Another important GAMBLING TIP

[Nicky Santoro]

Betting big market teams will bankrupt you.. and betting shitty teams who you think can never win will make you money in the long run, no matter how shit a team is, but bet em at the best line. Big market teams will bankrupt you, which makes the shitty teams have good value. Bet real crappy teams and you're better than 50% to win.

Proof: and this is not a fluke, it's like this practically every year


Milwaukee Bucks-- crappy year... 24-12 ATS.. cleaning up if you're betting em this year

Okla CTY-- 5-31 record---22-14 ATS (if this one ain't proof, i dont know what is)

Boston Celtics-- 29-8... down money gambling ATS...

LA Lakers- 28-6-- down big money gambling ATS

S.A Spurs-- 24-11.. down money gambling ATS..

______


Do you see the point.. Notice how the big name teams that the public loves to bet are all down money, while having a great record..

i can go on forever and give you more examples, but you get the point. Big market teams like Lakers, Celtics, and ESPECIALLY the Yankees will make you go broke in the long run.. Yanks are down 125 units in the last 8 yrs or so..

Never bet a big market team like them unless you don't mind betting into a bad line. Just look at last year's final when Lakers were -210 for the series vs best team in NBA with no home court and people were still pouring in on Lakers.

be very careful.. you won't always save money doing this every game, but in the very long haul, your pockets will thank you..

[SlickFazzer]

yep.

[Jetsfan]

That's just how the public likes to bet. It won't ever change.

These words are falling on deaf ears, if you scroll down there are already two Boston Celtics ML threads made, and probably will be eleven more by game time.

[Chi_archie]

good stuff Nicky. keep em coming. Hope Tsoprano heeds the lesson here

[treece]

What about Oklahoma and Florida. They were like 80% ATS combined this year.

[pavyracer]

I like Nicky's unimportant gambling picks better.

[Nicky Santoro]

What about Oklahoma and Florida. They were like 80% ATS combined this year.

Treecy,

this doesn't work on every team and every year.. but it's pretty accurate that in the long haul, you will not lose if you do this.. AND.. bet the best line possible..

for example, the whole world was expecting DET TIGERS to do great and if you bet them, you lost 30 units in 1 season.

just look at baseball.. every year, the top money making teams are the small market teams and the teams with big names like METS, YANKEES end up with 90+ wins and almost always end up losing money.

Last year in bases, 3 of the top 4 teams that made money.. TB, HOU, FLA.. i bet when the season began you had no idea you could make 30,000 bucks betting 1k a game on TB, huh??

[LT Profits]

Nicky is 99% right here (did I really say that out loud).

One minor argument is that you can win with popular teams if you bet them very early in spots where their opening prices are cheap, as you will almost always beat the closing line doing this.

[SBR Lou]

You don't 'have' to bet the same team all year, though. People just do because they fall in love with teams, but just because the Lakers are losing money right now doesn't mean someone that only bets on them situationally isn't up units.

[fiveteamer]

Stay in the game.

god bless.

[SlicWilly3]

That's just how the public likes to bet. It won't ever change.

These words are falling on deaf ears, if you scroll down there are already two Boston Celtics ML threads made, and probably will be eleven more by game time.

Yeah but Boston is playing the Cavs.......Who are a top team.
It's not like their playing OK City laying 15 pts?
Are you saying you don't think Boston can beat Clev tonight??
I think it will be a great game. Boston will come to play because of the hype this game is getting. A game like this could go either way.
That's why the underdog on the ML has a lot of value my friend.
I'll take The Celtics on the ML all day long at +155 to +160

[jjgold]

Nicky is sharp, he is here to teach us

Soprano needs to read this real bad

[fiveteamer]

Yeah but Boston is playing the Cavs.......Who are a top team.
It's not like their playing OK City laying 15 pts?
Are you saying you don't think Boston can beat Clev tonight??
I think it will be a great game. Boston will come to play because of the hype this game is getting. A game like this could go either way.
That's why the underdog on the ML has a lot of value my friend.
I'll take The Celtics on the ML all day long at +155 to +160

Idiots said the same thing about them when they were playing the Lakers, and I fell for it.

[Nicky Santoro]

Of the 45 remaining Celtics games, how many will Soprano bet on Celtics?

43.5 ov -145
43.5 un +125

[SlicWilly3]

Idiots said the same thing about them when they were playing the Lakers, and I fell for it.

Yeah who knows.....Cleveland may win tonight? I just think Boston can just as easily win this game too. Boston's like a wounded dog right now.....Who knows what we'll get tonight.
I just think they have value at +155/+160

But my favorite action is taking ML dogs too

[pico]

how was 07' patriots? were they a big market team?

[flyingillini]

You tell em Nicky

[treece]

If you bet 2 dimes a game every game against the Yankees then you don't have to work.

[onthewhat]

Guys saying how about Patriots or Florida or whatever football...their seasons are 19 games long max if NFL ... 14 max if college...so if they go 6-8 they are only down 2 units ATS...

Whereas MLB and NBA are 162 or 82 games plus playoffs...so easier to lose more

Theory doesnt apply to leagues with 16 game seasons as much as it does to NBA, NHL, MLB, etc

[durito]

how was 07' patriots? were they a big market team?

they fit nickys idea exactly

they were covering like crazy first hafl of the year... everyone was betting them... i knew guys that were putting 100% of their bankroll on them every week.

what happened? the books started jacking the prices ridiculously high. 20pt road favorite in the NFL they started 8-0 ATS and went 2-9 ATS the last 11

[curious]

Nicky is sharp, he is here to teach us

Soprano needs to read this real bad

Well, let's see, so far the "lessons" that I have learned from 'Nicky' are:
1. Get the best line of the day (without any clue on how to do that, if I could pick when the best line of the day was, I could just as easy pick the winner)
2. Don't take teams that offer poor value.

Wow, what brilliant insights!

I have another one to add, this one will make you a millionaire in no time.
Ready?
Here it is:
3. Bet more on the winning plays.

[Nicky Santoro]

If you bet 2 dimes a game every game against the Yankees then you don't have to work.

flyer, i am trying to educate the kids here.

treecy, if you bet 2 dimes against NYY on every game in the last 8 yrs, you'd be a 1/4 million dollars..

[curious]

Alright, I'll pretend this is a serious post...

It is easy to find "proof" of this after the fact.


What you are really saying is to find teams that have overvalued lines and go against them. Or find teams that have undervalued lines and back them. Easy enough to say that.

But why would someone have been taking OKC ATS all season? No one would do that.

At best, someone might have started taking OKC ATS after 15 games or so. I'm on OKC almost every day but it depends on how many points they are getting and who they are playing. And it took seeing their ATS record staying strong after a few weeks for me to think that was a +EV trend.

Take the Yankees for example. No way anyone could know on the first day of the season that betting 2 dimes against them every day would turn out a winning strategy. So, at what point is the trend established enough that a person could start taking them confidently? And how do you know the trend won't turn south the moment you start laying money on it?

You can't make this decision based on the previous year's standing. You have to wait until enough of the season is gone by to see that the lines the team is getting are always overvalued.

[Nicky Santoro]

Well, let's see, so far the "lessons" that I have learned from 'Nicky' are:
1. Get the best line of the day (without any clue on how to do that, if I could pick when the best line of the day was, I could just as easy pick the winner)
2. Don't take teams that offer poor value.

Wow, what brilliant insights!

I have another one to add, this one will make you a millionaire in no time.
Ready?
Here it is:
3. Bet more on the winning plays.

Here's an even funnier one, boys.. this is what curious said..

i hit 60% every year for the last 2 yrs in all the sports. LOL LOL

i'll tell you what curious.. if you can do this over 400 games, i will give you 2k, if you don't, you give me 200. fair enough? you post these plays here so we can all see how full of shit you are when you end up hitting 48%.

will curious take my 10-1 offer?

NO -1100
YES +800


if you refuse here, then you are proving to us all that you're a big talker, cause you'll never hit 60%, or nowhere near it...

[curious]

Here's an even funnier one, boys.. this is what curious said..

i hit 60% every year for the last 2 yrs in all the sports. LOL LOL

i'll tell you what curious.. if you can do this over 400 games, i will give you 2k, if you don't, you give me 200. fair enough? you post these plays here so we can all see how full of shit you are when you end up hitting 48%.

will curious take my 10-1 offer?

NO -1100
YES +800


if you refuse here, then you are proving to us all that you're a big talker, cause you'll never hit 60%, or nowhere near it...

I already post all my plays where anyone can check out my record, so I'm not sure what your point is, other than you talk shit to anyone who doesn't show obeisance to your genius.

[Nicky Santoro]

I already post all my plays where anyone can check out my record, so I'm not sure what your point is, other than you talk shit to anyone who doesn't show obeisance to your genius.

so will you put up 200..i will put up my 2k.. just say when.. and tell me where i can find your 60% plays..

[betplom]

[Rich Boy]

If you bet 2 dimes a game every game against the Yankees then you don't have to work.

I actually did the math on this, in the past 7 seasons only 1 season would you be down money betting against the Yanks ML for every game.

This is probably the biggest lock in sports right now. And with all the new off season additions I expect the profit to increase even more.

[Rich Boy]

It is easy to find "proof" of this after the fact.


What you are really saying is to find teams that have overvalued lines and go against them. Or find teams that have undervalued lines and back them. Easy enough to say that.

But why would someone have been taking OKC ATS all season? No one would do that.

At best, someone might have started taking OKC ATS after 15 games or so. I'm on OKC almost every day but it depends on how many points they are getting and who they are playing. And it took seeing their ATS record staying strong after a few weeks for me to think that was a +EV trend.

Take the Yankees for example. No way anyone could know on the first day of the season that betting 2 dimes against them every day would turn out a winning strategy. So, at what point is the trend established enough that a person could start taking them confidently? And how do you know the trend won't turn south the moment you start laying money on it?

You can't make this decision based on the previous year's standing. You have to wait until enough of the season is gone by to see that the lines the team is getting are always overvalued.

I would also like to know this. I remember last year Orlando was great ATS and I was thinking about betting them every game this season. Yet when opening day came around I didnt bet them, I figured the public would be all over them and Vegas would adjust the lines, but they are still dominating ATS. How do I know that they will continue to dominate ATS?

[frostno98]

At years end there will many nba teams around the 50% mark ATS, while 2-4 teams around the 60% and 40% mark ATS.

[pavyracer]

Speaking of dumb posts here is one by Nicky.