Hedging...Superbowl...

[purecarnagge]

stats are 18/25 superbowls have been decided by 7 or more points differential from the superbowl line.

If this is true then taking the steelers -6.5 and taking the cardinals ML a good play... Steelers to cover the ML play? hopefully ML cashes?

Just wondering... What people think of this... Historically the spread is not very on for "the big game".

[durito]

Date Away Away Line Home Home Line Over Under Away Score Home Score
1/26/1986 New England 10 Chicago -10 37 10 46
1/25/1987 Denver 8.5 New York (NYG) -8.5 40.5 20 39
1/31/1988 Washington 3 Denver -3 47 42 10
1/22/1989 Cincinnati 7 San Francisco -7 47.5 16 20
1/28/1990 San Francisco -11.5 Denver 11.5 47 55 10
1/27/1991 Buffalo -6.5 New York (NYG) 6.5 39 19 20
1/26/1992 Washington -7.5 Buffalo 7.5 49 37 24
1/31/1993 Buffalo 6 Dallas -6 45 17 52
1/30/1994 Dallas -10.5 Buffalo 10.5 50.5 30 13
1/29/1995 San Diego 18 San Francisco -18 54 26 49
1/28/1996 Pittsburgh 13.5 Dallas -13.5 52 17 27
1/26/1997 New England 13 Green Bay -13 NL 21 35
1/25/1998 Green Bay -11.5 Denver 11.5 48.5 24 31
1/31/1999 Denver -7.5 Atlanta 7.5 51.5 34 19
1/30/2000 St. Louis -7 Tennessee 7 48 23 16
1/28/2001 Baltimore -3 New York (NYG) 3 33.5 34 7
2/3/2002 St. Louis -14 New England 14 53 17 20
1/26/2003 Oakland -3.5 Tampa Bay 3.5 44 21 48
2/1/2004 Carolina 7 New England -7 38 29 32
2/6/2005 New England -7 Philadelphia 7 47 24 21
2/5/2006 Seattle 4 Pittsburgh -4 47 10 21
2/4/2007 Indianapolis -6.5 Chicago 6.5 47 29 17
2/3/2008 New York (NYG) 12 New England -12 54.5 17 14

[donjuan]

If this is true then taking the steelers -6.5 and taking the cardinals ML a good play... Steelers to cover the ML play? hopefully ML cashes?

This is pretty much the opposite of what you should be doing.

[purecarnagge]

how so? Less risk this way...cover the ML bet with the spread...bigger payout if the cards win...I cover if the steelers cover... I see this game not being close...one team wins...and wins big!

[SlickFazzer]

[reno cool]

using your idea you should take pitt -13.5

in which case both sides pay about +220

you will risk 200 to return 320, if you can expect to win more than 62.5% of the time you're good.


18/25 = 72% you decide how much value you want to give to that stat.

[reno cool]

durito's stats seem to show 11 of 23 lost if I'm reading mombo jumbo right.

[dwaechte]

This is definitely the opposite of what you want to be doing. The Cards are overvalued on the ML compared to the spread and vice versa.

[donjuan]

how so? Less risk this way...cover the ML bet with the spread...bigger payout if the cards win...I cover if the steelers cover... I see this game not being close...one team wins...and wins big!

Because the Cardinals ML, much like the Giants ML last year, does not correspond to that spread and total.

This is definitely the opposite of what you want to be doing. The Cards are overvalued on the ML compared to the spread and vice versa.

Ding ding ding. This is known as statistical arbitrage and is basically what you would be doing if you were running a sports betting hedge fund.

[Shortstop]

Date Away Away Line Home Home Line Over Under Away Score Home Score
1/26/1986 New England 10 Chicago -10 37 10 46
1/25/1987 Denver 8.5 New York (NYG) -8.5 40.5 20 39
1/31/1988 Washington 3 Denver -3 47 42 10
1/22/1989 Cincinnati 7 San Francisco -7 47.5 16 20
1/28/1990 San Francisco -11.5 Denver 11.5 47 55 10
1/27/1991 Buffalo -6.5 New York (NYG) 6.5 39 19 20
1/26/1992 Washington -7.5 Buffalo 7.5 49 37 24
1/31/1993 Buffalo 6 Dallas -6 45 17 52
1/30/1994 Dallas -10.5 Buffalo 10.5 50.5 30 13
1/29/1995 San Diego 18 San Francisco -18 54 26 49
1/28/1996 Pittsburgh 13.5 Dallas -13.5 52 17 27
1/26/1997 New England 13 Green Bay -13 NL 21 35
1/25/1998 Green Bay -11.5 Denver 11.5 48.5 24 31
1/31/1999 Denver -7.5 Atlanta 7.5 51.5 34 19
1/30/2000 St. Louis -7 Tennessee 7 48 23 16
1/28/2001 Baltimore -3 New York (NYG) 3 33.5 34 7
2/3/2002 St. Louis -14 New England 14 53 17 20
1/26/2003 Oakland -3.5 Tampa Bay 3.5 44 21 48
2/1/2004 Carolina 7 New England -7 38 29 32
2/6/2005 New England -7 Philadelphia 7 47 24 21
2/5/2006 Seattle 4 Pittsburgh -4 47 10 21
2/4/2007 Indianapolis -6.5 Chicago 6.5 47 29 17
2/3/2008 New York (NYG) 12 New England -12 54.5 17 14

Green Bay ?

[durito]

Green Bay ?

no

[jjgold]

Lets be honest, it is luck if these strategies hold up, solid info and angles though.

[Shortstop]

no

Yes, Green Bay played New England, not St. Louis.

[diogee]

Yes, Green Bay played New England, not St. Louis.

True that Shortstop...except that was in 97. NE played Stl in '02 in the game stl tied it up in the final couple of minutes just for NE to march down for the game winning fg.

[Shortstop]

True that Shortstop...except that was in 97. NE played Stl in '02 in the game stl tied it up in the final couple of minutes just for NE to march down for the game winning fg.

Ooops My bad. Time warp.

[BeatTheJerk]

bump

[purecarnagge]

bump

are you trying to bump a discussion thread that I didn't even bet?

I had 10.00 on the Steelers winning with a co-worker and, numerous prop bets that I bet for action, like 20.00 to win etc... the props that I bet didn't even meet limits. But I had fun and I think I won enough to pay for my super bowl party and UFC fight that sucked

headz
over anthem
parker no td
fitz td
warner over yds
warner td
Warner first INT/fumble
unanswered scores

Three that didn't cover

Ward completions
Parker yards
first score

[donjuan]

It's a stupid bump and the final score landing where it did only makes it slightly more likely that the original post was a bad idea. But that said, it is still exactly the opposite of what you want to be doing unless you are getting some crazy good numbers on both ends compared to what was available online and what I heard was available in Vegas.

[purecarnagge]

It's a stupid bump and the final score landing where it did only makes it slightly more likely that the original post was a bad idea. But that said, it is still exactly the opposite of what you want to be doing unless you are getting some crazy good numbers on both ends compared to what was available online and what I heard was available in Vegas.

yup, I heeded some advice and laid off the idea... But thats why we have forums to kick bad ideas around

[BeatTheJerk]

See the thing is PC ................ I believe if it came through, you would've been on here saying what a great hedge I'm a genius blah blah blah, because in the thread you really made a strong case for it to cash, and now since the result card is in you shy away from your old hypothetical perdiction thats I'll I'm saying, but if you said you didn't bet it fine I guess I can believe you.

[BeatTheJerk]

It's a stupid bump and the final score landing where it did only makes it slightly more likely that the original post was a bad idea. But that said, it is still exactly the opposite of what you want to be doing unless you are getting some crazy good numbers on both ends compared to what was available online and what I heard was available in Vegas.

And the hedge didn't workout, so I bumped it RJ . It's that fuking simple it's not irrelevent or stupid as you put it !

[purecarnagge]

See the thing is PC ................ I believe if it came through, you would've been on here saying what a great hedge I'm a genius blah blah blah, because in the thread you really made a strong case for it to cash, and now since the result card is in you shy away from your old hypothetical perdiction thats I'll I'm saying, but if you said you didn't bet it fine I guess I can believe you.

Yes I'm a genius. I had to pay Jay at work 10.00
This means now everyday I have to listen to this smuck cardinals fan go on about how he took money off me... I will have revenge when I present him with his review at the end of the month though!!!

I decided to try my luck on props...normally i stay far far away from props, but I thought I did very well for my first real shot at em.