D2D's NBA, NHL and MLB Daily wagers.......

[bostonphoenix]

Where do you bet your live amounts? I know things change quickly but it seems I'm always too late to get in on them.

[Dollars2Donuts]

Love your work , I don't like to post to much as I don't want to clutter up the thread , but your money management and selections are top class . Your doing your best and making money people just have to have common sense and look at a year long grind in growing the bank. It is hard work keeping up to date with all investments but nothing comes easy in life and I would prefer sitting on my pc placing wagers than going to a mundane 9 to 5 job. Good luck today, after he last few days we may be due to a downward trend but there is no reason we will keep on winning.
All thebest from the land of Oz.

Thanks man....but always feel free to post good questions, etc on the thread....I am glad to know you are following....and welcome to the club.

D2D, in response to your post a few hours ago, I just wanted to say how much I appreciate your picks. I have full confidence tailing you in every sport (except baseball in which I do my own thing). I know I've made money, and will continue to make money tailing you.

So thank you so much. You couldn't do it any better (except maybe post your ATP plays earlier because I get tired :P). BOL and keeping winning.

Lol, thanks man....I will try and get themn up earlier, but I have this thing that gets in the way....it is called a life, lol.

Seriously though, I live with a great chick, have an amazing and rewarding career, get to the gym a few times a week (first time ever at Yoga earlier tonight), travel loads for work and for pleasure, spend loads of time with family and friends.....yet it all seems to fit.


Again, thanks for all the kudos boys....I get a lot of PM`s as well, saying all sorts of nice crap and I just want to say that it is ALL appreciated. Again, I hope everyone takes my advice from earlier and enjoys every day!!!

[TO]

D2D, i cant bet the overall o/u but how does under 93 look for 2h?

[Dollars2Donuts]

Also, would like to lay off our over bet....but oéu has already dropped to 182. Let`s look for a run in scoring and see if we can get it back up to 185+ and get rid of it! If it doesn`t go back up we sit and pray for OT and a Memphis win!!!!

5dimes...the best outfit out there.

I try and warn people with asw much advance notice as possible....(see above)....it isnt always possible and sometimes in the past I have hurt myself because I didnèt want to do reversals without everyone knowing.....I cannot do that any more....I will always let people know as best I can (and if they do it on their own that is cool too), but in the end I have to look out for my bankroll more than anything else....

Cheers and GO MEMPHIS!!!!

[Dollars2Donuts]

D2D, i cant bet the overall o/u but how does under 93 look for 2h?

If you have the over 185 you CANNOT take the under 93....that would put you in jeopardy of being MIDDLED and losing both. Please do not do that to yourself....hope for a bunch of better shooting or a TON of 4th quarter fouling (if OKC is behind this IS possible as this is their elimination game),

AGAIN, do not touch the 93

[TO]

Yeah I just realized thanks D2D, I also seen the spread+6 for memphis so I put that in. Hopefully I get the win for that and the over! goodluck to everyone who's betting on this game!

[bostonphoenix]

Is jumping on the under at 180.5 a reasonable play?

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Thanks.

[Dollars2Donuts]

Is jumping on the under at 180.5 a reasonable play?

I would not....and if you have the over at all do not do it. I am watching and cannot tell where this is going and I always have a feeling. Just wait for better spots.

[nlin]

The one thing I have noticed is this.....

I have watched people repeatedly start to watch my thread, tail some of my plays and then disappear. I ask myself 'why is this? We have been winning....' and the only thing I can figure is that they are either playing 'select' games from my lists or that their money management skills are not working with a system where you are betting so many games.

I have PM'd a few of these guys and they are telling me 'I went bust and am on a break' or 'I had a bad night and went on a break'.....how is this possible unless there is chasing going on. NOW, I can assure you that I am a degen....I really am, BUT I revel in having the self control not to chase losses. I know some people here think that some of my live plays are chases, but I can assure you they are not, those are plays that I believe have as much or more +EV as the rest of my pre-game plays.

Come on guys....I really just want to see people winning....make a plan, stick to it and cash your cheque!! If I have a few losing days (which happens to everyone) you have seen that it does NOT affect my betting at all...in fact instead of going bigger I tend to go a little smaller to protect what I have until it gets going again.

I cannot predict the future boys, but we are 90 days in and have shown progression in almost every 10 day segment along the way....and after the last two days (plus this morning) I am back to within a few bucks of stepping up to my next level ($75 units). One unit right now is less than .5% of my current bankroll, and that is perfectly manageable....when I step up I will move back to .600% ($75) until I can build my bank until I get back down to where $75 represents .5% again.....then rinse and repeat.

I really want everyone to be successful at this.....again I am not saying I am any sort of Mesiah, BUT years (and I mean YEARS) of bankroll busts in poker, billiards and golf have taught me that is NOT the way to live, and even more, not the way to prosper.

The last thing I have to get off of my chest....when somebody tails one play and tells me 'I am tailing THIS ONE play, hope it comes through' or 'I was on your POD and it lost!!'.....in those cases there is clearly nothing I can do guys!! When betting ONE game here and there there is something inevitable that is going to strike and that is VARIANCE!!!!

LASTLY:

I have been saying, since my first day, that the reason I play SO MANY games is that is the only way that I know how to beat variance. As we all know variance tends to smooth out with volume.....I know nobody else bets like me, I know that most people think it is impossible to beat variance, but I can assure you that VOLUME is the BEST way to beat it over a sustained timeframe. Would mny winning % be a little higher if I bet three games a day? Possibly....but I don't think so. I truly believe that I can find a slight edge across a number of sports and in a number of games and in this game, betting with a great book with reduced juice ALL you need is a slight edge to produce winning results.

Anyway.....once again GL tonight and let's kill it!!


D2D

Hey D2D,

I think it all comes down to bad or nonexistent BR management and impatience.

You recommended earlier in the thread that someone starting to tail you should have any where from 8-9 grand but should be possible with 4-5 (if I recall correctly).

With a little bit of reading on units, sizing, and general management, someone with a bankroll as small as mine (1-1.5 grand) can also tail.

This is where the impatience comes in. You have a good number of bets even on your "light days" (just because there are so many sports (ATP, NHL, MLB, NBA, etc.)) and then people that tail with a smaller BR most likely become dis-enchanted with the down-sized units. (I'm only risking $3-5 a bet, why am I wasting my time?)

Everyone likes to hit a 10-1 or 15-1 parlay but these are the same people that don't realize that gambling is a marathon, not a sprint. Winning is winning no matter your unit size.

[Dollars2Donuts]

This is disappointing...I guess I knew an OKC run was going to happen, but Memphis allowed this to happen.....anyway, letès hope they get it done for us!!!!

Also, Nats are down 2-1 in the final game of our series bet....so go NATS!! I am shocked that Grienke came back for this game (had no idea) and that he has looked so damn good after only one ML start.

[Dollars2Donuts]

Hey D2D,

I think it all comes down to bad or nonexistent BR management and impatience.

You recommended earlier in the thread that someone starting to tail you should have any where from 8-9 grand but should be possible with 4-5 (if I recall correctly).

With a little bit of reading on units, sizing, and general management, someone with a bankroll as small as mine (1-1.5 grand) can also tail.

This is where the impatience comes in. You have a good number of bets even on your "light days" (just because there are so many sports (ATP, NHL, MLB, NBA, etc.)) and then people that tail with a smaller BR most likely become dis-enchanted with the down-sized units. (I'm only risking $3-5 a bet, why am I wasting my time?)

Everyone likes to hit a 10-1 or 15-1 parlay but these are the same people that don't realize that gambling is a marathon, not a sprint. Winning is winning no matter your unit size.

Pretty much bang on....anyone can tail if they translate their unit sizwe to proper sizes.....at $1000 most days somebody could not tail me as I have anywhere from $1500 to $4000 pending at 4pm every day, but anyone who wants to just needs to know that a unit for me currently is $50 then just do the math.....

[ohumad]

"An amazing and rewarding career!?" Are you sure you work? We have reached that level of intimacy haven't we? I'm curious because you also said you tend to be a guy who "thinks differently". And 6.5% ROI for 90 days that's a pretty damn good GIC.

[Dollars2Donuts]

Lol

"An amazing and rewarding career!?" Are you sure you work? We have reached that level of intimacy haven't we? I'm curious because you also said you tend to be a guy who "thinks differently". And 6.5% ROI for 90 days that's a pretty damn good GIC.

Yes it would be.....if I had $190k to invest anyway (in Vancouver every $$ you have is required if you want to own a proper home)....remember that 150 days ago I started with a $250 deposit on Bodog....

And yes, I definitely work....I manage a team of Sales People across Western Canada....the company I work for has seen revenue grow from $5,000,000 five years ago to what will amount to over $50,000,000 this year.

And yes, I definitely do think differently....and I cap that way as well....I actually just went back to my first postings from 90 days ago....funny how times change. I took a load of abuse that first day, as I didnt really know what I was getting into!

[Nicksweger42]

So you are shooting to win about 8 units on Boston series altogether?

[OperatorX]

You made me a lot of money tonight. Thanks buddy!

[Dollars2Donuts]

You made me a lot of money tonight. Thanks buddy!

[Minnesota Niice]

Good night man Hope I helped someone out with the Mariners win

[Dollars2Donuts]

Yep, great night.....a little sad that the Nats just had men on first and second with NO outs and could not bring the tying run home with the meat of their order up.....surprised that we did not see Harper come in the pinch hit....wish he had of played....if we had known that he would sit this game and that Grienke was coming back I do not make that bet....in fact I wish I didnèt know that MLB series bets existed (I didnt until three days ago!! lol).

Stats and tomorrowès ATP picks to come later.....no time to get them in until late tonight.

[Sick_in_the_Head]

What time do you think you'll have them in?

[tto827]

Washington leaves 9 on base.... can't really cap that stuff... Should have thrown the Royals series in here instead ...my fault (I better not fukkin jinx myself)... Anyway, I just started to check out these series bets, but they definitely seem like something to take a look at.... Nice job tonight!

[Dollars2Donuts]

Washington leaves 9 on base.... can't really cap that stuff... Should have thrown the Royals series in here instead ...my fault (I better not fukkin jinx myself)... Anyway, I just started to check out these series bets, but they definitely seem like something to take a look at.... Nice job tonight!

Thanks man, I think it was a great bet, but we got unlucky with Grienke coming back, Harper sitting and the Nats unable to get any runs in....like I said in the 8th they had 2 on and nobody out (man on third)....you score a run in that scenario 8é10 times or better, especially at the heart of your order.

Anyway, I will watch them for a bit, but going to concentrate on continuing the regular capping in the MLB.

[Dollars2Donuts]

OK, the third nice day in row for us.....we have been hitting well in every sport.

Today:

13-4-0 (including the Grizzlies Series Win and the Nats Series Loss)

+ $790.50



Totals (91 documented days):

686-558-35

+ $ 13,139.85


Play of the Day (No Change):

35 - 18

+ $4944.93


Really an amazing run, we are 36-19 in the last 9 days in MLB, but even better we are:

43-19-3 and up over $2200 in the last 3 days

The ATP picks will be up in the next while, Just working on them now.


D2D

[Dollars2Donuts]

OK, tomorrowès early bets....Kohlschreiber is my favourite (as you can tell) as he is in fine form and his opponent doesnèt need to exert himself a week before the French Open....Ferrer is quite the player on clay but has struggled all year with over half of his matches on clay going to 3 sets.....I think Kohl makes this really tough on him as he knows he has no shot at the French....

Anyway, GL everyone and I will check in before the evening matches start again....

179877456-1	5/16/13 3:35am	$62.50	$50.00		Pending	5/16/13 6:00am ATP Tennis 104 A.Dolgopolov Games Won +5½ -125* <small>vs</small> N.Djokovic Games Won
179877456-2	5/16/13 3:35am	$180.00	$150.00		Pending	5/16/13 9:15am ATP Tennis 116 P.Kohlschreiber Games Won +4 -120* <small>vs</small> D.Ferrer Games Won
179877456-3	5/16/13 3:35am	$125.00	$100.00		Pending	5/16/13 8:45am ATP Tennis 121 E.Gulbis Games Won +5 -125* <small>vs</small> R.Nadal Games Won
179877456-4	5/16/13 3:35am	$20.00	$82.60		Pending	5/16/13 6:15am ATP Tennis 126 Benoit Paire +413* <small>vs</small> Juan Martin del Potro
179877456-5	5/16/13 3:35am	$115.00	$100.00		Pending	5/16/13 6:15am ATP Tennis 128 B.Paire Games Won +4½ -115* <small>vs</small> J.M.del Potro Games Won
179877456-6	5/16/13 3:35am	$50.00	$62.50		Pending	5/16/13 7:45am ATP Tennis 132 Marcel Granollers +125* <small>vs</small> Jeremy Chardy
179877456-7	5/16/13 3:35am	$60.00	$50.00		Pending	5/16/13 7:45am ATP Tennis 133 J.Chardy Games Won/M.Granollers Games Won Over 22½ -120*

[bill2266]

im looking to follow you thanks

[Dollars2Donuts]

im looking to follow you thanks

welcome to the thread!!

[thienlong82]

Nice record

[UsManyDead]

Hy. Man you are good, but you are not only good at betting but also very kind to share it with everybody. Where have I been all this time?! You are definitely worth following. I had an NBA system this season, but it wasn't profitable in the end. Now I understand why. I tried not to bet a lot of games, I thought selecting 2-3 games per night at a good S/R should do the job. But in the end all thing come round back, and all the good S/R gets to near 50%-53%. And that's when you see that you make small money or you're in red. After a while I searched and saw that betting lots of games per day is the way to make money. You only need to hit them at around 53% and make little money from each day.
You are onto something big here. I am very curios how are you able to select so many games from different sports. Do you have a system that you use? Or is this all from your knowledge of the sport?
Thanks and GL.

[thes0vereign]

Paire's first serve was downright nasty. His shot placement was pretty strong too, Del Potro never got into a rhythm and ended up frozen in place on multiple points.

Cheers!

EDIT: Gulbis/Nadal is on ESPN3 with Gulbis working a 2-0 lead in the first set, should be a good one!

[OperatorX]

Boom Benoit Paire with the biggest win of his career

[latino61992]

been following for a while.. only posted a few times... i did send u a private message just had a question about something... great work, gonna start following all plays

[bostonphoenix]

Seems like its going to be a nice morning.

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Thanks!

[thes0vereign]

Seems like its going to be a nice morning.

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I'm doing some work and following the live score on web looking at the match Nadal (5) v. Gulbis (Q). What does the Q Stand for?

Qualifiers - Players who play in a qualifying round to earn their spot in the tournament

[koch & balls]

thanks for the great play on paire!

[k2ds]

You do seem to have a streak going. I found you a couple of weeks ago and you are Great!

[Dollars2Donuts]

Paire's first serve was downright nasty. His shot placement was pretty strong too, Del Potro never got into a rhythm and ended up frozen in place on multiple points.

Cheers!

EDIT: Gulbis/Nadal is on ESPN3 with Gulbis working a 2-0 lead in the first set, should be a good one!

Boom Benoit Paire with the biggest win of his career

been following for a while.. only posted a few times... i did send u a private message just had a question about something... great work, gonna start following all plays

Seems like its going to be a nice morning.

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Thanks!

thanks for the great play on paire!

You do seem to have a streak going. I found you a couple of weeks ago and you are Great!

good morning everyone. Very happy about Paire picking up that Huge win taking down Del Potro!! Also Gulbis has locked in his +5 victory against Nadal.

Hopefully the day keeps it up!