Psuedo-Math Probability Question....dartboard

[pico]

take a close look a the following picture of a dartboard



ignore the bulleye and areas outside of the board. the numbers are half even half odd, but numbers are not placed in even-odd alternative pattern.

you have a bunch of amateur dart (amateur meaning they can't hit the point consistently even if they tried really hard) players in a bar and decided to take turns throwing darts after couple pints of lager.

you and your buddy are sitting at the bar observing those tipsy dart players and decide to make some side wagers on whether the next throw going to hit an even number or an odd number. that is a 50/50 proposition.

now let's consider some additional information is known for the next dart player. would you change your probability assessment based on the following new information?

1) would you increase/decrease your probability for even number if you know the dart player is right handed?
2) would you increase/decrease your probability for even number if you know the dart player is very tall?



i am curious because i am going to make some diogee style capping for all the ncaa bb games this sat and i am right handed, so not sure if i have a systematic bias.

[Deuce]

Make positives favorites and negatives dogs, bulls eye center is a +500+ dog bullseye outter is +200+ dog ML.

[SlickFazzer]

Deuce has the math down pat.

[pico]

repost here because i want to see the different responses between the smart people and the general population.

[pico]

deuce got an ace in math. he should be a politician because he didn't answer the question,

[Deuce]

deuce got an ace in math. he should be a politician because he didn't answer the question,

6'4"+ has an advantage definatly. I see darts go on in bars a lot. Tall guys always seem to win. R vs L handed there is no advantage.

[diogee]

i am curious because i am going to make some diogee style capping for all the ncaa bb games this sat and i am right handed, so not sure if i have a systematic bias.

What the shit is this Pico...you know I use a coin. Not enough time to throw that many darts.

[pico]

i am trying to build some arm muscles, diogee.

[u21c3f6]

If it could be statistically shown that the right handed thrower tended to have his darts land more on the right side of the board, I would bet even. If the tall thrower tended to have his darts land more on the upper part of the board, I would bet even. There are more even numbers on the right side and top half of the board. If there was a tendency for the opposite to happen, I would bet odd.

[ryanspeer2001]

This is all very raw and basic but.

Throw out any of the left or right handed info, there is no statistical advantage. Also we are going to assume the players have similar height and arm length.

The distribution of the odd and even numbers is irrelevent since as long as the board was manufactured correctly both will have a 50/50 shot of being hit not including the bullseye or completely missing the board.

Now lets have some fun with making the line here.

If a standard dart board is 16 inches in diameter it will have an area of ~201 inches.

The bulls eye has a diameter of 1.5 inches = area of ~1.76 inches.

We can derive from your original statement that the dart throwers will throw randomly on the board. With this in mind we can calculate how often one of them should get a bulls eye by divideing the bullseye's area by the boards total area to give us the probability of 1 dart being thrown and hitting the bullseye.

1.76 / 201 = 0.0088

To simplify you should round to the nearest 1000th and multiply by 100 to get a proper percentage.

0.0088 = ~0.009

0.009 * 100 = 0.9%

So out of 1000 dart throws...

494.5 odd
494.5 even
9 bullseyes

The real money making potential would be betting your friend that there will not be a bullseye in X amount of throws since 99.1% of the time it will be odd or even you can set very very juicy lines that will get an action junkie moist in the pants. Such as

Bullseye within 50 Throws +250

Bullseye within 20 Throws +600

Bullseye within 5 Thrwows +1800

Back to Back bullseyes +20000

Two bullseyes within 100 Throws +250

You can make money on this all day.

I will leave example as is but there are other factors you don't mention such as % at which they miss the board.

[reno cool]

I'm no dart player,but wouldn't you think the bullseye would hit more often than any random area of same size on the outer edges of the board? Overlooking a small thing could kill a bookmaker.

[ryanspeer2001]

I'm no dart player,but wouldn't you think the bullseye would hit more often than any random area of same size on the outer edges of the board? Overlooking a small thing could kill a bookmaker.

You would think since the dart throwers would be aiming for it but I used the exact info pico gave in the OP.

Could you rephrase what you meant about the outer edges of the board? I don't understand.

[reno cool]

I don't know why Pico thinks lf or rh would make any difference. I'm simply thinking that most would be aiming for the dart board and therefore its center. Even if they're really bad, they would still be more likely to hit the bullseye than some spot 10 feet away. The same theory would apply for 5 inches away only to a smaller degree.

[tacomax]

ignore the bulleye and areas outside of the board. the numbers are half even half odd, but numbers are not placed in even-odd alternative pattern.

The most important piece of information here is what number the player is trying to hit in the first place as well the player's variance from the intended spot (which you wouldn't generally know but could estimate to some degree with beer consumption). Any dart player will be aiming for a specific point on the board which can change with each throw of the dart, especially towards the end of the game so the draws certainly aren't iid - if you assume that the throws in question are iid then these people would be highly intoxicated and shouldn't be given any sharp objects to play with.

A non-random throw at a specific area of the board will have differing probabilities of hitting an odd or even number depending upon the target in question. If you think there's an inherent bias in whether someone is left/right handed then it is even more important to know where on the board they are throwing to before you can answer the question.

[mojomaker11]

The most important piece of information here is what number the player is trying to hit in the first place as well the player's variance from the intended spot (which you wouldn't generally know but could estimate to some degree with beer consumption). Any dart player will be aiming for a specific point on the board which can change with each throw of the dart, especially towards the end of the game so the draws certainly aren't iid - if you assume that the throws in question are iid then these people would be highly intoxicated and shouldn't be given any sharp objects to play with.

A non-random throw at a specific area of the board will have differing probabilities of hitting an odd or even number depending upon the target in question. If you think there's an inherent bias in whether someone is left/right handed then it is even more important to know where on the board they are throwing to before you can answer the question.

Do people here really know what ~iid means?

[pico]

The most important piece of information here is what number the player is trying to hit in the first place as well the player's variance from the intended spot (which you wouldn't generally know but could estimate to some degree with beer consumption). Any dart player will be aiming for a specific point on the board which can change with each throw of the dart, especially towards the end of the game so the draws certainly aren't iid - if you assume that the throws in question are iid then these people would be highly intoxicated and shouldn't be given any sharp objects to play with.

A non-random throw at a specific area of the board will have differing probabilities of hitting an odd or even number depending upon the target in question. If you think there's an inherent bias in whether someone is left/right handed then it is even more important to know where on the board they are throwing to before you can answer the question.

all the drunk dart players are trying to impress the fine looking lass in the bar. so they're all aiming at the bullseye.

[tacomax]

Do people here really know what ~iid means?

I presume the people in the Think Tank do. Any other ruffians can make use of wikipedia.

[tomcowley]

I'm right handed and I threw significantly more 1s than 5s trying for 20/3x20, and I missed 3x20 high more often than low. Don't know if that's just me though.

[tacomax]

all the drunk dart players are trying to impress the fine looking lass in the bar. so they're all aiming at the bullseye.

If that's the case then game theory would eventually kick in, thus dictating that one of the guys will eventually realise that the best way to get the girl in the sack is to ply her with alcohol rather than throw darts at a dartboard with your drunken friends.

[Bread]

Who uses the word "lass" anymore?!?! High five!

[pico]

ok, how about a fit bird?

[diogee]

How did the dart board treat ya Pico??? My coins only provided 92 plays today.

[pico]

dart board told me to bet on st mary and hawaii for chase play.

[diogee]

Lol...my coin told me Idaho but last time I bet against Hawaii they shot 52%