
                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                      • 02-02-10
                                      • 5217

                                      #19
                                      Great game analysis Nasher

                                      I'm also on Texas. Agree about the opening line being off
                                      Comment
                                      • lakerboy
                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                        • 04-02-09
                                        • 94379

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by pavyracer
                                        I'm on Texas. Why? Cause you don't mess with Texas in a one game playoff at home.

                                        lmao didnt the orioles win in a one game playoff just last year in texas?
                                        Comment
                                        • Smoke
                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                          • 10-09-09
                                          • 48111

                                          #21
                                          Good write up nashy nash
                                          Comment
                                          • Fernburn74
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 09-28-10
                                            • 1643

                                            #22
                                            Texas at -110 now.
                                            Comment
                                            • Darkside Magick
                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                              • 05-28-10
                                              • 12638

                                              #23
                                              Tampa -1.5 (150) Book it!
                                              Comment
                                              • Big Bear
                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                • 11-01-11
                                                • 43253

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by Darkside Magick
                                                Tampa -1.5 (150) Book it!
                                                Why so much love for the Rays?
                                                Comment
                                                • ballstar25
                                                  SBR Hustler
                                                  • 08-12-13
                                                  • 84

                                                  #25
                                                  ^ darkside is sharp TB ROLLLLLS
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Darkside Magick
                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                    • 05-28-10
                                                    • 12638

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by Big Bear
                                                    Why so much love for the Rays?
                                                    This is easy...Texas going to be tight basically playing for Washington job...Maddon better in game manager than wash. Texas rookie pitcher going to give up run...he not Danny Salazar....public pounding Texas....bookies knew that public would pound Down the line so they can snatched the cash when Tb win.

                                                    -1.5 all day
                                                    Comment
                                                    • ShogunRua
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 12-23-09
                                                      • 4668

                                                      #27
                                                      I'm on the Rangers too but it's strictly a homer bet. I would like to add though that people are putting a bit too much weight into Nelly Cruz playing tonight. Guy hasn't played in a MLB game in months, I highly doubt he has any kind of impact (although I hope he does).

                                                      Go Rangers!
                                                      Comment
                                                      • 2daBank
                                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                                        • 01-26-09
                                                        • 88966

                                                        #28
                                                        hate going against nasher but despite Price struggles w tex i still have to take him -107 vs a rookie in a must win.. plus i have the added advantage of one of best managers vs a idiot..
                                                        Comment
                                                        • stevenash
                                                          Moderator
                                                          • 01-17-11
                                                          • 65641

                                                          #29
                                                          @Darkside
                                                          That's one way of looking at it.
                                                          If the kid gets out of the first inning clean, I can see a Texas 2 spot in the bottom of the first.
                                                          Texas hitters do not fear Price.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • 2daBank
                                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                                            • 01-26-09
                                                            • 88966

                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by stevenash
                                                            @Darkside
                                                            That's one way of looking at it.
                                                            If the kid gets out of the first inning clean, I can see a Texas 2 spot in the bottom of the first.
                                                            Texas hitters do not fear Price.
                                                            1st inning def huge for both guys..
                                                            Comment
                                                            • TonyTall
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 08-21-13
                                                              • 3551

                                                              #31
                                                              has cruz been hitting in the minors. pivotal that he is
                                                              Comment
                                                              • stevenash
                                                                Moderator
                                                                • 01-17-11
                                                                • 65641

                                                                #32
                                                                Originally posted by 2daBank
                                                                hate going against nasher but despite Price struggles w tex i still have to take him -107 vs a rookie in a must win.. plus i have the added advantage of one of best managers vs a idiot..
                                                                All good, I wish you good luck.
                                                                This game will not make or break my roll.
                                                                Hardly.
                                                                I respect everybody's reasons why they are on TB
                                                                Comment
                                                                • 2daBank
                                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                                  • 01-26-09
                                                                  • 88966

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by TonyTall
                                                                  has cruz been hitting in the minors. pivotal that he is
                                                                  he actually been playing in independent league or some shit..
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • 2daBank
                                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                                    • 01-26-09
                                                                    • 88966

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Originally posted by stevenash
                                                                    All good, I wish you good luck.
                                                                    This game will not make or break my roll.
                                                                    Hardly.
                                                                    I respect everybody's reasons why they are on TB
                                                                    no doubt,, way more of a degen junkie bet than me unloading on tb.. gl to you as well brother..
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • TonyTall
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 08-21-13
                                                                      • 3551

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Originally posted by 2daBank
                                                                      he actually been playing in independent league or some shit..
                                                                      well hopefully hes seen some 93ish fastballs lately
                                                                      Comment
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