Two proposals for replacing the NFL overtime coin toss

[Ganchrow]

Flipping Awful -- Why the NFL should replace the overtime coin toss with an auction system
By Tim Harford @ Slate.com

If the Super Bowl goes into overtime for the first time ever, it's fairly certain who will be victorious: the team that wins the coin toss. ... In the 14 overtime games that produced a winner this season, the coin-toss victor won 10 of the games, more than 70 percent. Since 2002, the team that's gotten the toss has won more than 60 percent of overtime games.

Chess faces a similar problem—it's generally regarded as an advantage to play white. But the chess world has long had a solution: Take it in turns and play a lot of games. That's easy for the chess guys—they have all the time in the world, and more forgiving TV schedules. College football has a similar philosophy, giving each team the ball at the opponents' 25-yard line and alternating possessions until someone breaks the tie. But the NFL's competition committee, which pondered the overtime problem in depth in 2003, decided to stick with the status quo of "sudden death."

With a little ingenuity, there is a way for overtime to be both fair and fast. One solution is usually associated with cake-cutting: one person divides, the other chooses which half to take. In a football overtime, the divide-and-choose rule would dispense with the kickoff and just give the ball to one side. The coin-toss loser would decide how far forward the offense would start—say, the 30-yard line. The coin-toss winner would then decide whether to take possession or let the coin-toss loser have the ball at the 30.

...

read more at Slate.com

[SportsLockPicks]

i agree ganch, i always thought instituting the college OT rule would be fair, but I heard a college commentator make a case for why their way was unfair as well...albeit, more fair than the NFL approach.
He stated that it was a disadvantage for defensive minded teams, in that it was basically an offensive test, rather than a fair match...either way, I think the college rules should be taken into consideration, anything is better than what they have now...are there exact numbers as to the percentage of coin flip winners winning the game?

[Mudcat]

are there exact numbers as to the percentage of coin flip winners winning the game?

It's not exact but in the article ganchrow linked, it says over 60% since 2002.

I love the auction idea in the article. Very creative and strategy-intensive. I don't hate the other "divide and choose" idea either.

I have to say, I am one of the few people who has basically been pretty satisfied with the current coin-flip system. But I like both of these ideas better.

[pico]

divide and choose is how me and my buddy divvy up the ounce.

[RageWizard]

I guess that I'm the only one here who likes it the way it is. Too many coaches play for OT. I like what Denver did earlier last year buy going for the win after the ref gave them another chance.

If anything, let the team kick off from the 40 yard line. That's it. Usually teams win because they get the ball up around the 30 after the kick off and only need to move the ball 40 yards to get a good field goal try.

Or how about this, if the team scores a field goal, the other team gets a shot with the ball, but if they score a TD, its over.

[pavyracer]

It should be changed to a FG contest. Each team kicks 5 FG's. one from 20, 25 ,30 ,35 ,40 yard line. You get 1 pt from 20 yards, 2 pt for 25 yards....5 pts from 45 yards if you make it. Then if you don't make it you subtract the same number of points. The team with the more points at the end wins the OT.

[daggerkobe]

No overtime.

Everyone goes home winners.



Sincerely,
Bud Selig

[SBR Lou]

The rule should remain as is. Nothing is stopping the team that loses the toss from playing some defense. It starts with special teams coverage, then the defensive unit. It's no different than the first drive of a new ball-game, make one stop, and get the ball back.

[curious]

They should do like they do in baseball. In baseball they keep adding another inning on until one team scores more than the other team in one inning.

So, just add a 15 minute quarter. If the game is still tied at the end of that, then add another 15 minute quarter until the game is decided.

This would give teams incentive to go for the win and not the tie.

[pico]

They should do like they do in baseball. In baseball they keep adding another inning on until one team scores more than the other team in one inning.

So, just add a 15 minute quarter. If the game is still tied at the end of that, then add another 15 minute quarter until the game is decided.

This would give teams incentive to go for the win and not the tie.

that is how they have it now.

[Mudcat]

Or here's another idea: instead of deciding the game on the field, have a computer program and a bunch of random voters decide who gets the victory.

[RageWizard]

works for college, and everybody is OK with that.

[pico]

Or here's another idea: instead of deciding the game on the field, have a computer program and a bunch of random voters decide who gets the victory.

[daggerkobe]

that is how they have it now.

Is that u McNabb?

Game ends in a tie if no one scores after the first OT.

[pico]

Is that u McNabb?

Game ends in a tie if no one scores after the first OT.

playoffs goes forever. no ties

[daggerkobe]

Simple solution:

Put in a rule that if a team scores on the first drive of OT they must kickoff. Notice that I didn't say both teams must get a possession because if a team chooses to onside kick and recover, they win. If they fumble the kickoff and turn it over, game over.

If the other team cant score, game over. If they tie, game goes on and sudden death applies.

[daggerkobe]

playoffs goes forever. no ties

Of course, they need a winner. But he's talking about general rule.

[Dark Horse]

Instead of a coin flip, let special teams decide who gets the ball. Each team gets the ball at the 50 and kicks as if it were 4th down. The other team is allowed to return the ball, if they want. Whoever pins the ball closest to the goal line wins, and the winner of this mini contest gets the ball first in OT.

[daggerkobe]

Do it like XFL...... have a guy from each team fight for the ball.

[coldhardfacts]

Simple solution:

Put in a rule that if a team scores on the first drive of OT they must kickoff. Notice that I didn't say both teams must get a possession because if a team chooses to onside kick and recover, they win. If they fumble the kickoff and turn it over, game over.

If the other team cant score, game over. If they tie, game goes on and sudden death applies.

This is the best of all the solutions I've seen so far. The reason that the college rule sucks is that one of the beauties of football is that you have to earn every yard you get, and make the opposing team earn every yard they get. In the college game, each team is given 75 yards on every possession in OT for doing nothing.

[Dark Horse]

I don't really mind it the way it is. If a 50% coin flip produces 60% winners, so be it. The luck would be worth 10%. Luck is part of the game anyway, so a coin toss is not unfair. In the long run the luck should even out for each team. The coin toss, in fact, is as perfect as it gets.

[eidolon]

I think the college rules are good. BUT they should start on the 50 yard line instead of the 20

[LT Profits]

All they have to do is make one revision to the current rule:

If the team that wins the OT toss scores on the opening drive, they must kick off as they would in regulation and give the other team one possession. THEN, if game is still tied after each team has had one overtime possession, it becomes sudden death.

[tullamore]

Or how about this, if the team scores a field goal, the other team gets a shot with the ball, but if they score a TD, its over.

I like this idea, give the team a rebuttal.

[LT Profits]

I like this idea, give the team a rebuttal.

Basically what I just posted.

[Mudcat]

Here's what I have learned from discussions about this topic: people who don't mind the current system have inferiority complexes.

We always seem to start off by saying something like: I guess I'm the only one who likes the current system but . . .

But the truth is, lots of people are fine with it.

[tullamore]

A major factor as for why nothing will be done will be injuries. I don't feel you can play another full 15 minutes, look at this NFL season, how many top players were banged up. It would be nice to see each team get a chance, with the ball, how about all FG attempts in OT are from 40 yards? This would put a little strategy into the play calling in OT.

[curious]

that is how they have it now.

No they don't.

First team to score wins.

I'm talking about setting up a 15 minute quarter, play the entire 15 minutes.

[curious]

A major factor as for why nothing will be done will be injuries. I don't feel you can play another full 15 minutes, look at this NFL season, how many top players were banged up. It would be nice to see each team get a chance, with the ball, how about all FG attempts in OT are from 40 yards? This would put a little strategy into the play calling in OT.

That was kind of my point. NO ONE would want to play another 15 minutes. So, instead of being a pussy and kicking that game tying field goal they would go for the TD. Or instead of wimping out and kicking that extra point they would go for the 2 point conversion.

[Data]

Well, I know next to nothing about the game of football but I did notice something from socioeconomic standpoint. First, the games attract high TV ratings in the US and that makes the teams incredibly valuable entertainment entities. The worlds most expensive soccer teams cost barely more than the least expensive NFL teams. From entertainment standpoint it is better to keep things changing and make sure there are twists and surprises. So, the NFL's goal is not to find the best team and ridiculously short season proves it. It is simple, the shorter the season, the more random the results. Obviously, the OT rule falls perfectly inline with NFL's goal to increase randomness of game outcomes.

[WileOut]

The way college does it is perfect except they need to start at your own 40, not the opponent 25. This takes away the automatic FG. That is how the pros should do it, start at your own 40. That way you have to actually move the ball and get a couple of first downs to attempt a FG.

[SBR Lou]

Well, I know next to nothing about the game of football but I did notice something from socioeconomic standpoint. First, the games attract high TV ratings in the US and that makes the teams incredibly valuable entertainment entities. The worlds most expensive soccer teams cost barely more than the least expensive NFL teams. From entertainment standpoint it is better to keep things changing and make sure there are twists and surprises. So, the NFL's goal is not to find the best team and ridiculously short season proves it. It is simple, the shorter the season, the more random the results. Obviously, the OT rule falls perfectly inline with NFL's goal to increase randomness of game outcomes.

There will be a 17th game added, and they will start cutting off pre-season weeks. I think owners would have no problem with further extension of the season, but at some point you have to consider the sheer physicality of the game. I think, so long as the NFL continues implementing rules to protect the Quarterbacks, the regular season could conceivably hit 18 to 20 games.

[Tsoprano]

Simple slution:

Let Tsoprano decide who he wants to win.

Simple and fast.

[Dark Horse]

In college nobody cares that OT takes a long time. In the NFL OT has to be short. Because after a nationally televised 1 PM follows a 4 PM game on another national channel. Advertisers pay for a certain type of exposure, and OT would cut into that. As usual, it's about the money.

[daggerkobe]

All they have to do is make one revision to the current rule:

If the team that wins the OT toss scores on the opening drive, they must kick off as they would in regulation and give the other team one possession. THEN, if game is still tied after each team has had one overtime possession, it becomes sudden death.

Are u for real?