Any help

wizcodlifa · 05-16-13, 08:50 PM

Help please!

So i have posted many times, but figure why not try some more?

I just really need help with how to cap games. I bet on football, ball, and MLB. I would love a model and or a equation or just some tips on what statistics to look at.

broadway6 · 05-16-13, 09:04 PM

Originally posted by wizcodlifa

So i have posted many times, but figure why not try some more?

I just really need help with how to cap games. I bet on football, ball, and MLB. I would love a model and or a equation or just some tips on what statistics to look at.

just pick a dog or two a day and you can go .500 and make money..

Double Bogey · 05-16-13, 09:23 PM

Originally posted by wizcodlifa

So i have posted many times, but figure why not try some more?

I just really need help with how to cap games. I bet on football, ball, and MLB. I would love a model and or a equation or just some tips on what statistics to look at.

Looks like someone didn't pay attention in math class. no one is going to give you a winning model. you have to develop them yourself. Open up excel and experiment

wizcodlifa · 05-16-13, 09:24 PM

Originally posted by Double Bogey

Looks like someone didn't pay attention in math class. no one is going to give you a winning model. you have to develop them yourself. Open up excel and experiment

the funny thing is im actually a math major. but that has nothing to do with developing a succesful model.

hutennis · 05-16-13, 10:25 PM

OK, I'll try it one more time.

I think you are under huge misconception here.
It seems you are under impression that there is some fairly easily obtainable way to become a life long winner in sports betting.
You call it "a model and or a equation".

You also seem to be upset that you are not getting any help with it even though you are ready "to pay some money, but a reasonable price".
The problem is that you are asking for something that just is not there. Rather it is there, but it is not there for you. Not only for you though.
It is not there for me either, or anybody in this forum or, for that matter, for almost anybody in a world period.

The thing is, that a model or an equation (algorithm) you are talking about does exist. But it is highly propitiatory.
It has been developed and constantly maintained by some of the smartest people in a world (computer programmers software engineers statisticians mathematicians etc.) who are paid, on a regular basis, untold millions for it, so the end user, bookmakers, can use it to set up
odds they offer to a public and in turn make untold billions.

You will never be able to decipher the code they use - it is astronomically complicated, but you can always see a final result of their effort.
It is implied probability derived from opening odds. After that, market forces take over and this initial number is being farther sharpened with lightning speed by new information, money flow and other factors.

So, in so many words, this is very, very hard game to beat.
To come in a public internet forum and ask for providing information that would be able to successfully compete with enormous effort put
into creating already extremely competitive numbers in exchange for a few bucks is beyond naive. It is outright silly.
Don't take it personally for a change. Just use logic and common sense. Think critically and you will inevitably draw the same conclusion.

Logic, common sense and critical thinking are your best friends. Use them, and you will clearly see what should and should not work and why.

Well, to save you some time, the way you are looking at is the dead end, if ever there was one.

MikeTizzy · 05-16-13, 11:26 PM

wow i was wrong, you arent trolling Hutennis. You're one sharpy cookie afterall, i commend you for that.
You hit all the buttons on the nose with this post! Ill tell u what tho, i understand completely the position u take, the question is how much do u know?? and how much do u think the sharpest out there knows? i know a bit, but am still working towards the tree of knowledge. You forgot also, public perception creates opening lines. And each sport has its own Independent game dynamics and what metrics controls certain scenario outcomes. In the public eye its general "sports betting" but for a financial analyst or an entrepreneur, i see this industry as an investment opportunity, you forget the odds makers know how sheepy the public is for their bias ways. Line values does not correlate with in game odds for the most part. That's where the sharpest investors make their money.

hutennis · 05-17-13, 12:04 AM

Originally posted by MikeTizzy

You forgot also, public perception creates opening lines. And each sport has its own Independent game dynamics and what metrics controls certain scenario outcomes. In the public eye its general "sports betting" but for a financial analyst or an entrepreneur, i see this industry as an investment opportunity, you forget the odds makers know how sheepy the public is for their bias ways. Line values does not correlate with in game odds for the most part. That's where the sharpest investors make their money.

Yeah. I've heard it before. Both in sports betting and in financial markets.

Just make sure you are not confusing your poorly substantiated opinion with ultimate truth in order to justify your "investment strategy".
Yes, madness of the crowd is there to be exploited. The problem is that it is not that much of it available to be exploited and whatever is there is being corrected way faster than you think.
Wisdom of the crowd is much more widely spread than you give it credit for and it will break you before you'd know what hit you.

MikeTizzy · 05-17-13, 12:30 AM

thats the oddsmakers JOB. you hit it right there mr. Hutennis.

dynamics are constantly changing. Value is all about when it hasnt ran its public course. *ahem* what the Grizzlies are to what ppl "think" they are, cash cows are what ppl dont realize. Mavericks that championship run a while back, LA Kings last yr in hockey, SF Giants sweeping the "favorite" Tigers in last year WS. Wisdom of the crowd u say? its not as fast as u think dude. The real faves according to the metrics and dynamics of how baseball works was SF was the real in-game faves to win each game, and they did!! But why odds-makers make Tigers always -145 or more each game? go look up these examples, and maybe u might start to understand value and "markets"

you are very smart, i dig it!

hutennis · 05-17-13, 12:48 AM

Make sure you dont forget The Law of Small Numbers. Small numbers is a land of unbelievable extremes!

Second. Make sure you are not falling for good, old conformation bias, by cherry picking only examples that confirm your theory and ignoring all dis conforming data.
And a hindsight bias too, of course. It is all so crystal clear and explainable when we look back, is not it?
Very. very common fallacies! As human as sex and BBQ.

DARKBAY · 05-17-13, 01:30 AM

If ever there was a winning method nobody would give it out ....

mr.ed · 05-17-13, 06:20 AM

Originally posted by wizcodlifa

So i have posted many times, but figure why not try some more?

I just really need help with how to cap games. I bet on football, ball, and MLB. I would love a model and or a equation or just some tips on what statistics to look at. I am willing to pay some money, but a reasonable price.

Wiz...3 books should you read that will be a good starting point.

1. Weighing the odds in Sports Betting - King Yao
2. Sharp Sports Betting - Stanford Wong
3. Conquering Risk - Elihu Feustel

Set a weekend aside and read all three of them and then decide if you want to have a go at it.