ZXCVBNM's Boxing Thread

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  • ZXCVBNM
    SBR MVP
    • 09-17-08
    • 1027

    #1
    ZXCVBNM's Boxing Thread
    Okay so.. I follow boxing. I do a good job analyzing, picking them.

    (Jan 24)Mosley vs Margarito.. very unknown here. Too many X factors. Reports coming in say that Margarito is struggling to shed weight. Mosley struggled against Mayorga at times in his last fight.

    I do think Mosley is NOT Cotto in that he will try to box him, or will be constantly overwhelmed by Margarito's pressure. He's a bigger fighter than Cotto and has fought at 154. Mosley has never been knocked out, and I don't think he will be here either.

    I suggest you take the Mosley Points Handicap (+22 at 5dimes) - it has been dropping the past few weeks from 24 to 22. No way Margarito wins this fight 9 rounds to 3 (3 judges 117-110 = 21 points). Mosley is too active, he won't allow himself to be overwhelmed - that is the key element here. He might've been outboxed against a peak Cotto, but Margarito is slower. Cotto allowed himself to be cornered because he was the smaller man with a decent, but unspectacular chin. Mosley has a brilliant chin, and liked to stand and trade and stand his ground. He won't allowed to be bossed around like Cotto was. Margarito can't be allowed to get into rhythm - and Mosley is no doubt studying those Clottey vs Margo tapes as I type.

    I think it will be a closer fight than everyone thinks. That's why you can get the over 10.5 at somewhat generous odds, that's why you can get such a large points handicap. Never underestimate fighter's last chances, because this is Mosley last chance.
  • RogueJuror
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 07-08-08
    • 10010

    #2
    I would love to hear Matty's and Poetman's view on it, also.

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    • ZXCVBNM
      SBR MVP
      • 09-17-08
      • 1027

      #3
      (Jan 30) Herman Ngoudjo vs Juan Urango - for the vacant IBF 140lb title in Montreal, Canada

      Urango is a somewhat one-dimensional slugger with big power. He has a decent resume, lost to Hatton and beat two B contenders. One little problem. The fight that allowed him to get the Hatton fight was one of the biggest robberies ever. In his adopted Florida hometown, he lost the fight at least 9-3 to the slickster Ben Rabah and somehow got the decision.

      Ngoudjo is exactly the type Urango doesn't like. A slick fast boxer. Ngoudjo hasn't really faced any slow powerful boxers like Urango.. he's always been put in against speed boxers like Malignaggi, Bailey, M'Baye - boring spectacles. His only loss has come to Jose Luis Castillo in Castillo's last great performance.. and many people think he won that fight.

      This is what it comes down to - power vs speed. And Urango has horrific against Ben Rabah, who Ngoudjo is better than. X Factor - they fight in Ngoudjo's hometown of Montreal. So any close decisions will probably go his way - but I don't think there will be a close decision. There will be a clear-cut win by Ngoudjo, provided he doesn't get caught by a big Urango bomb. You know all the factors will be on his side. The crowd, the ring size, etc.

      So the easy pick here is Herman Ngoudjo (-150) - odds are pretty low compared to what I think it should be. Strange that the over is so chalky because there is NO way in hell Urango will ever outbox Ngoudjo. So the Ngoudjo pick it is. Get to it before it's pounded up.
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      • ZXCVBNM
        SBR MVP
        • 09-17-08
        • 1027

        #4
        Originally posted by ZXCVBNM
        I think it will be a closer fight than everyone thinks. That's why you can get the over 10.5 at somewhat generous odds, that's why you can get such a large points handicap. Never underestimate fighter's last chances, because this is Mosley last chance.
        I f*cking KNEW it.. points handicap has gone all the way down to 19 - definitely not so attractive now.

        And the over has moved significantly too.
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