Can someone polease give me some advice on middling. Is it profitable? How often do you have to win to be succesful at it? What are the best lines to middle at? Do middlers generally come out ahead or in front? Thanks guys and I am really excited about the SBR forum!
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Hey I know BuddyBear! Thanks for checking out the new forum.
I'll jump in on this topic.
Some people say middling is an art. I say it's a science. To my way of thinking, it's basically the same as betting big moneyline underdogs. You're going to lose more often than you win; but if you do it right, the wins are bigger than the combined losses.
The principle is to find a situation where you can take both sides of a bet (at two different sportsbooks presumably) with a minimal straddle.
Probably easiest to lay out an example. Last year's Super Bowl. Say you could get NE-6 -102 at one sportsbook and PHILLY+6.5 +100 at another. Just to throw out some figures, you lay
NE-6 $1010 (to win 990)
PHILLY+6.5 $1000 (to win $1000)
So if New England doesn't win by exactly 6, you've lost 10 bucks (and moved some money around). If they do win by exactly 6, your bets are WIN/PUSH and you've made $1000. You only need to be right once every hundred bets to break even.
As a scientific minded person, I would want the actual research and find out what percentage of games where there is a 6 point spread end in a push (and make sure it's more than 1% - which is the break even point on this middle).
That's the basic principle. The variations are endless though. Sometimes, you'll find lines of -3.5 and +4.5 so if you hit the middle, you get a WIN/WIN rather than a WIN/PUSH. In that situation you can tolerate a bigger straddle.
It's a very big topic but hopefully that is a good start.Comment -
Nice to see you here, U-MudcatComment -
Any time you can play a favored team at -2.5 or less and simultaneously play the underdog in the same game at +3.5 or more at a different shop, place 2 units on each team in that way. Example: If it's Cowboys vs. Redskins and WWTS has the Cowboys -2.5 and Carib has the Cowboys at -3.5, put two units on the Cowboys -2.5 at WWTS and 2 units on the Redskins +3.5 at Carib. Alas, these days this scenario is pretty rare. When it does occur, sacrifice a Virgin in honor of the gods. Well, at least sacrifice a dash of virgin olive oil for the top of your pizza in celebration.
Any time you can play a favored team at -6.5 or less and simultaneously play the underdog in the same game at +7.5 or more at a different shop, place 1 unit on each team in that way.
Anytime you can play the favorite at -3 and the dog at +3.5 or more, or you can play the dog at +3 and the favorite at -2.5 or less, place one unit on each team in this way.
Any time you can simultaneously get a two or more point differential in lines from two different shops, put one unit at each shop to take advantage of this. Example: If it's Patriots vs. Jets, and Victor Chandler has the Patriots -4 and Canbet has the Patriots -6, play one unit on the Patriots at -4 at VC and one unit on the Jets +6 at Canbet. [This will occur very rarely, unless you have local outs at your disposal. Again we're not advocating breaking any laws, but IF you choose to use local outs you'll make more plays.
Like Mudcat said, midding is like taking a shot with a huge underdog, but if done the right way, you can cash in big time.Comment -
Middling applies in different ways in all sports. For example an NBA total is relatively rare to get the push you need so I would almost want ZERO straddle. It happens if you keep your eyes open. For example you might get:
OVER 194 -103
UNDER 194.5 +103
It's a free shot. It's rare that you'll get the push but there's nothing to lose.
On soccer on the other hand if you ever saw something like
OVER 1.5 -105
UNDER 2 +105
it would be unbelievable good fortune because a push on a soccer total is much more common (but you would never find a couple of lines like that on a soccer total.)
The likelihood of a push on baseball total is somewhere in between soccer and hoops. A hockey total would push more often than a baseball total.
There are so many angles, it's nuts.Comment -
Hitting both ends of a middle is about 30/1Comment -
First you have to determine the probability of the number landing in the middle or directly on the number.
Ex. make 100 bets at $100/game when the line is 3.
Team A is +3.5 -110
Team B is -3 -110
Say the probability of the spread landing on 3 is 9.8%
Hits three 9.8 * 100 = 980
Misses three 91.2 * -10 = -912
Profit = $78 over 100 bets
Break even in this situation is hitting three 9.09% of the time. You can use a database to determine probabilities or find the probabilities on the Net. Also for accuracy you should take whether the home or away team is favored and the spread on the total of the game.Comment -
Very good info Raiders.Comment -
I think you need too much money and way too many books to middle and the ROI is just not there anymore because the majority of books just copy lines as you see do not see the opinions anymore.Comment -
Coach- The gravy train is gone. Now you have to find those sleepy books and not so safe books to do it. The easiest way to do it is find a slow moving book and hit steam. Then play back the other way. The only problem is that books don't like steam players.Comment -
Sorry guys I must have been drinking. Here's the correct formula:
Lands on three 9.8%
Under three 45.6%
Over three 45.6%
Win rate for 1/2 point off of 3 = 45.6 + 9.8 = 55.4%
Lose 45.6%
Win 55.4 * 100 = 5540
Lose 45.6 * -110 = 5016
Profit = 5540 - 5016 = $524Comment -
Great advice in this thread.Comment -
Should be 45.1 : (100 - 9.8 ) / 2 = 45.1, you do the rest.Comment -
Problem now is most books just copy lines so getting wide spreads is near to impossible. I think in college foots you can do it best if you bet on Sunday Nights and then later in the week see the wat the line moves..Comment -
I'd agree with this. However, the rub for me is that too many times I turned a winning bet into a loser chasing a middle. In other words, I picked a spot I liked early in the week and bet it. Later, I find the line has moved in my favor and I can now take the other side for a middle opportunity. So I do and woudn't you know, my first bet wins and my second loses and I have turned a good handicapping effort into a waste. Stick to betting sides...Comment -
have never really tried middling myself...Comment -
It feels good when you hit.Comment -
you say hitting a middle is 30:1? how do you know that? i have been playing middles so far this season..i look for a 1 point middle in a regulation nfl or ncaa game (example: -2.5 and +3.5)..usually i get one side at -110 and the other at -110 or -115..i also look for middles on the half when the total points is 24 or lower..(ill take something like 2.5 and +3 and look for the push on the half) it has been decent but not too great as of yet..you have any comments for what am i doing? smart? stupid? needs a little fixing?Comment
