Strategy

[Keelan]

2nd week in a row i have followed for the over you and you haven't let me down keep up the good work

[a4u2fear]

2nd week in a row i have followed for the over you and you haven't let me down keep up the good work

Yes sir, another winner. Guess I knew what I was doing when I built this system

[Keelan]

Yes sir, another winner. Guess I knew what I was doing when I built this system

[gui_m_p]

For those who likes the concept of closing line value, I returned of all posted plays and tracked each value. I considered pinnacle lines and the odds available by the time of the post. Results below. Alert me if I forgot some pick.

26/10 Denver O57 – W
CL: 58 Value: +1

01/11 Dallas O47.5 – W
CL: 51 Value: +3.5

02/11 Green Bay O50 – L
CL: 50.5 Value: +0.5

05/11 San Diego O57 – L
CL: 56 Value: -1

24/11 Denver O56.5 – W
CL: 54 Value: -2,5

01/12 Denver O48.5 – W
CL: 50,5 Value: +2

CLV on average: + 0.6

At the least with this small sample, we can say the picks have value. It's worth noting that those picks that beat the CL were 3-1, those that didn't were 1-1.

Appreciate your work a4u2fear.

[a4u2fear]

GUI I will double check. The GB and Dal were not plays. Leans only. Those plays have never been verified so I only tossed them out there for those interested.

[a4u2fear]

For a 7pt differential between my line and vegas, hits at 67% (60 occurrences)

For a 14pt differential between my line and vegas, hits at 80% (30 occurrences)

For a 20pt differential between my line and vegas, hits at 82% (11 occurrences)

The winner this week fell into the 14 pt differential, went from 79% to 80% and is now 24W out of 30 games.

The two win rates between 14/20 pt are so close now that one could lump them together and have just two ranges.

The system is now 5-1 this season.

[a4u2fear]

had a huuge day in NFL yesterday with 8700 pts in the SBR sportsbook and killing my local. The free over helps quite a bit.

[High3rEl3m3nt]

For a 7pt differential between my line and vegas, hits at 67% (60 occurrences)

For a 14pt differential between my line and vegas, hits at 80% (30 occurrences)

For a 20pt differential between my line and vegas, hits at 82% (11 occurrences)

The winner this week fell into the 14 pt differential, went from 79% to 80% and is now 24W out of 30 games.

The two win rates between 14/20 pt are so close now that one could lump them together and have just two ranges.

The system is now 5-1 this season.

A4U, am I reading this right? Your model is predicting that the actual line is off by 7 points or more that frequently? Do you see the flaw in this?

[a4u2fear]

So far, looks like there will not be a play this week. No games currently fit into the system. I will wait to see if any of the lines change enough to make them a play.

[a4u2fear]

A4U, am I reading this right? Your model is predicting that the actual line is off by 7 points or more that frequently? Do you see the flaw in this?

This is over 10 years from weeks 7 and on. So, I would say it is not often.

[High3rEl3m3nt]

So far, looks like there will not be a play this week. No games currently fit into the system. I will wait to see if any of the lines change enough to make them a play.

Reading between the lines. You are suggesting that if the market moves away from your model, then you might have a play or two. Shouldn't your model be out performing the market? You should read up on Justin7's, the danas, and ganchrow's posts on modeling.

[a4u2fear]

This is over 10 years from weeks 7 and on. So, I would say it is not often.

11 weeks over 10 years and 16 games a week (sometimes byes). Thats over 1500 games, making this occurrence 4% of the time

[High3rEl3m3nt]

So far, looks like there will not be a play this week. No games currently fit into the system. I will wait to see if any of the lines change enough to make them a play.

You should post all of the predictions. At this point, your model's ability to predict close games is relevant, if not more, than its predictions of lines being off by 7 or more points.

[a4u2fear]

Reading between the lines. You are suggesting that if the market moves away from your model, then you might have a play or two. Shouldn't your model be out performing the market? You should read up on Justin7's, the danas, and ganchrow's posts on modeling.

It's very unlikely. This season I have no chosen any plays like this. Plus the highlighted games are not ones I would see moving lower, they would be moving higher.

[High3rEl3m3nt]

"I would see moving lower, they would be moving higher"

What do you mean?

The NFL is the most efficient market. Your model should be confirming this, with some slight nuances. Anything radical is a red flag, which it seems like you understand.

[a4u2fear]

"I would see moving lower, they would be moving higher"

What do you mean?

The NFL is the most efficient market. Your model should be confirming this, with some slight nuances. Anything radical is a red flag, which it seems like you understand.

Yea I get what you are saying. What I meant was I have not yet used any moving lines to chose a game; and as you've reminded me - shouldn't. I meant the game that is close I only see the total rising which would move it away from the target number.

Thanks for keeping me on straight haha.

[chumiller22]

Been following you for two weeks now! big thanks for the overs, brother!!! keep up the good work!!! Looking forward to more!

Chuck

[a4u2fear]

it's a shame we didn't play the over last week, but my model only showed the line being off by 6 points; not 7 or more as required. That is also the case this week; the line is off 6 points so it is a no play.

anyone interested in the system and likes teasers, should definitely place the total in a teaser however the straight up play is a pass this week.

[gui_m_p]

it's a shame we didn't play the over last week, but my model only showed the line being off by 6 points; not 7 or more as required. That is also the case this week; the line is off 6 points so it is a no play.

anyone interested in the system and likes teasers, should definitely place the total in a teaser however the straight up play is a pass this week.

Are you referring to Denver's game?

[a4u2fear]

Are you referring to Denver's game?

Yes sorry I was too vague. Denver for last week and this week

[a4u2fear]

I mistakenly had an extra win in previous posts. This year the system is 4-1.

Denver, since week 7 has gone 5-3 vs the over. So when the system says play Denver over this year, we are hitting 80%. When the system says pass - the over is 1-2.

I'd say that's very good since we passed on the first KC game (went under) and successfully won the over in the rematch. The first SD game went under (lost bet) and passed on the rematch with SD (also went under).

[steel26]

Sounds like things are rolling. What does your system say for the up an coming games?

[a4u2fear]

Sounds like things are rolling. What does your system say for the up an coming games?

Just ran the numbers. System is a go this week for playing Den/Hou over 51.5. Fits into the 14 pt differential interval. I'm a little nervous with the bet since Houston looked so terrible last week, but it is a play none-the-less

Good luck!!!

[sbrhedge]

Just ran the numbers. System is a go this week for playing Den/Hou over 51.5. Fits into the 14 pt differential interval. I'm a little nervous with the bet since Houston looked so terrible last week, but it is a play none-the-less

Good luck!!!

I don't bet NFL much, but I have (warning: my system sucks for NFL) 62 on the total, DEN 38, HOU 24 - what is your final predicted score?

[a4u2fear]

I don't bet NFL much, but I have (warning: my system sucks for NFL) 62 on the total, DEN 38, HOU 24 - what is your final predicted score?

Den 44 Hou 20. I have not done enough research on the side performance of the system yet. That will be for next year

[a4u2fear]

Good news (I think) Schaub is starting for Houston

[Bustedu]

I have Denver 27 Houston 20

[a4u2fear]

beat the closing line again by 2 full points at the moment, good sign

[a4u2fear]

Four FGs first half, ugh

[Yuuuup11]

lol

[TheSuit]

My system crushes NFL but its a straight money line system with very limited betting on spreads. Big winner 5 years and running on NFL and college football. I use same concept on basketball too and it does pretty well. I may share it at some point.

[GSoro]

No system plays this week.

I haven't tracked the following plays in the past, but system likes the over in:
GB/CHI
DAL/MIN

Are you still tracking your record? How did it finish out last season and how has it done this season so far??

[ohdecas]

Interested also... *bump*