super bowl proposition

[Scorpion]

Thinking about selling my bicycle I use for work and take the over on how many times AZ will turn the ball over vs Pitt

I bet AZ will turn the ball over at least 4 times

[Chi_archie]

what is it set at?

1.5?

over 3.5 would prob be about +280

[Scorpion]

Thanks Archie

[Bread]

Warner under 255.5 pass yds (-120). Sell the kids and win that money!!!

[Justin7]

I made it 257 yards, and 1.82 turnovers expected from Arizona. You can Poisson it to figure out odds if bored.

[Chi_archie]

I made it 257 yards, and 1.82 turnovers expected from Arizona. You can Poisson it to figure out odds if bored.

justin is unreal......


Justy, did you get any offers on your sheet of likely props?

man, If I had a brain like his...i'd.....well even if I was smart I'd still waste my life most likely

[Bread]

Where do you do such things Justin?

[Justin7]

justin is unreal......


Justy, did you get any offers on your sheet of likely props?

man, If I had a brain like his...i'd.....well even if I was smart I'd still waste my life most likely

No offers... but I'm done betting on props now, except for game day stuff (like "NO" on every "Will xxxxx" score a TD, and "NO" on every prop at -500 or higher)

[Scorpion]

How about the coin toss guys?

[kwl1763]

No offers... but I'm done betting on props now, except for game day stuff (like "NO" on every "Will xxxxx" score a TD, and "NO" on every prop at -500 or higher)

Justin I'm interested in your props sheet assuming it's based on your capping and not what the lines are.

[donjuan]

Justin I'm interested in your props sheet assuming it's based on your capping and not what the lines are.

What does this even mean?

[Justin7]

The "market price" is Pittsburgh -7/ 46.5. You can set prices that include this information, or you can ignore it. I include this.

My capping suggested the line should be Pittsburgh 4/45. If I put more weight on this, all my props would lean towards pro-Arizona and anti-Pittsburgh. But if I want that, I could just bet the side.

When I do props, I assume the market line is accurate, and "squeeze" the numbers to conformity.

[donjuan]

That actually brings up an interesting point/question, Justin. Just how efficient is the Super Bowl line, and it's derivatives such as the ML? Almost every year there is a decent stat arb between the ML and spread for the SB.

[Justin7]

That actually brings up an interesting point/question, Justin. Just how efficient is the Super Bowl line, and it's derivatives such as the ML? Almost every year there is a decent stat arb between the ML and spread for the SB.

The line is probably pretty accurate today. If you see Arizona +7x or 47x on Sunday, you know it's no longer accurate. This is one of a handful of games where public money dwarfs sharp money.

[durito]

The "market price" is Pittsburgh -7/ 46.5. You can set prices that include this information, or you can ignore it. I include this.

My capping suggested the line should be Pittsburgh 4/45. If I put more weight on this, all my props would lean towards pro-Arizona and anti-Pittsburgh. But if I want that, I could just bet the side.

When I do props, I assume the market line is accurate, and "squeeze" the numbers to conformity.

I learned this the hard way. 3-28 on props on one NFL playoff game. Most were correlated with the Under. Needless to say, the game did not go under.

[Justin7]

I learned this the hard way. 3-28 on props on one NFL playoff game. Most were correlated with the Under. Needless to say, the game did not go under.

King Yao showed taught me about "prop beta". For every prop, you check two correlations: side and total. You can then figure out your effective beta for the total and side. If you have too much effective risk on any of those plays, you simply bet a side or total to flatten yourself out. He also wrote a great book "Weighing the Odds in Sports Betting" that is mandatory reading for any pro bettor.

[durito]

King Yao showed taught me about "prop beta". For every prop, you check two correlations: side and total. You can then figure out your effective beta for the total and side. If you have too much effective risk on any of those plays, you simply bet a side or total to flatten yourself out.

That's very intriguing. I'll see if I can up with something like that.

He also wrote a great book "Weighing the Odds in Sports Betting" that is mandatory reading for any pro bettor.

Agreed. It's an excellent book.