line moves

[rob]

Hi everyone...newbie here. There seems to be a lot of knowledgable people here. I'd like to hear your thoughts on playing line moves.
In football, my local book puts out his lines every Thursday afternoon. They never change, regardless of suspensions, injuries, weather, etc.
I've played line moves against the local guy for a number of years with general success. After finally keeping track of my results last year, I noticed that there were some areas where it was highly successful while others showed a loss.
For example, playing line moves on NFL totals was extremely profitable last year. NFL sides showed a small profit while college sides (which I quit playing but kept documenting 1/2 way through the season) was a loser.
The questions I have are:
Can I consider my results from last year consistent over the long term, or is each year different?
Are there any systems to isolate these games for a higher winning %?
How about playing line moves in hoops and baseball?
Finally, is there one sportsbook that generally has more accurate lines (closer to the score) than others?
Any info people have would be appreciated.

[SBR_John]

Well, one year is not long enough.

"Are there any systems to isolate these games for a higher winning %?"
Some of this is just common sense. If he is using a stale line then you have to 1) Resist playing small moves 2)Play the moves that have value and are not just steam moves on some rumor.

An excellent line set is dealt by CRIS. When SBR visits sportsbooks, which is dozens of times a year, pretty much all are watching BetCRIS.

[David]

If your local book lets you bet old numbers you should have no problem beating him over the long term.

[rob]

John, thanks for the info on BetCRIS.
How can I tell the difference between moves that have value and steam moves on some rumor?

[Dark Horse]

John, thanks for the info on BetCRIS.
How can I tell the difference between moves that have value and steam moves on some rumor?

I'm not sure, but I seem to remember that the new SBR Odds will in the future have a feature that will show how much of the public is on each side (and how much money).

[rolemand]

I don't know how or why CRIS gets so much respect when they won't even put out 5 inning lines for either end of a double header not to mention any other prop line associated with doubleheaders.

[rob]

Another question...sorry, but like it says, I'm a "rookie" here.
In baseball, CRIS has .20 lines. My local book is .10 - up to 1.80. Do I compare using the fav line, the dog line or compensate by moving them by .05?

[Brick Tamland]

books with 20 are not going to do many opinoins. use pinnacle for mls.

[mad]

Cris is a good book, however full juice and vanilla lines at times keeps me from playing there more than i do. As Brick stated, Pinnacle would be a better choice.

Also, you might do well to remember that last years results were biased towards favourites, certainly moreso than you would usually expect.

P.S Good to see you 'round again mate (Brick).

[Brick Tamland]

Cris is a good book, however full juice and vanilla lines at times keeps me from playing there more than i do. As Brick stated, Pinnacle would be a better choice.

Also, you might do well to remember that last years results were biased towards favourites, certainly more-so than you would usually expect.

yup...cris for the totals would be good. the smaller the vig ...the more the liines have to bounce around

[mad]

Here's a link to a thread you might find interesting. The Pinnacle lean seems to be along the lines of what you are talking...

http://forum.sbrforum.com/showthread.php?t=15338

[rob]

Thanks for all your help, guys. It's greatly appreciated!

[jjgold]

Cris puts very early numbers out that is why line is respected regardless of sport.

[rolemand]

Cris puts very early numbers out that is why line is respected regardless of sport.

Except for double headers. that is just a sore spot with me.