What are your thoughts on fading the public as a strategy?

[tropolis]

I think it works more than it doesn't, I'm not sure what conditions I should set to bet for it.

I'm thinking

60-80: solid fade
80-100: maybe too questionable?

what do you guys think?

[reno cool]

would suggest attempting to understand the kinds of teams, situations public overbets, not blindly following sides that don't get much backing.

[Legends]

fading the public will win you money in the long run, but you need to pick your spots more than just playing against every team the public is hitting at a certain %. You need to keep in mind that if you're fading the public you'll almost always be on the bad teams catching points. The public plays top teams, favorites and overs. You'll almost always be betting against the Celtics, Cavs, Pistons and Lakers in basketball. Doing so against the Lakers would have made you 10-0 in their L10, but I think the money train won't keep going along so smoothly. I think they cover in at least one of their next two (@ NOH, vs BOS).

I think good public fades tomorrow are UC-Riverside +5.5, Detroit/Chicago over 199.5, Portland -7.5, and Santa Clara +4. All I feel have reasons for other than "public is betting other team", so I consider them smart plays.

[l7ustin]

I have a friend that watches public betting and just tries to pick up on lines he knows will move. He will say bet on Lakers +3.5 today and by tip off it may be down to Hornets +2 so he will bet that too, he plays mainly on matchbook so he losses less juice. by doing this he says he will certainly win one side yielding him a small loss and a potential for a large profit on a middle.

he does ok i suppose but sometimes his lines dont move much and he has like no chance at middling

[fearless]

If you see a spread get bet up from -1 to -3.5+, you're usually safe taking the other side +3.5.

[LT Profits]

If it were that easy, the faders would quickly become the "public".

That said, it does work with reverse line moves.

[Richkas]

wont work

been there done that

[Richkas]

If it were that easy, the faders would quickly become the "public".

That said, it does work with reverse line moves.

quit telling people

[JBC77]

The whole "public" thing is overated. If you look at each sporting event individually who the public bets on has no bearing on the outcome of the event. None whatsoever.

I don't even look at who the "public" is betting on. It doesn't matter to me and I don't want it to sway my bet one way of the other so I tend to ignore it alltogether.

[LT Profits]

quit telling people

Not exactly a secret, Sports Insight's business is based on this premise.

[Richkas]

Not exactly a secret, Sports Insight's business is based on this premise.

right, but this fool didnt know it.

[LT Profits]

The whole "public" thing is overated. If you look at each sporting event individually who the public bets on has no bearing on the outcome of the event. None whatsoever.

I don't even look at who the "public" is betting on. It doesn't matter to me and I don't want it to sway my bet one way of the other so I tend to ignore it alltogether.

Never said that the betting percentages had any bearing on the games. But it is always nice to know who the sharps are on, as they are right more often than they are wrong.

[JBC77]

Never said that the betting percentages had any bearing on the games. But it is always nice to know who the sharps are on, as they are right more often than they are wrong.

LT, the services that put out public, sharp bet percentages......where do they compile that data from? Which books? I think it's impossible to validate anything they put out.

While we're on the subject. Who's to really say what a square or a sharp really is? It's percerption, again, that has no bearing on the outcome of an event. A better guage would be line movement, wouldn't it?

Handicapping successfully long term is difficult enough.....if people add in the whole public, non-public, square-sharp thing it's easy to overthink the bet in my opinion.

[THEGREAT30]

Phuck the public unless I need to go to the store to load my ********. Cap the game.

[l7ustin]

JBC

the bookies know who the sharps are. I assume if they are working with sports books it wouldnt be hard to figure it out. But even if you don't take notice that say Billy Joe Bob wins 70% of his bets thus making him a "sharp"

If Billy Joe Bob is betting 10k per game, and the rest of the public is betting $10-20. We will assume Billy Joe is a sharp because if he losses his 10k a couple of times he is out a significant amount of money and wont be gambling anymore?

[Otters27]

by the time you follow the sharps you are getting a worse number than they got.

Choose a pal at work that thinks he knows sports. Ask him for 3 plays a day. Bet against what he picks. Use matchbook so you can get the best odds.

[flyingillini]

Where is Nicky to chime in on this subject. Should be interesting to see his post.

[tropolis]

I don't know, from what I've seen betting against the public is more of a smart move than to go with them. Maybe instead of just blindly fading them, watch the line and if it falls with a high public number as well, maybe that makes it an even better play. A key line move with say a public percentage over 60 going against the public I think would be a good play, right?