A question for the experts regarding "Steam Moves"

[InTheHole]

Let me start off by saying I am a recreational bettor. I really don't have any solid systems or strategies. If Pags, Ganch, Justin7, Durito, etc we're in the 90-100 range for gambling skills, I'd be a 50 (no advantage in picking games).

That being said, a lot of credence has been afforded to chasing steam. My understanding is these plays win more often than they lose, an undeniable fact.

*My question to you boys is with information being near perfect (sport insights, etc), how do you separate a true steam move vs. some big bettor who is known to be more right than wrong (moving the line) and then just a bunch of nobodies blindly following that move and causing books to become defensive in protecting the line?

[InTheHole]

My logic here would be similar to the "Internet Bubble"... overvaluing a play thinking there is good money behind it when in fact it is a mis informed public ...sort of like bad money after good money.

[Mudcat]

My understanding is these plays win more often than they lose, an undeniable fact.

My 2 cents:

It is not true that steam plays - if you play them as straight bets - win more often than they lose. There are some situations - moves in certain sports where the line is within certain ranges - that churn out a long-term profit.

But my research has shown that most steam moves are coin-flip propositions and you can't really learn anything from them. You can bet them and you'll have your ups and downs and eventually lose on vig.

My method for determining which are the good ones would be rather complex to try to explain here and, to be honest, I wouldn't want it to be public anyway.


Steam plays can certainly be a can't-miss proposition in one sense. If people use various techniques to determine when steam move is happening - and they bet ahead of the move at a slow-moving book - then make an arb or middle somewhere else using the new line - then that can't lose.

But most books will boot or collar players that do that consistently.

[Bluehorseshoe]

Well, chasing steam and getting the worst line IS a losing proposition. You either have to be on the know or have a slow book to make it work. Grabbing it the other way after the steam is done doesn't do much either.

In regards to steam winning more ofter than not, that hasn't been true the past few months.

[SportsLockPicks]

steam is on the bulls tonight

[SlickFazzer]

there is no way to know for sure.

the conventional thinking is that if the line move early, or right after being released, it is "sharp money".

there are also a couple of services with good reputations, for example helmut or edward in cbb, where you can find out when they release their plays, and see that their followers may be having
an impact on the game.

[pavyracer]

You have to watch for reverse steam. 95% of reverse steam moves always do not lose.

[SlickFazzer]

You have to watch for reverse steam. 95% of reverse steam moves always do not lose.

[InTheHole]

Some interesting feedback. Thank you!

[pavyracer]

reverse steam is when pavyracer likes a play and the steam moves the opposite way.

[InTheHole]

^ taht's my thinking lol

[purecarnagge]

The objective is to beating the closing line. So chasing steam and getting a bad line is not a very good proposition from that stand point. Now if you catch it early while its moving thats not so bad. But most people do not and the line moves before they can get substantial amount down.

[rookie]

I do what Mudcat described: arb, middle or a half-naked position on stale line. But, you need to have accounts with loads of books and yes you will be restricted at some point in time. Already shown the door by a couple in last two months. Life as a steam chaser sucks .

[InTheHole]

Anybody have any data regarding how close these games are decided? At face value it doesn't seem that 1-2pts is going to make a difference but I know such a difference comes into play at least 1 out of ten shots which is the difference between being a winner and a loser.

[RockBottom]

The steam move is only good if you are get the best number. Since the Bulls have been steamed down, hard to bet them now when you could have have a point better earlier in the day. Over time, those add up.

[Chi_archie]

I didn't quite get the wording of that sentence either

[donjuan]

But my research has shown that most steam moves are coin-flip propositions and you can't really learn anything from them. You can bet them and you'll have your ups and downs and eventually lose on vig.

This makes no sense. Are you talking about betting it at the stale number or at the new number?

[Bluehorseshoe]

I didn't quite get the wording of that sentence either

I think he was going for the "Anchorman" reference. You know, "Sex Panther" cologne. "They've done studies, you know. 60% of the time it works, every time."

[donjuan]

Anybody have any data regarding how close these games are decided? At face value it doesn't seem that 1-2pts is going to make a difference but I know such a difference comes into play at least 1 out of ten shots which is the difference between being a winner and a loser.

Look at the half-point calculator. Most numbers push around 4% of the time in bball. If you get a line that is stale by a point, and the new line is efficient, you've changed a coinflip into a 54% bet which is +ev at -110.

[InTheHole]

^ Thanks DonJuan

[pavyracer]

I think he was going for the "Anchorman" reference. You know, "Sex Panther" cologne. "They've done studies, you know. 60% of the time it works, every time."

Someone paid attention to the word always.

[Bostongambler]

Well, chasing steam and getting the worst line IS a losing proposition. You either have to be on the know or have a slow book to make it work. Grabbing it the other way after the steam is done doesn't do much either.

In regards to steam winning more ofter than not, that hasn't been true the past few months.

Thats the answer right there.

[RockBottom]

Well, chasing steam and getting the worst line IS a losing proposition. You either have to be on the know or have a slow book to make it work. Grabbing it the other way after the steam is done doesn't do much either.

In regards to steam winning more ofter than not, that hasn't been true the past few months.

CBB sides have not fared well, CBB totals have been solid all year.

[purecarnagge]

Again the objective is to beat the closing line. If you can do that you will win overall long term.

[Bluehorseshoe]

CBB sides have not fared well, CBB totals have been solid all year.

Here's what you have for the week.