Oh I forgot that Dagger doesn't like Crazyl either. I missed the seeping sarcasm. My bad. 
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Tiger Woods swing instructor never won anything, did he? Something to think about.Originally posted by fiveteamerComment -
So you're just a trend bettor......Originally posted by durito
Again, why did Justin, your teaser guru, the one you worship like a god, just go 1 game over .500? And according to Tsoprano, he was so bad he had to delete his spreadsheet.
Could it be.... trends don't last?
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Originally posted by Jetsfan
I don't understand what you are trying to say.Comment -
Originally posted by daggerkobeSo you're just a trend bettor......
Again, why did Justin, your teaser guru, the one you worship like a god, just go 1 game over .500? And according to Tsoprano, he was so bad he had to delete his spreadsheet.
Could it be.... trends don't last?
I'm a what?
Unless you think the scoring distribution in the NFL is going to change, basic strategy teasers will continue to be profitable.
This is not a "trend" nor do I bet such stuff. My methods are far too complex for your pea sized brain to comprehend.Comment -
Originally posted by Jetsfan
He would've won regardless, even with a donkey like burito teaching him.
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Originally posted by durito
Yet your teaser guru went 1 game over .500.
And you keep going 1-5 on your dumb prop bets every night.
Should've stuck with not posting picks, then everyone wouldn't find out what a fraud you are.
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Originally posted by Bread
That was my reaction also, when I saw how you did in the 30 day contest with minus units.
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Originally posted by daggerkobeYet your teaser guru went 1 game over .500.
And you keep going 1-5 on your dumb prop bets every night.
Should've stuck with not posting picks, then everyone wouldn't find out what a fraud you are.
Still waiting for those stats and links.....Comment -
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Stats and links don't mean jack when you go 1 game over .500 and 1-5 on props every night, does it?
That's like Lang saying "Oh look how great my writeup was...." even though his bet lost.
The proof is in the pudding, or as you would say in the fried beans. Your guru went 1 game over .500 and you went 1-5 on props every night.
Go refill your prozac, I heard they are cheaper in 3rd world countries.... explains why you live in a mudhut in El Salvador.
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I made a good earn on teasers this year. I have had 3 different "A" rated books make it known that my teaser action was unwelcome or severely limited.Originally posted by daggerkobeTell me why Justin, your teaser guru, was 1 game above .500 this season?
Tell me why you go 1-5 on prop bets every night, yet claim to withdraw $5k a day?
Tell us more lies about your fake fantasy life.
It was a fairly tough year for people playing just NFL basic strategy teasers... But there's a lot more opportunities than just "crossing the 3 and 7". If you keep your eyes open in Vegas and offshore, you'll find free money all over the place.Comment -
Originally posted by Justin7
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You can also find free money on the sidewalk.Comment -
Originally posted by daggerkobeStats and links don't mean jack when you go 1 game over .500 and 1-5 on props every night, does it?
That's like Lang saying "Oh look how great my writeup was...." even though his bet lost.
The proof is in the pudding, or as you would say in the fried beans. Your guru went 1 game over .500 and you went 1-5 on props every night.
Go refill your prozac, I heard they are cheaper in 3rd world countries.... explains why you live in a mudhut in El Salvador.
Still waiting for that link to my 1-5.
Was it this thread:
?
Oh, no, those hit over 70%. Must have been a different one.Comment -
I never deleted them. I think the sheet disappeared at one point with a software upgrade.Originally posted by Tsoprano
From a learning perspective though, it is pointless to just post random plays, even the strongest ones. I have 100s of bets most weeks, many on both sides of the same game. I don't think people would be impressed to see me play
"Florida -200" and "Oklahoma +203" but I do a lot of that with mispriced derivatives - and not just teasers.Comment -
You're right, we're not impressed. That scalp is a scalp i'd never do.. it's just not worth it.. and here is why....Originally posted by Justin7
If you bet 1,000 on -200
and you bet 990 on +203
then you are guaranteed to win a measly 10 bucks.. but at the same time, you have to tie up $3,000 bucks at 2 books, just to get 10 bucks. Is this really worth it? And it's also risky cause alot of times you put in one side, then go bet the other side, and the line has changed against you.. and now you are playing a negative scalp..
Not worth tying up $3,000 dollars to make 10 bucks.Comment -
I totally agree here Nicky, not worth itOriginally posted by Nicky SantoroComment -
$10/day = $3,650/yearOriginally posted by Nicky SantoroComment -
Must be......Originally posted by duritoStill waiting for that link to my 1-5.
Was it this thread:
?
Oh, no, those hit over 70%. Must have been a different one.
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Originally posted by daggerkobe
So, combine those two and what do you have?Comment -
The opportunity cost of money varies wildly. Thus there are times when I would have passed on even a signifigant scalping opportunity if it tied up money on an NFL Sunday because all my cash was going to be busy. There are other times that your money isn't doing very much - you can't freely move cash these days so if you have an amount sufficient for crunch times tying up cash at other times, or cash at books where you're currently overfunded, then any positive return is good, and even the 3 cents can be real money if you're going large. There are also many complicated reasons why this would be a better play than it looks. In general I would look to play one side but not both in this type of spot.
As for paying for picks, the problem is that we're not talking about people who make money by picking. Justin7's strategies mostly have little or nothing to do with picking the right side.Comment -
A loser?Originally posted by durito
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not necessarily.. that line won't always be that way.. you can play one side and then go confirm other side and bam... line changed. now you are playing into a neg scalp.. ouch.Originally posted by fearless
and if this book has that 30 sec delay, then good night, 94% of the time, that line is changing.. I used to get this 99% of the time when i scalped at those books like betmania or betroyal...etc.. They always fukked me..
The best thing to do with this -200/+203 is to play the strong side and that's it.. so if real line is -210/+175 and you get handed a -200/+203, the smart thing here is not to scalp it and tie up 3k for 10 bucks, but the smart thing to do here is to only play +203.. your ROI will be higher and you won't tie up much money OR get caught in the middle of neg scalp... and all for a measly 10 bucks...
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I would wait for more profitable opportunities than the one above to get free moneyComment -
Justin is saying he's doing it all the time so I guess he's not having the problems you're talking about. I'll be interested to see how he answers you. Thanks for the feedback.Originally posted by Nicky Santoronot necessarily.. that line won't always be that way.. you can play one side and then go confirm other side and bam... line changed. now you are playing into a neg scalp.. ouch.
and if this book has that 30 sec delay, then good night, 94% of the time, that line is changing.. I used to get this 99% of the time when i scalped at those books like betmania or betroyal...etc.. They always fukked me..
The best thing to do with this -200/+203 is to play the strong side and that's it.. so if real line is -210/+175 and you get handed a -200/+203, the smart thing here is not to scalp it and tie up 3k for 10 bucks, but the smart thing to do here is to only play +203.. your ROI will be higher and you won't tie up much money OR get caught in the middle of neg scalp... and all for a measly 10 bucks...Comment -
Boys I said the picks would be valuable if you were sitting at PC and were notified the second they made a play. If you had books open and had pop up of the pick you could make the play and maybe the line didnt move or maybe it did just a tad, would still be valuable to have these guys playsComment -
That brings to mind something I've wondered about. The books get all the sharps plays. If you worked at a book and you knew you somebody was great, couldn't you use your inside info concerning what that guy was betting to trail him at another book? How can that not be happening?Originally posted by onthewhatComment -
even he'll agree that just betting the +203 when real line is -210/+175 is way smarter and much higher on the ROI than scalping a -200/+203 and tying up 3k to win 10 bucks, and hoping the line don't change against you, which it will every now and then...Originally posted by fearlessComment -
Bingo! That's called taking "half a scalp", and you almost never sell it off at -EV once you can handle the volatility.Originally posted by Nicky Santoro
If you can handicap at 51% and get good numbers, you'll get rich.Comment
